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Appendix C: Potential Scenarios
Pages 116-118

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From page 116...
... Quantum computers and/or new factoring techniques threaten data previously encrypted with older algorithms; successful post continued quantum transition mitigates the damage; deterioration of international trust leads to splintering of Internet and local 5G/6G; wide use of new techniques for computation on encrypted data to limit data sharing; Intelligence Community is forced to increase collection efforts to offset lost partnerships; some countries ban end-to-end encryption and keep extensive data on citizens, creating targets for collection; loss of trust in governments amplifies insiders as an offensive opportunity and a defensive threat; growth of untraceable digital currency systems raises challenges to financial intelligence collection; high quality standards and implementation enhance success of IA and this plus rapid changes in technology make collection more challenging.
From page 117...
... Quantum computer breakthroughs and factoring improvements threaten classic cryptography; post-quantum implementations are late and vulnerable; implementations of computation on encrypted data are buggy, leading to easy attacks on the new mechanisms; deterioration of international trust leads to splintering of Internet and local 5G/6G; adoption of computation on encrypted data limited by poor quality standards and implementations; Intelligence Community is forced to increase collection efforts to offset lost partnerships; some countries ban end-to-end encryption and keep extensive data on citizens, creating targets for collection; loss of trust in governments amplifies insiders as an offensive opportunity and a defensive threat; fragmented policy environment increases the Intelligence Community workload -- every country has its own buggy implementations; pervasive use of poor quality systems facilitates offensive mission. 7 Chaotic Predictable Global Balance favors offense.
From page 118...
... 118 CRYPTOGRAPHY AND THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY TABLE C.1 Continued Scientific Society and Scenario Systems Advances Governance Description 8 Chaotic Disruptive Global Balance favors offense. Quantum computer breakthroughs and factoring improvements threaten classic cryptography; post-quantum implementations and standards are poor quality, late, and vulnerable; implementations of computation on encrypted data are buggy, leading to easy attacks on the new mechanisms; despite common standards, IoT, 5G/6G, and cryptocurrencies suffer from reliance on poor quality standards and code; international partnerships and global sharing of commercial/private information amplify the impact of poor technical security; common international standards mean that effective offensive techniques often have global reach.


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