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3 2025 Baseline of Vehicles
Pages 31-43

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From page 31...
... In addition, the chapter provides related global regulatory context for continued automotive industry investments in vehicle efficiency and electric vehicles. 3.2 BASELINE VEHICLE CLASSES The latest complete detailed data set, for which all the critical vehicle attributes (e.g., make, model, engine, transmission, emissions, fuel economy, size, mass, vehicle class, sales, application of efficiency technology)
From page 32...
... . 3.3 FUTURE YEAR CO2 REDUCTION AND INCREASED EFFICIENCY TO 2025 To understand the likely efficiency technology packages of vehicles in the new vehicle fleet around 2025, the committee reviewed the required stringency and projected least-cost paths to reach the original 2021–2025 5% and newly revised 2021–2026 1.5% yearly increases in fuel economy, as assessed by the U.S.
From page 33...
... As a first step, the lowest-CO2 MY 2020 vehicles in two major vehicle classes, midsize cars and crossover light trucks, were identified as compared to the footprint-indexed CO2 standards. Figure 3.3 shows the MY 2012–2021
From page 34...
... The available technology credits include air conditioning credits and off-cycle credits. For historical context, when averaged over all MY 2016 vehicles, passenger cars had 9 grams per mile (g/mi)
From page 35...
... FIGURE 3.3  GHG emission targets versus footprint for MY 2012–2025 for medium cars (left) and crossover light trucks (right)
From page 36...
... 46.1 251.9 175 -- -- -- Variable valve timing, continuously variable transmission 2020 Camry (2.5 L) 48.7 189.7 203 4% –28% 13% Variable valve timing, direct injection, high compression ratio, cooled exhaust gas recirculation, 8-speed, road load reduction Accord (1.5 L)
From page 37...
... 3.6 BENCHMARK FOR MY 2025 Benchmark vehicle emission levels for 2025 are defined here by the committee to provide an approximation for technology packages that are likely to be commonplace around 2025, the first year of this committee's analysis. Benchmark efficiency and emission levels are approximated based on the terms of the July 2019 deal between California and four automakers, including incorporation of existing trends for the usage of technology credits.
From page 38...
... would come from test-cycle vehicle efficiency improvements. Table 3.4 summarizes the test-cycle CO2 emission levels, test-cycle fuel economy, and consumer label fuel economy levels estimated for MY 2017 and the 2025 benchmark for each of the five vehicle classes.
From page 39...
... TABLE 3.5  Technology Package CO2-Reduction and Associated Cost for Medium Car Class to Obtain a 17% to 21% Reduction in Test-Cycle Fuel Economy from 2017 to 2025 Test-Cycle CO2 and Fuel Incremental Cost per Technology Package to Meet the Required Improvement in CO2 Analysis Consumption Reduction Vehicle (2018$) Emissions and Fuel Consumption EPA 17.3% $567 Engine friction reduction, low rolling resistance tires 20%, improved accessories 2, aerodynamic 20%, mass reduction 10% NHTSA 19.1% $798 Rolling resistance 20%, 10-speed transmission, aerodynamic 15%, mass reduction 7.5%, variable valve lift NHTSA 20.8% $1,119 Rolling resistance 20%, 10-speed transmission, aerodynamic 15%, mass reduction 7.5%, variable valve lift, direct injection EPA 21.0% $788 Engine friction reduction, low rolling resistance tires 20%, improved accessories 2, aerodynamic 20%, mass reduction 10%, 10-speed transmission SOURCE: NHTSA rulemaking analysis from original and amended standards (NHTSA/EPA, 2020)
From page 40...
... EPA 22.5% $1,143 Engine friction reduction, low rolling resistance tires 20%, improved accessories 2, aerodynamic 20%, mass reduction 10%, 10-speed transmission, direct injection, turbocharger (18 bar) , variable valve lift NHTSA 22.9% $1,308 Rolling resistance 20%, 8-speed transmission, aerodynamic 15%, mass reduction 5%, variable valve lift, turbocharging (18 bar)
From page 41...
... Area Technology MY 2017 Estimated MY 2025 Engine Variable valve timing 70% 91% - 95% Variable valve lift 20% 77% - 85% Gasoline direct injection 29% 64% - 73% Turbocharging 24% 34% - 45% Cylinder deactivation 12% 28% - 38% High compression ratio 2% 19% - 28% Transmission 6-speed or less 52% 3% - 4% 7- or 8-speed 17% 43% - 60% 9- or 10-speed 6% 9% - 18% Continuously variable 21% 21% - 22% Hybrid Start-stop 17% 15% - 17% Mild hybrid 0.01% 0.1% - 4.4% Strong hybrid 2.2% 2.5% - 9.4% Electric Plug-in hybrid electric 0.7% 3.1% - 4.6% Battery electric 0.6% 2.5% - 4.0% Fuel cell electric 0.02% 0.02% Road load Mass reduction (10% or more) 17% 30% - 69% reduction Tire rolling resistance reduction (10% or more)
From page 42...
... In light of broader policy, market, and technology developments, the global automotive industry is supplementing its combustion efficiency investments with major plans for high-volume electric vehicle production. Many manufacturers have announced that they will greatly increase their electric vehicle deployment within the next 5 years in the United States and elsewhere.
From page 43...
... 2020. The 2019 EPA Automotive Trends Report: Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Fuel Economy, and Technology since 1975.


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