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Appendix E: Center for Automotive Research Commissioned Study
Pages 398-442

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From page 398...
... E Center for Automotive Research Commissioned Study 398
From page 399...
... APPENDIX E 399 Vehicle Mass Reduction Roadmap Study 2025-2035 Carla Bailo Shashank Modi Michael Schultz Terni Fiorelli Brett Smith Nicklaus Snell November © CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH | 2018 2020 1
From page 400...
... 16 Material Mass Reduction Percentages used in this Study .......................................................................... 17 Secondary Mass Reduction .........................................................................................................................
From page 401...
... 10 Table 5: Mass Reduction Potential of Materials ......................................................................................... 17 Table 6: Mass Reduction percentages of each material used for this project ...........................................
From page 402...
... Mild Mild Steel Less than 270 IF Intersitial Free 410-420 High Strength Steels (HSS) BH Bake Hardenable 340-400 HSLA High-Strength Low Alloy 450-780 DP Dual Phase 440-1270 Advanced High Strength FB Ferritic-bainitic (SF - stretch flangeable)
From page 403...
... . Vehicle Mass Reduction Roadmap Study 2025-2035.
From page 404...
... with providing estimates of the potential cost, fuel economy improvements, and barriers to deployment of technologies for improving fuel economy in 2025-2035 light-duty vehicles. The National Academies Committee is currently investigating the state of vehicle mass reduction technology readiness and the impact of mass reduction on fuel economy while maintaining vehicle performance and safety requirements.
From page 405...
... Table 1: Vehicles studied for baseline material analysis Small Car Mid-Size Car Small SUV Mid-Size SUV Pickup Honda Civic Ford Fusion Jeep Wrangler Traverse Silverado Honda Accord Tesla Model 3 Chevy Equinox Pacifica Ram Pickup Hyundai Elantra Ford Escape Explorer F Series Nissan Altima Edge Pilot Sierra Nissan Sentra CR-V Grand Cherokee Tacoma Toyota Camry Tucson Highlander Toyota Corolla Cherokee Compass CX-5 Rogue Outback Forester Rav4 1 NHTSA further categorizes vehicles in mass market and performance for each segment.
From page 406...
... B.H. Steel and Aluminum Engine Cradle/Front frame LSS 400-600 HSLA Steering Knuckle HSS 400-500 And Aluminum Aluminum IP Beam HSS And Two Magnesium AHSS Source: CAR Research, Vehicle repair manuals Material analysis suggests that the MY2020 fleet has advanced material technologies that should result in around five percent lighter curb weight than the MY2016 baseline.
From page 407...
... Footprint Increase 2% 6% Source: CAR Research The real-world mass reduction achievements do NOT match the mass reduction potential of the material technologies already implemented in the baseline MY2020 fleet. CAR research found two primary reasons for this discrepancy: Q1.
From page 408...
... Will increases in energy density and battery cost reduction alter the selection criterion for lightweighting of the electric vehicles? Most respondents said that the primary purpose of mass-reduction for fossil fuel vehicles is controlling fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions.
From page 409...
... . Manufacturing costs can be higher than material costs.
From page 410...
... CAR researchers found that closures are the top priority because they are mostly large, flat panels which can be a bolt-on to the body-in-white. The body-in-white (BIW)
From page 411...
... Push for higher lightweighting targets will take few vehicle parts away from steel, but steel will remain a dominant material for BIW at least till 2035 for mass-market vehicles. Current Advantage •Broad UTS range: 200 Mpa to 2000 Mpa in the last 20 years •Low Cost •Reasonable weight savings using UHSS, Gen-3 •Familiarity •Global supply chain Future Opportunities •Steel industry is focusing on improving formability while increasing strength • All steel makers are actively updating infrastructure to lower their carbon footprint.
From page 412...
... Aluminum will increase from the current 10-13 percent to 20-22 percent of the BIW and closures subsystem. Current Advantage •Aluminum provides 35-40% mass reduction over mild steel.
From page 413...
... Future Opportunities •Opportunities in liftgate, door inner, fender, roof panel, front bulkhead, floor reinforcement, A/B pillar reinforcement, truck bed, seats •Expected to be 8-12% of the BIW+Closures Negatives •In terms of $/lbs, polymer composites will remain expensive over metals. •Major barriers •High raw material cost •Different tooling than metals •Paint shop for BIW applications •Joining •Design © CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH | 2020 15
From page 414...
... Current Advantage •Magnesium provides 60-70% mass reduction over mild steel. Future Opportunities •Limited opportunities in vehicle front end components and powertrain castings •Expected to be 3-6% of the BIW+closures Negatives •Use of magnesium remains low (1%)
From page 415...
... Table 5: Mass Reduction Potential of Materials Lightweight Material Mass Reduction Opportunity Magnesium 30-70% Carbon fiber composites 50-70% Aluminum and Al matrix composites 30-60% Titanium 40-55% Glass fiber composites 25-35% Advanced high strength steel 15-25% High strength steel 10-28% Source: U.S. Department of Energy Based on the interviews conducted for this project and the literature survey, the authors decided to use the mass reduction percentages listed in Table 6.
