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7 Realizing the Opportunities: Medium- and Large-Scale Programs
Pages 180-220

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From page 180...
... Astronomy is fortunate that most of its facilities are multipurpose and can simultaneously address multiple distinct science questions. Likewise, a major theme stressed by the program panels and the survey committee's own analysis is that because different wavelengths and messengers provide such essentially different and complementary views of the universe, a diversity of observational resources is needed to tackle the questions identified by the science panels.
From page 181...
... Conclusion: The decadal survey committee's recommendations for advancing the new programs or augmentations are predicated on the assumption that the major astrophysics facilities and missions in NASA, NSF, and DOE's current plans are completed and fully supported for baseline operations and science. New recommendations for space are additionally predicated on the assumption that NASA's Explorer program maintains the current, healthy selection rate.
From page 182...
... James Webb Space Telescope 6.5 m IR telescope First galaxies, star and planet formation, cosmic feedback Roman Space Telescope 2.4 m wide field of view Cosmology, exoplanet microlensing, O/IR telescope GO program U.S. contribution to Euclid (ESA 1.2 m aperture telescope, Dark matter, dark energy, expansion led M-class mission)
From page 183...
... In prioritizing the new, large projects, the survey committee adopted a set of guiding principles. Primary among these is that large strategic missions and MREFC-scale observatories must each advance a broad set of Astro2020's priority science questions.
From page 184...
... frontier projects; large strategic missions in space and MREFC-scale observatories on the ground. Specifically, the third Frontier Projects category includes space missions in excess of $1.5 billion, and those ground-based projects individually exceeding $135 million.
From page 185...
... estimated at $11 billiona  Stage 4 Cosmic Microwave Background Enabling Programs (Space) Observatory  NSF share $273 million, DOE share $387 million Great Observatories Mission and Technology Maturation Program The ngVLA Program to co-mature large strategic missions  Design, cost trade studies and prototyping to and technologies.
From page 186...
... Rather than recommending missions in a rank-ordered list as they were presented in concept studies and white papers, the survey recommends a new strategy for rephasing mission and technology maturation and decadal survey recommendations (Section 7.5.1)
From page 187...
... SOURCE: Data from https://arxiv.org/pdf/2104.00023.pdf. While NASA's strategic missions must be driven by transformative scientific visions, they must at the same time advance a broad range of scientific objectives.
From page 188...
... Conclusion: Establishing a panchromatic suite of observatories over the next 30 years is essential to address key questions in all three of the survey's priority science themes. The large strategic mission implementations presented to the survey cannot all be built and launched in an optimal timeframe given the current designs, available budgets, and approaches to mission development.
From page 189...
... This was done to some extent with the Great Observatories, in that both Spitzer and Chandra were significantly rescoped relative to the original concepts presented to the decadal surveys, yet both provided transformative observational advances.8 A rephasing of the mission and technology maturation process, with more significant and coordinated investment prior to a decadal survey recommendation to proceed with mission development, would provide multiple important benefits. This rephasing would recognize the multi-decadal timescales associated with large strategic mission and their associated technology maturation, and would better avoid the negative consequences associated with commencing missions prior to this maturation.9 By investing more in the maturation process, NASA could develop missions to a level where there is significantly more confidence in the costs and requisite cost profiles before seeking Congressional approval for the final implementation.
From page 190...
... SOURCE: Fiona Harrison. Recommendation: The NASA Astrophysics Division should establish a Great Observatories Mission and Technology Maturation Program, the purpose of which is to co-develop the science, mission architecture, and technologies for NASA large strategic missions identified as high priority by decadal surveys.
From page 191...
...  to address wavelength gaps,  roadmaps,  Coverage  timelines and  vet new technologies, mature  • Capabilities:  Technology Readiness Level or  mature  existing,  Manufacturing Readiness Level  technologies  planned, sun‐ • Manage GO Grants Program to build  • Wavelength gap  setting  science base for long‐cycle  forecasts &  capabilities  coverage  strategy, incl.  program size  CONTROL • Decadal priorities and decision rules  • Flagship Program Office  • SMD Oversight & Senior Program Review  PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-12
From page 192...
