Skip to main content

Currently Skimming:

2 Drivers of Change
Pages 35-88

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 35...
... 3. Developments at the edge of the grid such as distributed generation, storage, microgrids, energy-management resources, and energy efficiency measures.
From page 36...
... , the digital economy, and energy efficiency technologies -- illustrate the kinds of changes that could shape future electricity demand. Electric Vehicles While the transportation sector currently accounts for a relatively small portion of total U.S.
From page 37...
... Industrial use of electricity was less, at only 12 percent of industrial energy use. SOURCE: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 2018, "Energy US 2018," https://flowcharts.
From page 38...
... . If hydrogen vehicles become widespread, green hydrogen production through e­ lectrolysis
From page 39...
... FIGURE 2.3  Daily EV charging profile (Level 2 chargers only) on the UCSD campus during a week (February 23–29, 2020)
From page 40...
... Department of Agriculture Rural Utility Service Energy Efficiency and Conservation Loan Program (RUS-EECLP) to finance meter-tied efficiency improvements installed by local contractors, recovering the investment via an on-bill tariff to repay the original loan (NASEM, 2016)
From page 41...
... Finding 2.1: Future electricity demand will be shaped by the widespread adoption of a variety of potential electricity-intensive and/or demand-modulating technologies (e.g., EVs, digital technologies, energy effi ciency)
From page 42...
... The sector is also responsible for emissions of methane, from venting associated with production of coal, and from leaks at wellheads and pipeline systems related to the production and delivery of natural gas for ultimate combustion in power plants. Methane is a potent GHG: although its residence time in the atmosphere is shorter than carbon dioxide (a few decades rather than more than a century)
From page 43...
... Other research aligns with these findings and points to three major factors explaining decarbonization in electricity: replacement of coal by natural gas, replacement of coal by renewables, and increased energy efficiency (Houser, 2019)
From page 44...
... Each state that is a member of RGGI decides how to spend the funds raised; most of the money is devoted to programs that deploy clean energy or expand energy efficiency programs (Hibbard et al., 2018)
From page 45...
... . These preferences align with the ubiquity of RPS policies, clean energy standards (CES)
From page 46...
... FIGURE 2.5 (a) A 2018 Pew Research Center polling of percentage of adults who favor or oppose expanding each energy resource, with most people favoring renewables regardless of demographic.
From page 47...
... , battery storage, and highly efficient heat pumps, with equipment sellers offering consumer-friendly services and pricing; • Innovation among manufacturers and sellers of devices and consumer products that can control the timing and/or magnitude of electricity use by appliances or other equipment in customer buildings; • Interest among industrial and other large energy users to increase energy efficiency and decrease electricity costs through deployment of combined heat and power (CHP) ; • Promising technologies including advanced refrigerants, the use of microwaves to enhance catalysts in chemical production, and various potential developments in other industrial processes using plasma or ultraviolet light; • A desire to supply local generation to service new high-demand facilities such as data centers and fast charger sites for EVs; • The adoption of advanced automation by distribution utilities; • Concerns about climate change and the need to achieve deep decarbonization; • Customer concerns about supply vulnerability in the face of potential natural and human-induced disruptions; and • A desire among a few to become completely self-sufficient and disconnected from the grid.
From page 48...
... . BtM resources also include energy storage, as with batteries, and heat in water heaters, emergency generators, and Internet of Things (IoT)
From page 49...
... for onshore wind (at 60 percent of the investment value) ; a 2-year extension of the ITC for solar investment; a 1-year extension of tax credits for energy efficient homes; a new ITC for offshore wind projects; new tax incentives for various forms of energy storage; and $2.36 billion for smart grid technology (Morehouse, 2020)
From page 50...
... DER-induced bidirectional power flows require coordination with existing distribution-system operations and protection equipment, but also potentially with operators of bulk power systems. In this context, utilities are developing Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS)
From page 51...
... . Offshore wind is gaining acceptance in many coastal states, driven in part by those states' policies to reduce power-sector GHG emissions and by interest in hosting the jobs associated with those large-scale projects (Cape Wind Project, 2017; Love, 2014; Williams and Whitcomb, 2008)
From page 52...
... , which is not an economic use of resources. At other times, renewables can underproduce and require easily dispatchable load-following from other energy resources (e.g., natural gas)
From page 53...
... . Despite upfront costs, energy efficiency and weatherization improvements ultimately decrease energy burden on a household (Drehobl and Ross, 2016)
From page 54...
... Clean energy policies should take into account the far-reaching value of increased funding and participation in programs like LIHEAP/WAP, not only to make electricity affordable, but to confer other health and resilience co-benefits through energy efficiency improvements (Reames, 2016)
From page 55...
