Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidebook for State Transportation Agencies (2020) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
Pages 8-14
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 8... ...
8 Framework for Selecting a Cost Forecasting Approach 2.1 Introduction The framework for selecting a cost forecasting approach presented in this chapter is intended to serve as a map to guide planners and estimators through different sets of guidelines and tools according to the unique set of requirements, preferences, and constraints of each state transportation agency (STA) in terms of data quality and availability, information technology (IT)
|
From page 9... ...
Framework for Selecting a Cost Forecasting Approach 9 their associated forecasting error ranges. Module 2 is intended for agencies that decide not to calculate applicable inflation rates from the internal assessment of a cost index but rely instead on other STAs' experiences.
|
From page 10... ...
M ai nt en an ce De ve lo pm en t Data Requirements & Considerations High In-House Multilevel Construction Cost Index (MCCI) In-House Construction Cost Index (Traditional CCI)
|
From page 11... ...
Framework for Selecting a Cost Forecasting Approach 11 2.4 Modules 3 to 5: Midterm, Intermediate-Range, and Long-Range Forecasting Method Selection If the agency decides to use an index-based inflation rate, the next step in the framework would be the definition of the intended forecasting time horizon -- midterm (3 to 5 years) , intermediate-range (up to 15 years)
|
From page 12... ...
12 Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidebook for State Transportation Agencies intermediate-range forecasts, and between 15 and 20 years (20 years ideally) of historical bid data for long-range forecasting procedures.
|
From page 13... ...
Framework for Selecting a Cost Forecasting Approach 13 forecasting uncertainty if an MCCI is used instead of a traditional CCI. Likewise, a comparison between MCCI forecasting error ranges in Tables 2-4 to 2-6 and those in Table 2-3 shows the considerable reduction in cost forecasting uncertainty that an STA could achieve by implementing the proposed MCCI and MFE methodologies.
|
From page 14... ...
14 Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidebook for State Transportation Agencies The main difference between the proposed MFE method and regression analysis techniques lies in their assumptions of risk. The MFE can be classified as a more conservative, or riskaverse, approach, since it produces a cost forecasting output that combines results from several forecasting scenarios created within the available data.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.