Skip to main content

Currently Skimming:

Appendix J: Report of the Panel on Electromagnetic Observations from Space 2
Pages 392-414

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 392...
... The panel discussed a wide array of white papers submitted by the community that are germane to this charge.1 In particular, the panel examined materials in support of two proposed Flagship mission concepts, Lynx and the Origins Space Telescope, that provide new capabilities for X-ray and far-IR observations, respectively, as well as a suite of Probe mission concepts covering a variety of fields. The panel requested and received Technical, Risk, and Cost Evaluations (TRACE)
From page 393...
... Fire and Smoke are based on the proposed flagship missions Lynx and Origins, respectively, but are scaled to fit into a single flagship program organized around the investigation of the cosmic dance science. While optimized for that central focus, however, they will still enable a broad array of other science highlighted by the science panels.
From page 394...
... In Section J.4, a rationale is provided for reformulating these mission concepts into a single Flagship program consisting of two notional missions, Fire and Smoke, which are jointly optimized for the study of the "cosmic dance," the complex interaction of galaxies and the giant black holes at their cores. A new approach is suggested for the co-development of these missions, within realistic NASA budget profiles, that would allow them to be operating contemporaneously.
From page 395...
... ) member states Cosmic rays Up to PeV eXTP China/ESA X-ray imaging 2–50 keV 2027 member states Polarimetry 2–10 keV Spectroscopy 0.5–10 keV; 6–10 keV ARIEL/CASE ESA/NASA IR spectroscopy 1.25–7.8 µm 2029 Visible/IR photometry 0.5–0.55 µm; 0.8–1.0 µm; 1.0–1.2 µm Athena ESA X-ray imaging and spectroscopy 0.3–10 keV; 0.1–12 keV Early 2030s LISA ESA Gravitational waves 2 × 10-5–3 × 10-2 Hz 2034 PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION J-4
From page 396...
... 10 NASA, 2013, Enduring Quests, Daring Visions: NASA Astrophysics in the Next Three Decades, NASA Astrophysics Subcommittee, Washington, DC, https://science.nasa.gov/science-red/s3fs-public/atoms/files/secureAstrophysics_Roadmap_2013_0.pdf.
From page 398...
... The Lynx team clearly recognizes this industrialization challenge and the need for tackling it early, as evidenced by publications and by a recently established contract with industry partners experienced in large-scale fabrication. J.2.3 TRACE Analysis of the Lynx Proposal A TRACE analysis of the Lynx program plan was performed by the Aerospace Corporation to provide an independent assessment of the cost, schedule, and risk baseline.
From page 399...
... NASA Astrophysics budget for new missions that was presented to the panel, an additional 3+ years would be required. J.3 PROPOSED FAR INFRARED FLAGSHIP MISSION CONCEPT: ORIGINS SPACE TELESCOPE The Origins Space Telescope is the second major Flagship mission concept that falls within the purview of the EOS2 panel.11 The mission concept is based on the Far-IR Surveyor notional mission envisioned in the NASA Astrophysics Roadmap Enduring Quests, Daring Visions.12 It would incorporate a 5.9 m cryogenic space telescope, operating from 2.8 to 588 μm, and deliver > 1000 times higher sensitivity than previous far IR/submillimeter missions.
From page 401...
... . SOURCE: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 2019, Origins Space Telescope Mission Concept Study Report, Astrophysics Science Division, Greenbelt, MD.
From page 402...
... OSS development was also identified as the critical path by the Origins team. Although the allocation of reserves drove the TRACE analysis to predict a higher cost for Origins, the panel notes that the TRACE analysis predicted lower costs for the OSS and FIP instruments as compared to the Origins team estimates.
From page 403...
... The synergy between powerful X-ray and FIR observations is particularly strong in the study of the fundamental and intricate cosmic dance between star formation in galaxies, and the growth of their central BHs from the earliest times (see Section D-Q3)
From page 404...
... is much too low to velocity-resolve the gas flowing into and out of galaxies. In summary, a Flagship program is clearly required to enable the cosmic dance science.
From page 405...