... SOURCE: (a) LADWP, 2017, "Energy Metrics Data Initative," pre sented at the California Energy Commission Integrated Energy Policy Report Workshop, May 16.
From page 56...
... Although bill-payment assistance can provide short-term help, investments in energy efficiency by governments, utilities, and consumers can reduce electricity demand and provide long-term sav ings on electricity bills. As the electricity system transitions, and new strategies and technologies are adopted by higher income customers, care should be taken to ensure that electricity is an essential service that is universally available and affordable, and that the externalities that arise from its production and use do not disproportionately burden those least able to deal with them.
From page 57...
... This is true for jobs in energy efficiency as well. Estimates of the number of jobs in renewable energy, natural gas, and coal vary according to assumptions about energy transitions (Hamilton, 2017)
From page 58...
... (For example, see Box 2.3.) As an example of a transition-related workforce shift, jobs in energy efficiency tend to pay wages that exceed U.S.
From page 59...
... Energy efficiency in buildings and industry as well as solar photovoltaics create the highest number of jobs per million dollars of investment (Figure 2.2.1)
From page 60...
... . Its closure came not for regu latory reasons, but from competitive pressure created by low natural gas prices: in 2016, customers were paying 15 percent more for electricity from NGS than if they bought wholesale power from other markets (Hurlbut et al., 2016)
From page 61...
... As noted above, under some technological pathways, deep decarbonization might be consistent with continued consumption of natural gas if plants are outfitted with CCS technology or if the gas supply is decarbonized, such as through increased utilization of biogas or blending of conventional natural gas with hydrogen gas that is produced using non-CO2 emitting methods. For several reasons, it is probable that the fraction of power generated by nuclear plants will shrink over the next 10 to 30 years (Morgan et al., 2018)
From page 62...
... Chapter 3 provides a map showing states that have renewable generation standards and clean energy goals, and Chapter 5 discusses the strategies for integrating increasing levels of intermittent renewables. Nevertheless, it seems safe to assume that the next several decades will see a greater portion of power generation coming from wind and solar.
From page 63...
... This is likely to be true even if other factors work to promote more distributed generation. As discussed in Chapter 3, many states have policy commitments to add renewable and other zero-carbon electrical resources, and in many places expansion of the bulk power system to connect regions with high-quality wind and solar resources with high-density load centers could help enable those transitions.
From page 64...
... Some illustrative examples include changes in state law that allow and facilitate small microgrids owned by third parties and connected to the utility-operated distribution system; incentives for the adoption of EVs, charging systems, rooftop solar, and small-scale storage technologies; and new rate designs that allow customers to take advantage of real-time changes in power prices. In the future, using innovations at the states as policy laboratories might help motivate changes to elements of the grid that have long been thought to be essential functions of a single, government-regulated (or owned)
From page 65...
... In some cases, they also allow the bulk power system to be operated "closer to the edge" so as to extract maximum output and benefit from existing assets.
From page 66...
... This third dimension is distinct from the second because DC could play much a much bigger role in a highly centralized grid -- for example, the DC lines that carry bulk power and back-to-back DC interties that make it feasible to subdivide and manage large grids reliably. DC and power electronics could also facilitate highly reliable local microgrids that integrate large numbers of decentralized devices and storage.
From page 67...
... FIGURE 2.11  Three examples from the many possible dimensions that could be used to frame scenarios of possible grid structures. Others could involve factors such as the amount of storage, the mix of generation and the degree of decarbonization, and the extent to which measures are taken to ensure resilient supply to meet critical social services.
From page 68...
... 68 THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC POWER IN THE UNITED STATES While several other dimensions could be added, such as the extent and nature of energy storage, the mix of generation and the degree of decarbonization, or the extent to which measures are taken to ensure resilient supply to meet critical social services, these three are sufficient for the purpose here of illustrating and exploring the approach of a variety of grid structures -- some of which involve incremental changes from today's grid, and some of which involve fundamentally different architectures. Figures 2.12 and 2.13 combine the three axes from Figure 2.11 to present six example scenarios of possible grid structures.
From page 69...
... DRIVERS OF CHANGE 69 FIGURE 2.13  Illustration of how an additional dimension from Figure 2.11 can be included to illustrate two more future possible power system scenarios (S5 and S6)
From page 70...
... , continued availability of power generators that use easily stored fuel (e.g., natural gas or hydrogen) , and modest additional amounts of electricity storage and demand response for power balance and reliability.
From page 71...
... The motivation for developing such a system would be to efficiently move large amounts of power from remotely located sources of industry-scale wind and solar power generation. Scenario S6 ("Changes in the number of regional interconnects")
From page 72...
... 2020. "2020 Utility Energy Efficiency Scorecard." Americans for an Energy Efficient Economy.
