Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031 (2021) / Chapter Skim
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2 Global Change Risks to Human Systems
2 Global Change Risks to Human Systems
Pages 23-40
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From page 23... ...
This report focuses on a set of human systems that evolved to meet specific societal needs, including health, food, water, energy, transportation and infrastructure, the economy, and national security. These human systems interact with each other and with the physical climate system and ecosystems in complex ways through a series of drivers and feedback loops (see Figure 2.1)
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This chapter explores human security challenges through examples of global change societal risks to several human systems that will be important for the United States over the next decades. Throughout, the interdependence and interconnection of these risks, including through supply chains (across sectors)
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These efforts provide a foundation for the sort of integration that will be essential to addressing security risks and should be augmented with efforts to consider risks that cut across these focal areas, as well as the other risks identified here. Throughout this chapter, the example of coastal communities is used to illustrate the ways in which the needs to understand risks are integrated across these human-natural systems (see Box 2.1 and other blue boxes throughout chapter)
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Many research actions to assess risks from global change to the security of coastal communi ties are cross-sectoral and could be applied in various iterations to other communities. Examples of these needs are provided throughout this chapter in blue boxes.
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POPULATION HEALTH AND HEALTH SYSTEMS Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, sea level rise, and other global environmental changes are associated with increases in the numbers of cases of climate-sensitive injuries, diseases, and death. The Fourth National Climate Assessment concluded that the health and well-being of Americans are already affected by climate change.
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that are vulnerable to disruption from flooding, storm surge, sea level rise, or electrical grid outages, and identify options to increase their resilience. • Develop approaches to study how information about observed impacts of extreme events and disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic, can be used to improve locally applicable models and risk assessments for coastal communities.
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• Determine the extent to which CO2, climate change,and other global environmental changes could alter food security (not just crop yields) in the United States, in the context of potential changes in the global food system and possible domestic development choices. Coastal communities need estimates of the extent to which higher ocean temperatures and ocean acidification could affect fishing stock and seafood.
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. Recent climate change has affected people's ability to sustainably access acceptable quality water during shortened or intensified rain seasons and their ability to protect themselves from water-related infectious diseases (Bakker, 2012; Thomas et al., 2013)
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• Refine models to project how extreme precipitation events and hot weather will contribute to overwhelming sanitary sewers, toxic algal blooms, inundation, and challenges to water safety and security for coastal communities. ENERGY The energy sector is undergoing rapid change including fuel switching from coal to natural gas, electrification of the vehicle sector, increased deployment of renewable energy, increased energy efficiency in most sectors, changes to the electric grid, and changes in response to the dynamics of international energy markets (NASEM, 2021a)
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. In addition, extreme events interact with more chronic pressures such as sea level rise that have the potential to increase the risk of temporary or permanent inundation of coastal energy infrastructure (DOE, 2014; Government Accountability Office, 2014; Maloney and Preston, 2014)
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Disruption of the transportation system, or parts thereof, can affect virtually all aspects of peoples' lives -- from access to and utilization of health care, to food and medicine distribution, to industrial supply chains, to emergency evacuation. Sea level rise places coastal transportation systems, as well as communities and businesses, at increased risk, while extreme events, such as floods and fires, can shut down the transportation systems in most areas of the country, sometimes for weeks or months.
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Climate change and associated extreme events can contribute to economic insecurity through supply disruptions at the production, distribution, or consumer levels. For example, increased frequency and severity of droughts and flooding create greater risk of crop losses, which threaten not only food availability but also the livelihoods of agricultural producers and workers.
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. The intensification of water scarcity, temperature rise, precipitation inundation, wildfires, and other climate-related events can further aggravate emerging state instability and failure, interstate tension, conflict, military intervention, and other high-order security risks if not addressed (Guy et al., 2020)
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Example Research Needs to Assess National and International Security for Coastal Communities: • Understand the robustness of local security institutions and infrastructure to further stresses in order to identify when tipping points could be crossed and their possible consequences as the numbers of conflicts and crises requiring response multiply. • Identify which nations are likely most susceptible to climate changes, including sea level rise, considering the intersection of climate change, policy responses of other nations, nuclear pro liferation, potential adaptation, and others.
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rate of locally apparent sea level rise; (3) history of and likely future exposure to extreme weather events, saltwater intrusion, harmful algal blooms, infectious disease organisms, oil spills, chemical contamination, and ocean acidification; (4)
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Examples of Integrating Needs to Assess Global Change Risks to Coastal Communities: • Understand how risks propagate across human and natural systems, and the levels of detail, complexity, and spatiotemporal resolution needed to model and manage risks. • Develop approaches to study how information about observed impacts of extreme events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, can be used to improve locally applicable models and risk assessments for coastal communities.
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From page 39... ...
, and develops a specific climate change risk-reduction framework.5 These efforts will be key to ensuring that decision makers have the information they need to manage global change risks in an integrated fashion across time scales, taking into account the synergies and trade-offs among the challenges to systems. 5 The United Nations' Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR, 2021)
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