Nuclear Proliferation and Arms Control Monitoring, Detection, and Verification A National Security Priority: Interim Report (2021) / Chapter Skim
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2 Governance of the MDV Enterprise
2 Governance of the MDV Enterprise
Pages 35-70
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From page 35... ...
It is therefore vital that technology providers and policy makers work together to prioritize and anticipate future agreements and future technologies with sustained commitment. 2.1.1 Need for a Formal Interagency Planning Process As outlined in Section 1.5, the MDV enterprise is composed of a diverse set of federal departments and agencies with RDT&E, operational, and/or policy 35
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From page 36... ...
, Detection and Early Warning of Nuclear Proliferation (August 2015) , established interagency integration measures, but the committee was unable to assess these measures for this report.
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From page 37... ...
Based on data gathering in this phase of the study, the committee concluded that current coordination across the MDV enterprise is somewhat effective at the strategic and tactical levels, but that coordination is heavily reliant upon informal interactions and dependent on personal relationships, making it fragile and transient. The MDV enterprise needs a formal, recurring process to anticipate, identify, discuss, prioritize, and communicate MDV needs for nonproliferation and arms control.
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From page 38... ...
An external MDV advisory board could help increase focus on this longer timeline and bring new ideas to the MDV enterprise.5 Such an advisory board, broadly composed of experienced individuals outside the government with diverse talents 3 The committee will further assess the role of NCPC in the final report. 4 One DNN R&D official noted that NNSA's interagency partners are operationally focused, which makes it challenging to look 10+ years into the future as an interagency (DNN R&D, briefing to committee, September 21, 2020)
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The committee learned of two mechanisms that exist for interagency R&D planning and coordination: procedures established by PPD-33 and the Nuclear Defense Research & Development Subcommittee (NDRD)
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,8 occasionally develops a strategic roadmap or plan9 with input from the relevant agencies involved in nuclear defense R&D.10 The most recent strategic plan was released in December 2019 and examines the FY2020–2024 timeframe (NSTC, 2019)
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. In addition to these meetings, DNN R&D also stressed that the national test beds (see Section 2.2.2)
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From page 42... ...
A possible draft charter is provided in Appendix I.17 16 The 2014 DSB study called for a national MDV testing capability that could act as a "focal point for planning, iterating/adapting, and operating" a comprehensive monitoring regime that is too complicated to plan or assess on paper. The test beds would connect developers and users and help integrate the various activities in the MDV mission space (DSB, 2014, p.
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From page 43... ...
an expert workforce. There is a particular emphasis on the test beds and other infrastructure that can be used to both further R&D and provide hands-on experience to build workforce expertise.
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From page 44... ...
The test beds are an innovative use of the DOE/NNSA nuclear weapons complex to provide facilities to the proliferation research community writ large. The development of universally accessible test-beds provides needed, cost-effective, domain-relevant venues for researchers to use in their nuclear proliferation RDT&E programs.
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From page 45... ...
DHS has also developed test beds that could be used to support the MDV mission; the committee did not conduct data gathering on these test beds for this interim report. b The first Moran campaign was in 2017 (DNN R&D, communication to committee, November 3, 2020)
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From page 46... ...
23 Specific facilities are also needed for the education and training of future scientists in MDV; for example, university research reactors are important for training in nuclear engineering, radiochemistry, and related fields. In an environment of ever-increasing amounts of data, it is also becoming apparent that the MDV enterprise needs to hire more computer and data scientists, including cybersecurity and data authentication experts.
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From page 47... ...
The IUP was renewed as the University Nuclear Leadership Program in the 2021 Consolidated Appropriations Act, maintaining the same funding to DOE, NNSA, and the NRC.27 NNSA's contribution to the IUP is managed out of DNN R&D, which currently funds three concurrent university consortia that support the MDV mission.28 The committee focused on the DNN R&D university consortia in this interim report due to their direct relevance to the MDV mission, but note that 24 DNN R&D's Venture model, established in 2015–2016, focuses significant resources toward a small number of large-scale multi-laboratory projects, "Ventures," many of which are associated with test beds. The Venture model promotes innovation by bringing together a diverse group of researchers across the laboratory complex to focus on long-term R&D challenges.
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From page 48... ...
This consortium was renewed for an additional five years in 2016 and will end in 2021 (NSSC II) .32 The NSSC's primary objective is to recruit and train top students in relevant nuclear disciplines to support 29 NNSA has several other workforce development efforts beyond the DNN R&D consortia, including the stockpile stewardship university consortia and the NNSA Graduate Fellowship Program that the committee did not focus on in this report.
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From page 49... ...