From page 73...
... 2019. Machine Learning from Schools About Energy Efficiency.
From page 74...
... 2016. Lifting the High Energy Burden in America's Largest Cities: How Energy Efficiency Can Improve Low Income and Underserved Communities.
From page 75...
... 2018. "The Economic Impacts of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative on Nine Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States: Review of RGGI's Third Three-Year Compliance Period (2015–2017)
From page 76...
... 2019. "Project 2X to 2050: Accelerating the Clean Energy Transition Reliably and Affordably." Presented at the NASEO Annual Meeting.
From page 77...
... 2019. "Progress Toward 100% Clean Energy in Cities and States Across the US." University of California, Los Angeles.
From page 78...
... 2019. "Advancing Inclusion Through Clean Energy Jobs." Brookings Institu tion.
From page 79...
... 2014. Unequal access to energy efficiency in US multifamily rental housing: Opportunities to improve.
From page 80...
... 2020. Modelling strategy and net employment effects of renewable energy and energy efficiency: A meta-regression.
From page 81...
... 2019. Power of Place Land Conservation and Clean Energy Pathways for California.
From page 82...
... What residential and small business consumers expect from their utility service is changing as the availability of new consumer-facing technologies and new generation resources increase to meet various decarbonization goals. Many utilities have plans and programs that help residential customers take advantage of clean energy offerings through varying rate structures, energy efficiency incentives, and other incentives to adopt on-site generation.
From page 83...
... Large Electricity Users Large factories, corporate office buildings and campuses, universities, and others use significant amounts of power around the clock. By virtue of their large electricity demand, it is not uncommon for such big users of electricity to have a strong voice in influencing electricity policy, whether in terms of being offered special economic development rates, pushing for greater choice of power supply, advocating for the ability to install on-site power systems, or by demanding particular levels of power quality.
From page 84...
... Bird and T Clevenger, 2019, "2019 Was a Watershed Year for Clean Energy Commitments from US States and Utilities," World Resources Institute, https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/12/2019-was-watershed-year-clean-energy-commitments-us-states-and-utilities.
From page 85...
... TABLE 2.A.1  Examples of Policy, Technology, Environmental, and Other Changes That, if They Were to Occur, Might Shape the Future of Bulk Power Generation in the United States over the Next Several Decades Fossil Generation • There is a dramatic drop in public acceptance of electricity from fossil fuels, because of ° Concerns about climate change ° Concerns about local air pollution ° Concerns about other environmental impacts of production of natural gas ° Market-driven cost competitiveness • Adoption of carbon capture and sequestration is harder than expected, for example because ° Learning curves are flatter than expected ° Geological sequestration capacity is limited by geophysical issues such as induced seismicity ° Lack of development of monitoring infrastructure ° Treating large volumes of extracted water from pore space is a bigger problem than expected ° Public acceptance concerns • Extreme weather events and/or other climate impacts limit the output of existing fossil plants, e.g., owing to ° Flooding, drought, and forest fires ° High temperatures in waterways used for cooling thermal plants continued
From page 86...
... that support H2-CH4 mixes, grows rapidly ° There is a dramatic drop in public acceptance of electricity from fossil fuel or of use of natural gas for heating and other end uses ° The use of H2 in transportation and/or energy storage grows rapidly Nuclear • Some or all of the existing fleet retires more rapidly than expected because of, for example, ° Economics and lack of policy/regulatory support rendering many existing reactors to be uneconomic ° A major common-mode problem in aging reactors is found and affects much of the fleet ° NRC does not approve as many license extensions as is now anticipated for existing nuclear units ° A serious nuclear accident occurs in the United States (or elsewhere) , prompting a dramatic rise in public pressure to close plants • Regulators end up denying renewals of operating licenses of existing reactions beyond a total of 60 years • Uncertainties persist about nuclear unit retirements, which seriously complicates planning for and investment in other technologies • The adoption of a state-specific or federal policy to value the zero-carbon electricity supply from existing or new nuclear reactors • The prospects for building new nuclear change, for example because ° Small modular reactors prove to be more cost-effective, reliable, and safe than expected and regulatory changes reduce obstacles to adoption ° Progress is made on waste disposal ° A serious nuclear accident occurs in the United States, and the resulting public pressure makes siting any type of nuclear plant impossible Renewables and Storage • The growth of renewables slows, for example because ° There is public backlash against growing problems with volatility in electric energy markets and/or with system reliability ° Anticipated rapid decreases in the cost of storage fail to materialize ° Major failures/fires/explosions associated with bulk storage result in public backlash ° End-of-life disposal issues • The growth of renewables accelerates, for example because ° Either national or sub-national renewable portfolio standards and/or low-carbon standards become stricter or more widespread ° There is rapid progress on cost-effective deep-water offshore wind ° There is high growth in flexible demand to support integration of a deeper penetration of renewables ° Synthetic inertia becomes cost-effective ° Rapid improvements are made in bulk storage with a storage time of more than a day or two ° Economic, legal, and regulatory changes make microgrids and other local (quasi)
From page 87...
