The National Academies Press

Currently Skimming:

Pages 4-10

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.

From page 4... ... v Contents Summary 1 1 Introduction and Background 4 1.1 Introduction 4 1.2 Transportation Planning Programs and Cost Forecasting 6 1.3 Current Practice vs. Ideal Practice 10 1.4 Cost Indexes and Inflation Rates 12 1.4.1 Matching and Proportionality Principles 13 1.4.2 Types of Inflation Rates 14 1.5 Organization of the Report 15 2 State-of-the-Practice of Cost Forecasting 17 2.1 Introduction 17 2.2 Transportation Planning Programs and Cost Forecasting Periods 18 2.2.1 Configuration of Program Cost Estimates 19 2.3 Forecasting Tools and Methods 20 2.4 Current Use of Construction Cost Indexes and Inflation Rates 22 2.5 Risk Analysis Practices in Cost Forecasting 24 3 Case Study Methodology 26 3.1 Introduction 26 3.2 Case Study Objective 26 3.3 Case Study Methodology 26 3.4 Historical Bid Data Collection and Cleaning 27 3.4.1 Outlier Detection and Removal 28 3.5 Existing Cost Indexing Alternatives 29 3.6 Multilevel Construction Cost Index 30 3.6.1 Defining Basket of Pay Items for MCCI 31 3.6.2 MCCI Configuration and Calculation 31 3.6.3 Development of Scope-Based CCIs 36 3.6.4 MCCI Versions Under Consideration 40 3.6.5 Regional Levels of Competition in MCCIs 44 Read the entire page →
From page 5... ... vi 4.1 Introduction 46 4.2 Purpose of Chapter 46 4.3 Overview of Comparative Suitability Analysis Protocol for Cost Indexes 47 4.3.1 Representative Pay Items and Analysis Period 47 4.3.2 Bid Data Point Clouds 48 4.3.3 Base Power Regression Curves and Base Unit Price Estimates 49 4.3.4 Index-Based Data Point Clouds 49 4.3.5 Average Distance Between Bid Data and Index-Based Data Point Clouds and Identification of the Most Suitable Cost Indexing Alternative 49 4.4 Chapter Findings 50 5. Cost Forecasting Approaches 52 5.1 Introduction 52 5.2 Standard Annual Inflation Rates 52 5.3 Risk-Based Forecasting Timelines from MFE Results 56 5.4 Linear and Exponential Regression Analysis 59 5.5 Chapter Findings 61 6. Read the entire page →
From page 6... ... vii List of Figures Figure 1.1 Cost Forecasting Uncertainty over Time. 9 Figure 1.2 Current Typical Cost Forecasting Process. Read the entire page →
From page 7... ... viii List of Tables Table 3.1 Summary of Collected Historical Bid Data per Agency 27 Table 3.2 Existing Construction Cost Indexes 30 Table 3.3 CDOT's MCCI Levels and Configuration 35 Table 3.4 Number of Cost Indexes per Level per Case Study Agency 36 Table 3.5 Asphalt Paving Project – MnDOT Sample Project 37 Table 3.6 Example of Project-Specific CCI – MnDOT's Sample Asphalt Paving Project 38 Table 3.7 MnDOT - Multilevel Construction Cost Index Classification 40 Table 3.8 CDOT - Multilevel Construction Cost Index Classification 41 Table 3.9 DelDOT - Multilevel Construction Cost Index Classification 41 Table 4.1 Selected Relevant Items for Comparison Analysis 48 Table 4.2 Case Study Results - Top Three Cost Indexing Alternatives per Region 50 Table 5.1 Consolidation of Standard Inflation Rates from Case Studies 55 Table 5.2 Consolidated Forecasting Error Ranges from the Application of the MFE Method 59 Table 6.1 Description of the Cost Forecasting Approach Selection Framework Modules 65 This document is the Final Report for NCHRP Project 10-101 and supplements NCHRP Research Report 953: Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidance for State Transportation Agencies. Readers can read or purchase NCHRP Research Report 953 at www.TRB.org. Read the entire page →
From page 8... ... 1 Summary In a transportation planning context, cost estimating is an iterative process intended to predict the amount of monetary resources that will be required to undertake anticipated infrastructure investments. The iterative part of this process refers to the fact that those estimates are subjected to multiple revisions as they move across a series of planning phases. Read the entire page →
From page 9... ... 2 The study found two essential elements involved in the cost forecasting process: construction cost indexes (CCIs) and annual inflation rates. Read the entire page →
From page 10... ... 3  Module 4. Intermediate-Range Forecasting Method Selection: This model assists with the selection of cost forecasting approaches for intermediate-range forecasts (up to 15 years) Read the entire page →

From page 4...

