Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidebook for State Transportation Agencies (2020) / Chapter Skim
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45 Cost Forecasting Tool Kit 5.1 Introduction The Cost Forecasting Tool Kit consists of three spreadsheet-based tools designed to facilitate the implementation of both traditional and advanced cost forecasting methodologies: • Tool 1 is intended for state transportation agencies (STAs) that prefer to use standard inflation rates.
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46 Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidebook for State Transportation Agencies to better meet their needs and preferences. Each of the three tools included in the tool kit is presented in its own worksheet.
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Cost Forecasting Tool Kit 47 likely value, and (3) maximum possible value.
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48 Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidebook for State Transportation Agencies Figure 5-2. Tool 1: Forecast with inflation rate -- three-point estimate input.
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Input Description 1. Inflation rate Desired simple or compound inflation rate provided by the user.
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50 Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidebook for State Transportation Agencies Figure 5-4. Tool 2: Index-based forecast with MFE -- three-point estimate input.
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Cost Forecasting Tool Kit 51 Figure 5-5. Tool 3: Index-based forecast with regression analysis -- single-value input.
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52 Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidebook for State Transportation Agencies Figure 5-6. Tool 3: Index-based forecast with regression analysis -- three-point estimate input.
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Cost Forecasting Tool Kit 53 Input Description 1. Lookback period Number of years of index values to be considered for the intended cost forecasting process.
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