... , which results in high demand for new transmission delivery capacity ° Expansion of remotely located wind and utility-scale solar capacity, which results in high demand for new transmission • Changes in the ease or difficulty of siting new transmission, for example because ° Changes in federal/state policy give the federal government greater authority over the siting of interstate transmission lines ° It becomes possible to use water, rail, or communication right of way to locate new transmission lines ° Lack of trust/cooperation between states continues to make siting new lines quite difficult ° One or more widespread outages dramatically changes public perceptions and leads to changes that ease siting restrictions • Changes in the topology, operation, and ownership of the transmission system, for example because of ° Creation of a single synchronous bulk power system across all of North America ° Decisions to break up an interconnect into smaller regions with high-voltage direct current (HVDC) ties as a strategy to increase resilience/reliability ° Decisions that result in much of the grid operating segmented into asynchronous islands, interconnected through power converters ° Cost-effective high-voltage alternating current-to-HVDC conversion increases the amount of power that can be moved through exist ing corridors ° Greater use is made of HVDC with cost-effective "tap-off" at intermediate locations ° Substantially higher voltages are enabled on long-distance transmission ° Financial difficulties of some large investor-owned transmission companies results in them becoming publicly owned and operated • Changes in the availability of heavy electric equipment from suppliers, for example because ° Conditions in global markets make it difficult and expensive to acquire new or replacement equipment ° U.S.
From page 88...
... 88 THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC POWER IN THE UNITED STATES TABLE 2.A.3  Examples of Policy, Technology, Environmental, and Other Changes That, if They Occur, Might Shape the Future of Electric Power Distribution Systems and End Use on Both the Power Company and the Customers' Sides of the Meter • Changes in the amount and nature of demand and need for distribution-system infrastructure, for example because ° Large growth occurs in demand for electric vehicles and electrified transportation systems ° Population redistribution owing to climate change or other factors ° Widespread charging of electric vehicles results in serious stress to existing distribution systems ° Large growth occurs in demand to decarbonize industrial processes ° Large growth occurs in air conditioning loads owing to global warming ° Substantial shifts from building heating and/or cooling systems from fossil fuels to electricity ° Large growth occurs because of wide adoption of direct air or other carbon capture ° Aggressive demand management technologies makes loads "shapeable" and dispatchable ° First-come, first-served practices for interconnecting distributed generation (DG) systems are replaced by centralized process ° Serious security regulations are imposed on DER or IoT technologies at the state and/or federal level ° There is further expansion of federal or state efficiency standards both for buildings and for appliances ° There are increased demands on power quality because of greater reliance on digital devices • Changes in who owns and operates the distribution system, for example because ° States change exclusive service territory or franchise laws to allow private parties to build and operate microgrids ° Big players such as oil or auto companies enter the local supply/distribution business for charging electric vehicles ° Many large commercial and industrial loads, such as data centers, choose to rely on on-site self-generation ° There is wide adoption of solar-plus-storage combinations on customer premises ° There is wide adoption of smarter inverters that allow folks with roof-top solar to maintain power during blackouts ° Distribution operators have the ability to operate feeders as microgrids with DG during outages ° Distribution operators provide some form of dispatch for distributed resources ° Community-based energy systems aggregate individual consumers in community energy groups or energy cooperatives ° Significant numbers of investor owned distribution systems are replaced by municipal or coop systems ° Role of third-party aggregators increases ° Role of buildings as storage or other services bidding into markets • Changes in how the system is operated and financed, for example ° There is wide adoption of some form of real time and/or time-of-use pricing ° There is wide adoption of an energy-as-a-service subscription model as an offering to consumers ° Independent distribution system operators operate the distribution system without owning the hardware ° There is wide adoption of some retail-market transactive energy strategy ° Electricity prices and/or bills increase for basic-service customers, and become more of a burden for low-income customers ° Issues of equity become much more politically salient with the development of advanced distribution capabilities and rates ° There is wide adoption of fixed charges to cover customer-related and capacity-related costs with access to the grid ° Distributed systems of all kinds come to rely on sophisticated algorithms, which are prone to manipulation or error or cyberattacks ° Actions by some utilities or state public utility commissions undermine confidence in the regulatory compact • Changes in customer attitudes and desires ° Many more customers want to be "self-sufficient" (raising issues such as who pays for the wires for basic-service customers)


This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More information on Chapter Skim is available.