Critical Findings on COVID-19 Select Publications from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2021) / Chapter Skim
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Rapid Expert Consultation on SARS-CoV-2 Survival in Relation to Temperature and Humidity and Potential for Seasonality for the COVID-19 Pandemic (April 7, 2020)
Rapid Expert Consultation on SARS-CoV-2 Survival in Relation to Temperature and Humidity and Potential for Seasonality for the COVID-19 Pandemic (April 7, 2020)
Pages 34-39
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From page 34... ...
Droegemeier: Attached please find a rapid expert consultation on the topics of virus survival in relation to temperature and humidity and potential for seasonal reduction and resurgence of cases. This assessment was prepared by members of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine's Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats.
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From page 35... ...
The most common approach to issue 2 is with natural history studies that observe disease transmission in different locations and times of year and seek correlations with environmental conditions such as temperature and humidity. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses: with experimental studies, environmental conditions can be controlled, but almost always the conditions fail to adequately mimic those of the natural setting; with natural history studies, the conditions are relevant and reflect the real world, but there is typically little control of environmental conditions and there are many confounding factors.
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From page 36... ...
4 Personal communication, Chad Roy, Tulane University National Primate Research Center, March 24, 2020. 5 Personal communication, George Korch and Mike Hevey, National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center, March 24, 2020.
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From page 37... ...
Isolates from early and late in the pandemic and from different geographic regions should be studied and compared. NATURAL HISTORY STUDIES Studies published so far have conflicting results regarding potential seasonal effects and are hampered by poor data quality, confounding factors, and insufficient time since the beginning of the pandemic from which to draw conclusions.
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From page 38... ...
There are also important confounding factors associated with geography and hence, with temperature and humidity: access to and quality of public health and health care systems, per capita income, human behavioral patterns, and the availability of diagnostics. As a reflection of these confounding factors, those studies that show a significant correlation between temperature and humidity and disease transmission, also show that the two factors explain only a small fraction of the overall variation in transmission rates.
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From page 39... ...
Additional studies as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic unfolds could shed more light on the effects of climate on transmission. In summary, although experimental studies show a relationship between higher temperatures and humidity levels, and reduced survival of SARS-CoV-2 in the laboratory, there are many other factors besides environmental temperature, humidity, and survival of the virus outside of the host, that influence and determine transmission rates among humans in the "real world." My colleagues and I hope this input is helpful to you as you continue to guide the nation's response in this ongoing public health crisis.
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