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Pages 1-14

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From page 1...
... These and other climate changes are posing risks to society -- to people, their property, and their way of life -- and to ecosystems, from croplands to national parks. In response to observed impacts and greater understanding of projected future challenges and opportunities, decision makers at local to national scales are considering how to reduce and manage societal risks associated with climate and other global changes in the coming decades by implementing a combination of mitigation and adaptation actions.
From page 2...
... Specifically, in preparing this report, the committee was tasked to consider how USGCRP can best meet the mandate2 of the GCRA for the coming decade, in light of the significant climate change impacts happening today and the increases in their magnitudes and changes in their patterns that are projected over this time period, within the context of the longer-term changes projected in our climate and environment. This report identifies critical climate change risks, research needed to support decision making relevant to these risks, and opportunities for USGCRP's participating agencies and other partners to advance these research priorities (see Appendix A for the full Statement of Task)
From page 3...
... Indeed, the Program has already taken steps in this direction, including past efforts to frame sections within the National Climate Assessments in terms of risk. That said, the committee believes that USGCRP and its participating agencies should make a significant pivot and center their next decadal plan, and the resulting priorities and activities, using an integrated risk-framing approach -- that is, one that considers the risks to human and natural systems posed by climate change, and when appropriate, climate change together with other global changes.
From page 4...
... RECOMMENDATION: The committee recommends that USGCRP apply an integrated risk-framing approach to identify research priorities for the next 10 years that provide insights to avoid the worst potential consequences of urgent risks to human and natural systems from current and future climate change. INTEGRATED SYSTEMS-BASED RESEARCH IS CRITICAL FOR MANAGEMENT OF CLIMATE RISKS Decision makers in many levels of government, in private sector firms, and in society are increasingly requesting information on risks and responses to help them design and implement risk-reduction strategies.
From page 5...
... Figure S.2 describes key terms used throughout the report. Given its mandate to coordinate research across multiple agencies and the multiple dimensions of global change, USGCRP should play an important role in accelerating integrated, systems-based research.
From page 6...
... This approach is the logical extension of the research priorities described in the Act and reflects the progression of knowledge and the advancement of data and research tools. Advances in fundamental and applied Earth system science over the next decade will be significantly more useful and usable by increased integration of natural and social sciences, improving the balance among physical climate research, ecosystems research, and human systems research.
From page 7...
... Reducing Risks by Reductions in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Lowering Their Atmospheric Concentration. Achieving net-zero emissions4 of carbon dioxide from human activities is critical to managing climate change risks because this approach will inherently lower all future risks through avoided or captured emissions.
From page 8...
... RECOMMENDATION: The committee recommends that USGCRP prioritize research related to managing climate risks, including (1) reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and lowering their atmospheric concentrations; (2)
From page 9...
... Research needs remain in projecting the frequency and severity of these events and improving attribution that links extreme events to natural and humancaused climate change. Of relevance to this research are the impacts of extreme events and tipping points on current and projected implications for a range of issues including asset values, human migration, conflict, and political instability.
From page 10...
... Augmenting Existing Analysis Frameworks and Supporting Data. Progress in research on global change risks, as well as the crosscutting topics, requires implementation of augmented analysis frameworks that can more adequately represent interactions among the physical climate system, ecosystems, and human systems.
From page 11...
... In addition, it is critical that the next strategic plan outline the process through which participating agencies coordinate and adjust their individual program plans to avoid duplication and fill gaps critical to meeting overall program objectives. The committee recommends that the strategic plan should make clear the management structure and program criteria for setting priorities, sequencing investments, and guiding development of an integrated program across the individual agencies.
From page 12...
... Approaches to be explored in this analysis include: the reallocation of existing resources within the federal agencies and departments that make up USGCRP today; the inclusion of relevant federal agencies and departments not formally engaged with USGCRP; when warranted and possible, the acquisition of additional federal funds to support new research initiatives; and the fostering of public-private partnerships to expand the intellectual and financial resources supporting critical global change research.
From page 13...
... Increase the usability and relevance of research by adopting a coproduction approach to research, recommitting to the sus tained assessment process, and establishing a standing user working group or advisory mechanism as a forum for input on user needs; 3. Advance program integration and accountability by increas ing transparency of the management structure and criteria for setting priorities, sequencing investments, and guiding develop ment of an integrated program across the individual agencies; and 4.


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