... After an IR/O/UV exoplanet and astrophysics mission enters formulation, the survey assigns equal priority to commencing mission maturation and technology development for a far-IR spectroscopy and imaging strategic mission, and a high spatial and spectral resolution X-ray strategic mission. The survey committee believes an appropriate cost target for implementing these missions is $3 billion– $5 billion (FY2020)
From page 193...
... If available budget levels require a choice to be made about which mission enters the program first, the survey committee suggests that the mid-decadal review evaluate the international scientific landscape, outcome of the probe selection, and that this review provide advice on which should commence maturation first. 7.5.2 Frontier Projects: A Future Large IR/Optical/UV Telescope Optimized for Observing Habitable Exoplanets and General Astrophysics Exploring terrestrial planets outside our Solar System through direct imaging and spectroscopy will advance one of humanity's greatest quests - the search for habitable environments and life outside of the Solar System.
From page 194...
... to address a broad range of astrophysical science selected through guest investigator programs. After considering the analysis from the EOS-1 panel regarding technology readiness, cost, and science capability, and weighing the need for program balance and timeliness, the survey committee PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-15
From page 195...
... The best path forward is to have NASA immediately commence aggressive technology development aimed at achieving the goal described above as part of the Great Observatories Mission and Technology Maturation Program. This program would consider and optimize configurations targeted at performance consistent with the target 6-m off-axis aperture as indicated in Figure 7.6.
From page 196...
... To assess the budget scale and profile requirements for the recommended direct imaging mission, the survey committee performed an analysis assuming the cost profile and schedule from the LUVOIR-B TRACE analysis, normalized to a total integrated cost equivalent to JWST inflated to current year dollars.11 The survey committee believes this is a conservative assumption: the JWST telescope incorporates a 6.5 m segmented primary mirror, and as it operates in the mid-infrared it has many tight thermal requirements. A ~6 m aperture high contrast imaging mission would have the added complexity of extreme starlight suppression, but would operate at and could be tested at room temperature.
From page 197...
... The ability to probe time-variable, explosive and transient phenomena has been propelled by large format detectors, by dramatic computational advances, and in the last decade by the advent of entirely new means of discovering transient phenomena through gravitational waves and high energy neutrinos. As a natural result of their large fields of regard and cadenced observations, time domain observations are a central element of the top ground and space-based projects supported by Astro2010; the Vera Rubin Observatory (referred to as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time [LSST]
From page 198...
... Given the long development timescales for large strategic missions, establishing a ‘probe' class line with mission costs of ~$1.5 billion and launches every decade, will address the need for broad wavelength coverage and scientific balance. Through advances in technology, combined with focused science, missions at this scale can achieve more than an order of magnitude leap in capability, and address scientific areas of high priority.
From page 199...
... The EOS-2 panel considered the landscape for a future far-IR mission prior to ESA discontinuing its consideration of SPICA. The survey committee believes that considering this change in landscape there are many unique opportunities for a properly scoped far-IR probe to advance high priority science, and a probe scale mission is an extremely timely and compelling opportunity to do so.
From page 200...
... For large strategic missions, the highest priority is for NASA to rapidly establish the Great Observatories Mission and Technology Maturation program, with the most important element in that category being to commence maturation of the large IR/O/UV mission. The largest budgetary increase associated with the recommended program arises in the latter half of the decade, assuming that the large IR/O/UV mission is technically ready and sufficiently mature to commence detailed design and implementation (See Figure 7.10)
From page 202...
... Right: Courtesy of the Giant Magellan Telescope – GMTO Corporation. This powerful combination of capabilities can be brought to bear on nearly all of the important science questions laid out by this decadal survey, across all three of our key science themes.13 They will be able to detect, image, and characterize temperate rocky planets around low-mass stars, measure their atmospheric compositions including searches for oxygen, image protoplanetary disks, and through precision radial velocity measurements measure the masses of the planets, vital information only possible with the ELTs.