From page 416...
... Creating such a model is out-of-scope of this project. To arrive at a reasonable range of estimates for different levels of mass-reduction, CAR researchers performed an extensive literature survey and interviewed material suppliers to understand the raw material and manufacturing costs.
From page 417...
... To account for uncertainties, we use a range of $0.70-$1.00 per kg for cold-rolled mild steel. Figure 2: Hot-Rolled Steel Price Trend USGS Hot-Rolled SBQ Steel 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 Nominal Price per Metric Ton Real Price per Metric Ton Average 1957-2019 Source: United States Geological Survey © CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH | 2020 19
From page 418...
... Figure 3: Aluminum Price Trend USGS Aluminum Ingot 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 Nominal Price per Metric Ton Real Price per Metric Ton Average 1945-1989 Average 1990-2019 Source: United States Geological Survey © CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH | 2020 20
From page 419...
... The expected combined effect of full-scale production wholly implemented process improvements, and an alternative precursor is approximately a 50 percent cost reduction for CFC. Figure 4: Factors affecting CF and CFRP Cost or Price Anticipated Reduction in CF Cost or Price from Precursor, Scale, and Process Improvements PAN Precursor, Full-Scale CF Production Polyethylene Precursor Textile Precursor PAN Precursor, Full-Scale CF Production, Process Improvements Lignin Precursor, Full-Scale CF Production Textile Precursor, Full-Scale CF Production Textile Precursor, Full-Scale CF Production, Process Improvements Alternative Precursors, Process Improvements Lignin Precursor, Full-Scale CF Production, Process Improvements 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 4 Documents and reports are inconsistent with the materials discussed and often do not specify what is being referenced.
From page 420...
... Further improvements will occur sufficient for an additional 20 percent cost reduction by 2030, and an alternative precursor will be available and in-use by 2035. In the high-cost scenario, we did not consider any improvements to scale or process until 2030, and the experts do not expect an alternate precursor until after 2035.
From page 421...
... Table 7: High and Low-Cost Scenarios for Materials 2025-2035 LOW Material Cost $/kg range Material 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mild 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 HSS 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 AHSS 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 UHSS 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 Al 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 Mag 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 CFRP 24.00 19.71 16.41 8.74 HIGH Material Cost $/kg range Material 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mild 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 HSS 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 AHSS 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 UHSS 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 Al 2.74 2.74 2.74 2.74 Mag 4.80 4.30 4.00 3.50 CFRP 24.00 24.00 19.71 16.41 Source: CAR Research Manufacturing Cost Manufacturing cost is more difficult to estimate since it depends on many factors such as part complexity, part size, manufacturing process, the volume of production, and manufacturer's "tribal" knowledge. CAR researchers interviewed material suppliers and consortiums to understand the manufacturing cost part of the total part cost.
From page 422...
... for key years Material 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mild 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 HSS 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 AHSS 0.87 0.84 0.82 0.80 UHSS 0.90 0.88 0.85 0.83 Al 1.63 1.53 1.43 1.34 Mag 1.47 1.40 1.34 1.29 Comp 33.14 29.41 26.10 23.16 Source: CAR Research Total Cost To calculate the total cost for material changes, the team added the low and high material costs and each material's manufacturing cost. This exercise resulted in Table 10 and Table 11.
From page 423...
... Battery Cell Energy Density – Assuming similar performance, a battery-electric vehicle usually has a higher curb weight than an internal combustion engine vehicle. The primary reason for the weight difference is because the current batteries have lower energy density than gasoline.
From page 424...
... Battery Cell Energy Density 900 Wh/Liter 700 Wh/Liter Source: CAR Research Table 13: Expected Variable Value for Select Years Year/Variable Electrification Volume Battery Pack Cost Battery Cell Energy Density 2020-2025 Low High Low Mass Market: Low 2025-2030 High Low Premium - High 2030-2035 High Low Low Source: CAR Research Method for Estimating Material Distribution Generalizing material penetration in the U.S. fleet is challenging because of the wide distribution of technology and vehicle-specific lightweighting targets.
From page 425...
... CAR researchers created scenarios using the three variables for the study years 2020-2025, 2025-2030, and 2030-2035. For each scenario, we created a material roadmap for unibody and body-on-frame vehicles.
From page 426...
... Baseline Body: HSS, AHSS, UHSS Low High Low NA 2020 Closures: HSS, low Al Scenario Body: HSS, AHSS, UHSS Mass Market Low High Low One Closures: HSS, Al 2025-2030 Scenario Body: Aluminum, AHSS, UHSS Premium Vehicles High High Low Two Closures: Al, comp, Mag 2025-2030 Scenario Body: AHSS, UHSS, low Al Mass Market High Low Low Three Closures: Al 2030-35 Scenario High Low High AHSS intensive Low Four Source: CAR Research Scenario one is where electrification volume remains low, and battery technology and cost remain at 2020 levels. In this case, automakers may continue to use predominantly high strength steel BIW and a mix of steel and aluminum in the closures.