... The proposed costing for these missions, at ~$1 billion each as described in the concept reports and white papers, also assumed all requisite technology has achieved ~TRL 5 or 6 prior to mission start. Addressing the necessary technology development to achieve cosmic dance science by implementing the ~$1.1 billion technology development program defined for Lynx and Origins, and recognizing these Probe-class programs would still need to be scaled up somewhat following the incorporation of this new technology, this panel found that a reasonable lower bound for the total cosmic dance program cost is on the order of a few billion dollars.
From page 406...
... The panel was able to perform a more comprehensive cost estimation for Fire and Smoke by utilizing the TRACE estimates for the individual instruments required to accomplish the cosmic dance science. For Fire, this would be a wide-field imaging detector, while for Smoke, it would be a spectroscopic survey instrument.
From page 407...
... TABLE J.2 EOS2-Related Probe-Scale Mission Concepts Mission Lead Closest Science Capabilities Spectral Concept Author Predecessor Coverage FARSIDE Burns N/A z > 10 neutral hydrogen and SETI search 200 kHz–40 MHz on lunar far side; exoplanets; heliophysics PICO Hanany Planck CMB polarization anisotropy 21–799 GHz CMB Spectral Kogut FIRAS CMB spectral distortions 10–6000 GHz Distortions GEP Glenn Spitzer, Star formation and SMBH growth over 400–10 µm Herschel cosmic time TSO Grindlay N/A UV–mid-IR time domain astronomy 5.0–0.3 µm follow up AXIS Mushotzky Chandra, Growth and fueling of SMBHs; transient 0.3–10 keV Athena universe; galaxy formation and evolution STROBE-X Ray RXTE Compact objects; X-ray counterparts; time 0.2–50 keV domain astronomy HEX-P Madsen NuSTAR Accreting compact objects; extreme 2–200 keV environments around black holes; neutron stars TAP Camp Swift Time-domain astrophysics 0.4 keV–1 MeV AMEGO McEnery Compton, Multi-messenger; γ-ray studies of neutron 200 keV–10 GeV Fermi star mergers; supernovae; flaring AGN POEMMA Olinto N/A Ultra high-energy cosmic rays and cosmic Cosmic rays > 2 × neutrinos from space 1019 eV Neutrinos > 20 PeV MFB Michelson N/A Fills gaps in frequency coverage between Gravitational waves LIGO and LISA 10 mHz–1 Hz Institution of a Probe class of missions would enable a broader NASA Astrophysics program, more balanced in size, cost, wavelength, and messenger coverage, that would better address the extraordinary range and richness of 21st century astrophysics. A truly open competition would be most responsive to the community and would enable new opportunities.
From page 408...
... An appropriate total life-cycle cost of this coordinated program would be up to $1 billion over the decade. This estimate comes from the costing analyses of specific Probe-class mission studies that meet PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION J-17
From page 409...
... From the ground, CMB polarization observations offer better angular resolution, using large aperture telescopes that would PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION J-18
From page 410...
... Past Flagship missions have focused on maximizing broad science return within a given wavelength band. Programs driven instead by a prioritized set of key science questions may make it easier to optimize design trades that control cost growth.
From page 412...
... While each of these mission concepts is tremendously promising in its own right, the panel judged that the contemporaneous presence of both an advanced X-ray mission and an advanced far IR mission would be even more compelling, given the strong complementarity between X-ray and FIR observations. The panel suggested that Lynx and Origins could be jointly reoptimized to yield two smaller, but achievable missions, Fire and Smoke, that would together execute a single program focused on studying the cosmic dance between BHs and their host galaxies as the Universe evolved.
From page 413...
... 4. What seeds supermassive black holes, D, Fire and Smoke: Detecting and characterizing the population of seed black and how do they grow?
From page 414...
... 3. How do supermassive black holes form, D, Fire: Measuring luminosity function of rapidly growing black holes in the and how is their growth coupled to the first Gyr.


This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More information on Chapter Skim is available.