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Rental Eviction and the COVID-19 Pandemic Averting a Looming Crisis (2022) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix B: Scenario Planning Approach
Pages 57-60

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From page 57...
... In contrast to approaches based on a single base case determined by a quantitative forecasting model or in some other fashion, considering a set of scenarios allows planners to pinpoint features common to a range of likely possibilities and therefore propose robust strategies. By incorporating uncertainty as a central feature of the process, planners are encouraged to focus more concretely on the realities of unknowns, external forces, and uncontrollable factors that help define the planning environment.
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From page 58...
... The Strategy Group restricted its selection of actions to those that would demonstrably mitigate the pandemic-related strains on health, human dignity, society, and the economy associated with evictions and housing instability -- while also shedding light on opportunities to build resilience in preparation for future crises. The end product was a set of interventions that were systemic and adaptive across a broad range of potential future circumstances.
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From page 59...
... In response to the dynamics of this scenario, the Strategy Group identified strategies for extending the federal, state, and local authority eviction moratoriums, including providing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with rapid expert consultation; researching and clearly identifying disparities, gaps, and loopholes that have exacerbated the impacts of COVID-19 on rental housing security; researching affordable housing market inventory and underutilized properties; and developing strong data systems to enable tracking of issues and progress toward long-term improvements in rental housing security. Scenario 4: This is a world in which the response to COVID-19 remains fragmented and inadequate, while a shifting focus on climate change with early successes to boost new energy and resilient infrastructure leads to recovery of the economy and increased systemic resilience to other external disruptors.
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Key Terms

  • housing instability
  • rental eviction
  • affordable housing
  • identified strategies
  • housing security

  • public trust
  • plausible narratives
  • human dignity
  • external disruptors
  • looming crisis

  • rental evictions
  • reduce rental
  • housing market
  • authority eviction
  • federal resources

  • critical uncertainties
  • enable tracking
  • single base
  • framing uncertainties
  • factors involved

  • help define
  • continued fragmented
  • approaches based
  • underutilized properties
  • central feature

  • disruptors leads
  • scenarios allows
  • eviction moratoriums
  • additional disruptors
  • including providing


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