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9 Autonomous Vehicles
Pages 269-282

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From page 269...
... It is concerned with the energy implications not only of the properties of the vehicles themselves but also of changes in vehicle ownership, travel choices, and driving modes that would result from the use of vehicles that drive themselves. Fully autonomous vehicles would introduce qualitative changes in vehicle use and could allow wholesale transformation of the transportation system and travel behavior.
From page 270...
... Autonomous vehicles' impacts on transportation systems and the corresponding energy use and carbon emissions implications are far less certain and potentially much larger than vehicle-level fuel efficiency impacts of automation and connectivity technologies. 9.2 VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED The availability of personal autonomous vehicles could result in increased vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
From page 271...
... find that in an alternative scenario of 50% pooled rides and electric ride hailing vehicles, ride hailing trips would reduce carbon emissions of the trips they replace by more than 50%. 9.3 VEHICLE OWNERSHIP MODELS In ride hailing, delivery, and transit fleets, autonomous vehicles' ability to operate without a driver could substantially reduce the cost of the transportation services they provide.
From page 272...
... Ride hailing fleets will also have an incentive to use vehicles with size and performance characteristics matching demand. An analysis of the fuel economy implications of this "rightsizing" effect found that these fleet vehicles would be smaller on average than today's vehicles and, if compliant with the current size-based fuel economy standards, would have 20% higher average fuel economy as a result (Barber et al., 2019)
From page 273...
... A recent analysis by Argonne National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and National Renewable Energy Laboratory synthesized that literature to identify a range of plausible energy impacts of autonomous vehicles owing to an array of factors (DOE, 2020)
From page 274...
... The national laboratory study also explored the sensitivity of the results with respect to assumptions about autonomous vehicles' properties and/or travel behaviors, including the following: whether autonomous vehicles are battery electric vehicles, whether vehicles continue to be privately owned or are replaced by fleet vehicles, and whether rides are shared. Of particular relevance to the discussion in Chapter 8, the authors also investigated the effect of limiting vehicles to Level 2 automation and, separately, the effects of eliminating connectivity.
From page 275...
... Determinants of autonomous vehicles' adoption for personal use, ride hailing service, or transit services include attitudes toward the environment, collaborative consumption, and car ownership (Acheampong and Cugurullo, 2019)
From page 276...
... Substantial sales are still anticipated over the next decade, however, with fleet sales starting to ramp up by 2025 and personal vehicles following around 2030. Figure 9.3 shows several scenarios of automated vehicle market penetration from McKinsey (Gao et al., 2016)
From page 277...
... 9.7.1.1 Ownership Models As noted above, to the extent that autonomous vehicles contribute to a shift away from personal ownership of vehicles and toward fleet ownership, they could alter the profile of the future fleet, moving it toward smaller, less powerful vehicles on average, with vehicles having special capabilities or high carrying capacity largely dedicated to applications requiring those capabilities. The current structure of fuel economy standards can accommodate shifts in the sales distribution of vehicle classes, in that the standard for each automaker self-adjusts to the size and type of vehicles sold each model year.
From page 278...
... In fleet use, autonomous vehicles' effects on VMT are indeterminate, but some have advocated that the high potential for shared rides and or high mileage accumulation in ride hailing fleets should be rewarded in fuel efficiency standards. In the Safer Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE)
From page 279...
... . Other strategies to ensure that autonomous vehicle adoption reduces energy consumption include policies to discourage ownership of autonomous vehicles for personal use; giving priority access to curb space, parking facilities, and designated highway lanes to multiple-occupant vehicles; reducing travelers' reluctance to share rides by providing advanced information about fellow riders and installing personal safety measures; creating integrated systems of "Mobility as a Service" as the local level; maximizing the convenience of travel without personal vehicles; and prioritizing the deployment of autonomous vehicles for transit and micro-transit services (Greenwald and Kornhauser, 2019)
From page 280...
... 2019. "Fleet Right-Sizing: The Corporate Average Fuel Economy Effect of a Transition to a Shared Autonomous Fleet," 98th Annual Transportation Research Board Meeting, paper [extended abstract]
From page 281...
... 2018. "Autonomous Vehicle Sales to Surpass 33 Million Annually in 2040, Enabling New Autonomous Mobil ity in More Than 26 Percent of New Car Sales, IHS Markit Says." IHS Markit.
From page 282...
... 2016. "Estimated Bounds and Important Factors for Fuel Use and Consumer Costs of Connected and Automated Vehicles." National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL/TP-5400-67216.


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