... v Contents Summary 1 1 Introduction and Background 4 1.1 Introduction 4 1.2 Transportation Planning Programs and Cost Forecasting 6 1.3 Current Practice vs. Ideal Practice 10 1.4 Cost Indexes and Inflation Rates 12 1.4.1 Matching and Proportionality Principles 13 1.4.2 Types of Inflation Rates 14 1.5 Organization of the Report 15 2 State-of-the-Practice of Cost Forecasting 17 2.1 Introduction 17 2.2 Transportation Planning Programs and Cost Forecasting Periods 18 2.2.1 Configuration of Program Cost Estimates 19 2.3 Forecasting Tools and Methods 20 2.4 Current Use of Construction Cost Indexes and Inflation Rates 22 2.5 Risk Analysis Practices in Cost Forecasting 24 3 Case Study Methodology 26 3.1 Introduction 26 3.2 Case Study Objective 26 3.3 Case Study Methodology 26 3.4 Historical Bid Data Collection and Cleaning 27 3.4.1 Outlier Detection and Removal 28 3.5 Existing Cost Indexing Alternatives 29 3.6 Multilevel Construction Cost Index 30 3.6.1 Defining Basket of Pay Items for MCCI 31 3.6.2 MCCI Configuration and Calculation 31 3.6.3 Development of Scope-Based CCIs 36 3.6.4 MCCI Versions Under Consideration 40 3.6.5 Regional Levels of Competition in MCCIs 44

Read the entire page →

From page 5...

... vi 4.1 Introduction 46 4.2 Purpose of Chapter 46 4.3 Overview of Comparative Suitability Analysis Protocol for Cost Indexes 47 4.3.1 Representative Pay Items and Analysis Period 47 4.3.2 Bid Data Point Clouds 48 4.3.3 Base Power Regression Curves and Base Unit Price Estimates 49 4.3.4 Index-Based Data Point Clouds 49 4.3.5 Average Distance Between Bid Data and Index-Based Data Point Clouds and Identification of the Most Suitable Cost Indexing Alternative 49 4.4 Chapter Findings 50 5. Cost Forecasting Approaches 52 5.1 Introduction 52 5.2 Standard Annual Inflation Rates 52 5.3 Risk-Based Forecasting Timelines from MFE Results 56 5.4 Linear and Exponential Regression Analysis 59 5.5 Chapter Findings 61 6.

Read the entire page →

From page 6...

... vii List of Figures Figure 1.1 Cost Forecasting Uncertainty over Time. 9 Figure 1.2 Current Typical Cost Forecasting Process.

Read the entire page →

From page 7...

... viii List of Tables Table 3.1 Summary of Collected Historical Bid Data per Agency 27 Table 3.2 Existing Construction Cost Indexes 30 Table 3.3 CDOT's MCCI Levels and Configuration 35 Table 3.4 Number of Cost Indexes per Level per Case Study Agency 36 Table 3.5 Asphalt Paving Project – MnDOT Sample Project 37 Table 3.6 Example of Project-Specific CCI – MnDOT's Sample Asphalt Paving Project 38 Table 3.7 MnDOT - Multilevel Construction Cost Index Classification 40 Table 3.8 CDOT - Multilevel Construction Cost Index Classification 41 Table 3.9 DelDOT - Multilevel Construction Cost Index Classification 41 Table 4.1 Selected Relevant Items for Comparison Analysis 48 Table 4.2 Case Study Results - Top Three Cost Indexing Alternatives per Region 50 Table 5.1 Consolidation of Standard Inflation Rates from Case Studies 55 Table 5.2 Consolidated Forecasting Error Ranges from the Application of the MFE Method 59 Table 6.1 Description of the Cost Forecasting Approach Selection Framework Modules 65 This document is the Final Report for NCHRP Project 10-101 and supplements NCHRP Research Report 953: Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidance for State Transportation Agencies. Readers can read or purchase NCHRP Research Report 953 at www.TRB.org.

Read the entire page →

From page 8...

... 1 Summary In a transportation planning context, cost estimating is an iterative process intended to predict the amount of monetary resources that will be required to undertake anticipated infrastructure investments. The iterative part of this process refers to the fact that those estimates are subjected to multiple revisions as they move across a series of planning phases.

Read the entire page →

From page 9...

... 2 The study found two essential elements involved in the cost forecasting process: construction cost indexes (CCIs) and annual inflation rates.

Read the entire page →

From page 10...

... 3  Module 4. Intermediate-Range Forecasting Method Selection: This model assists with the selection of cost forecasting approaches for intermediate-range forecasts (up to 15 years)

Read the entire page →

Key Terms

← Previous Chapter Skim

Next Chapter Skim →

This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More information on Chapter Skim is available.