From page 204...
... Over the last two decades, second- and third-generation ground PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-25
From page 206...
... Such a facility would advance multiple high priority science questions from each of the six Science Panels,14 and open discovery space. These include searching for diagnostic radio emission in compact object mergers from current and future ground- and space-based gravitational wave observatories, mapping the circumgalactic and intergalactic media, cold gas flows inside distant galaxies, and features on the surfaces of nearby stars.
From page 207...
... . Accordingly, the survey believes that the return from the MSIP and MSRI funding programs will be maximized if resources are deployed in a balanced manner that simultaneously accommodates: PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-28
From page 208...
... In the near term, investments that provide public access to some combination of SDSS-V, DESI, and the PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-29
From page 209...
... The LIGO gravitational wave observatory, part of NSF's Gravitational Physics Program, is the prime example. The discovery of gravitational waves from merging black holes in 2015 propelled LIGO to its current essential position as a premier observatory for understanding the demographics and astrophysical PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-30
From page 210...
... Further, the survey was only given budget guidance for NSF AST, and for the agency-wide MREFC program. Of the NSF Physics Division programs, gravitational wave and high energy neutrino detection stand out for having essential scientific motivation in astrophysics.
From page 212...
... At the request of the agency, the survey does not rank projects led out of NSF Physics. However, the survey strongly endorses the central role played by ground-based gravitational wave observatories to many of the survey's high-priority science questions, and urges NSF to invest in a healthy program to develop technologies for future LIGO upgrades and nextgeneration facilities.
From page 213...
... As a result of the discovery of gravitational wave sources in 2015, and the burgeoning of time-domain astronomy this decade, Astro2020 identified "New Windows on the Dynamic Universe" as one of its priority science areas for the coming decades. Roman, with its wide field of view, and flexible pointing could provide unique time domain surveys, possibly coordinated with other efforts.
From page 214...
... Conclusion: The scientific landscape and the Roman Space Telescope's capabilities have changed significantly since it was first envisioned by New Worlds, New Horizons, and the currently planned balance of surveys and guest investigator-led observations may not be optimally suited to take advantage of new scientific opportunities. Recommendation: NASA Astrophysics Division should hold a non-advocate review of the Roman Space Telescope's science program to set the appropriate mix of survey time devoted to the weak lensing, baryon acoustic oscillations, supernovae, and microlensing programs relative to guest investigator-led observing programs during the primary 5 year mission.
From page 215...
... and a major augmentation to the Explorer program. At the time that LISA was evaluated by Astro2010, enthusiasm for the science that this low-frequency gravitational wave mission could achieve was very high, however Astro2010 judged that advancement to the highest priority large strategic mission should be contingent on the success of the LISA Pathfinder technology demonstration mission, and also further development of the mission concept, costs and risks.
From page 216...
... This survey emphasizes the need for investment in maturation programs (e.g. the Great Observatories Mission and Technology Maturation Program for NASA, and ngVLA design and prototyping efforts for NSF)
From page 217...
... The starting point for projecting the NSF AST budget and PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-38
From page 218...
... Even with a new paradigm for operations funding that is not within NSF AST, the growth in the field spurred by new facilities will need to be matched by similar increases in support for research to ensure a robust science environment. 20 https://www.nsf.gov/about/budget/fy2021/pdf/27_fy2021.pdf PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 7-39
From page 219...
... All large strategic mission activities start within the maturation program. When a large strategic mission achieves sufficient maturity, and has a scope consistent with decadal recommendations, mission-specific funding begins.
From page 220...
... The operations costs are also assumed at 60 percent for DOE and 40 percent for NSF. 7.9 ANALYSIS OF CONSISTENCY WITH BUDGETARY GUIDANCE The survey committee performed an analysis to assess whether the proposed program of new activities presented in the roadmap is consistent with envisioned budget profiles provided by the agencies.


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