Focus areas of these new consortia include proliferation signatures, nuclear explosion monitoring, advanced manufacturing, data science, novel sensors, and robotics. A more detailed summary of the three currently funded consortia (NSSC II, MTV, and ETI)
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From page 50... ...
The consortia seem to largely be addressing MDV workforce development needs in relevant fields. Of particular note, DNN R&D has recognized the growing importance of data science and advanced manufacturing expertise to the MDV mission with the establishment of two consortia, CNEC (2014–2020)
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From page 51... ...
NNSA has taken significant steps since the release of the 2014 DSB report to ensure that key MDV capabilities are sustained, especially within the DOE complex, with the development of a new Nonproliferation Stewardship Program (NSP) and the establishment of test beds.
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(a) The consortia are increasingly engaging forward-looking disciplinary needs of the MDV enterprise beyond nuclear engineering, such as data sciences.
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From page 53... ...
to identify design and/or implementation flaws. As the system design and implementation matures, it proceeds to operational test and evaluation in realistic environments and eventually to operational capability.37 Any gaps in this pipeline could prevent needed new capabilities from reaching operators and hinder execution of the MDV mission.
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The creation of MDV technology development test beds (see Section 2.2.2) is a significant, positive contribution to technology transition as they provide access to needed facilities and materials at no or reasonable cost to the technology developers.
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technology champion fills the void between early TRL R&D and operational capability. A similar organization to fill the mid-TRL transition for national nuclear test explosion or arms control MDV systems is not apparent, with the exception of space-based nuclear explosion detection sensors that are developed and matured by DNN R&D.
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illustrates the relationship of DNN R&D, NPAC, the USSP International Safeguards Project Office (ISPO)
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It is especially important that NPAC/OINS and DNN R&D/PD communicate closely so that NPAC/OINS can represent DNN R&D/PD efforts to the IAEA. Development of Arms Control MDV Capabilities Another example of needed coordination between those developing and using technologies is the development of new arms control MDV technologies, where DoS/AVC (policy negotiation lead)
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As the United States looks ahead to future arms control treaties that may limit all nuclear weapons rather than just deployed strategic nuclear delivery vehicles and associated weapons, the need to monitor nuclear warheads through
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The majority of this R&D is currently being undertaken by NPAC/ ONV through its Warhead Verification Program (WVP) , which recently released a Warhead Verification Capability Development Plan (NPAC, 2020)
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The national laboratories also fund some innovative MDV R&D with internal Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) funds.45 Since these funds are not directed by DNN R&D and are not limited to MDV-relevant projects, the MDV enterprise should not be reliant on them.
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From page 61... ...
2.3.3 Leveraging Academia DNN R&D primarily leverages academia through their university consortia, which, in addition to their purpose described in Section 2.2.3 as a workforce pipeline, play a significant role in basic R&D. The DNN R&D consortia perform research in a number of innovative research areas, for example, in-situ biota sensors, antineutrino-based detection methods, advanced manufacturing for nonproliferation, and data fusion and other advanced analytic techniques.
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From page 62... ...
With the vast amount of resources being put into RDT&E by the commercial sector, the MDV RDT&E enterprise should examine whether some of this investment could be leveraged for furthering the MDV mission. 48 The currently funded mission-focused consortia are MTV and ETI.
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From page 63... ...
Furthermore, working with sparse data, a challenge faced by the MDV mission, 50 Other organizations in the MDV enterprise have higher reliance on the commercial sector, particularly those that conduct higher TRL RDT&E. For example, 30 to 35 percent of DTRA's R&D funds are sent to industry partners (DTRA/RD, briefing to committee, September 21, 2020)
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. Box 2‑4 gives an example of commercial technology development in data science areas that the MDV enterprise could leverage.
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. DIU has offices in three major commercial technology hubs -- Silicon Valley, Austin, and Boston -- that allow DIU personnel to more easily interface with industry contacts and stay aware of recent advances in the commercial sector.
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Unlike for international safeguards and arms control MDV, an organization with the mandate, funding, and knowl edge to mature MDV technologies for implementation by AFTAC is not evident. Recommendation 4.
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From page 67... ...
(c) DNN R&D and other parts of the MDV R&D enterprise should use the best practices of other government agencies to optimize the use of prize challenges and solicit innovative ideas from researchers outside the traditional MDV mission space, including the use of surrogate datasets.
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From page 68... ...
Washington, DC: National Nuclear Security Administration. DNN R&D (Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development)
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From page 69... ...
2017. Nuclear nonproliferation: Better information needed on results of national nuclear security administration's research and technology development projects.
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2018. "University students flock to data science as interest and demand surge." Center for Digital Education, October 19.
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