From page 427...
... . Figure 7: Material Penetration for each Scenario - Unibody Vehicles Material Penetration - Cars and Unibody SUVs Scenario 3 Mass Market 2030-35 Scenario 2 Premium 2025-2030 Scenario 1 Mass Market 2025-2030 2020 Baseline 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 2020 Baseline Mass Market Premium Mass Market 2025-2030 2025-2030 2030-35 Mild 10% 0% 0% 0% HSS 44% 35% 0% 18% AHSS 40% 52% 22% 49% UHSS 2% 7% 6% 15% Al 4% 6% 65% 18% Mag 0% 0% 3% 0% Comp 0% 0% 4% 0% Source: CAR Research To understand the cost penalty for ligthweighting, the team multiplied each component mass with the high and low cost of material change from Table 10 and Table 11 to understand the incremental cost range.
From page 428...
... Scenario $1.5 - $3.5 Body: AHSS, UHSS, low Al Mass Market High Low Low ~12% 4 - 6% Three CY: 2035 Closures: Al 2030-35 Scenario High Low High* - AHSS intensive not in scope Low Four Source: CAR Research Real-world mass reduction might be less due to mass add-back *
From page 429...
... Figure 8: Technology Pathway and Relative Cost for Unibody Cars and SUVs Source: CAR Research MMU – Mass Market Unibody PU – Premium Unibody Cost Year – projected material and manufacturing cost for analysis in the year * with secondary mass reduction Real world cost curve will be higher than the shown curve due to real-world constraints and mass add-back.
From page 430...
... In general, carbon fiber composites' use makes lightweighting very expensive because of the high raw material and manufacturing cost. Therefore, new generation steels and aluminum will remain the material of choice for lightweighting of unibody vehicles until polymer composites become affordable for high-volume vehicles.
From page 431...
... Table 16: Scenarios for Body-on-Frame vehicles Electrification Battery Battery Scenario Volume Expected Material Trend Expected Year Pack cost Density (CAFE/GHG proxy) Body: AHSS, UHSS Baseline Low High Low Frame: AHSS, UHSS NA 2020 Closures: HSS, Al Body: AHSS, UHSS, Al Scenario Mass Market Low High Low Frame: AHSS, UHSS One 2025-2030 Closures: Al Body: Aluminum Frame: AHSS, UHSS Closures: Al Scenario Premium Vehicles High High Low OR Two 2025-2030 Body: Aluminum, CFRP Frame: AHSS, UHSS Closures: Al, CFRP, Mag Body: AHSS, UHSS, Al Scenario Mass Market High Low Low Frame: AHSS, UHSS Three 2030-35 Closures: Al Source: CAR Research The baseline MY2020 BoF vehicles use more advanced materials than mass-market unibody vehicles.
From page 432...
... Wherever the cost penalty range was too broad, we consulted with subject-matter-experts to narrow down the range. Table 17 shows the cost penalty range and mass reduction for each of the BoF scenarios.
From page 433...
... $0.0 - $1.0 Body: AHSS, UHSS, Al Scenario Three High Low Low Frame: AHSS, UHSS 5% 2-3% CY: 2035 Closures: Al Source: CAR Research Real world mass reduction might be less due to mass add-back For scenario two alternative, CFRP is used for Fender, Pickup box floor, and tailgate. Magnesium for I.P.
From page 434...
... with secondary mass-reduction Real world cost curve will be higher than the shown curve due to real-world constraints and mass add-back.
From page 435...
... The cost penalty for using advanced materials increases when switching parts from steel or aluminum, but it increases exponentially when carbon fiber composites are introduced. Since the industry is very cost-sensitive, automakers will likely choose steel or aluminum as primary materials for high-volume pickups.
From page 436...
... For example, carbon fiber composite materials provide strength to the vehicles' structure while reducing weight by almost 50-60 percent compared to mild steel but are very expensive. On the other hand, aluminum can provide 20-30 percent mass-reduction at less cost than carbon fiber composites.
From page 437...
... . Global Carbon Fiber Composites Supply Chain Competitiveness Analysis.
From page 438...
... . Optimized Carbon Fiber Composites in Wind Turbine Blade Design.
From page 439...
... . Draft Final Report Mass Reduction for Light-Duty Vehicles for Model Years 2017-2025.
From page 440...
... . Lower Cost, Higher Performance Carbon Fiber.
From page 441...
... APPENDIX E 441 Appendix A: Curb Weight and Footprint Comparison The charts below compare the baseline fleet's (33 top-selling vehicles in the MY2020 fleet) curb weight and footprints of vehicles with their previous generation.
From page 442...
... 442 ASSESSMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY -- 2025–2035 Pickup 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% SILVERADO RAM PICKUP F SERIES SIERRA TACOMA -5% -10% -15% MR% Delta Footprint Unibody Vehicles 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% MR% Delta Footprint Body on Frame Vehicles 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% SILVERADO RAM PICKUP F SERIES SIERRA TACOMA WRANGLER -5% -10% -15% MR% Delta Footprint © CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH | 2020 44


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