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3 Methodology
Pages 35-39

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From page 35...
... • Assess the national security, intelligence, and broad societal implications of each scenario determined by the committee to be most worthy of attention; identify and assess options for responding to these scenarios; and assess the implications for future Intelligence Community science and technology and security investments. For the purposes of this study, the committee used a tailored mix of approaches based on the work of futures and strategic foresight firms, such as Toffler Associates and academic researchers such as Steven Weber at the Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity.1,2 The committee followed a five-step process: 1.
From page 36...
... becomes widely available before Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQCs) ; assuming that CRQCs or other means of exploiting protected data become widely available before appropriately resistant cryptology; or assuming that PQC and other resistant cryptology become widespread only shortly before (within 5 years)
From page 37...
... Creating and Naming Drivers and Endpoints To develop the drivers, the committee reviewed the data from the environmental scan, the members' understanding of encryption and related policy and technology issues, and the issues raised by the statement of task, and discussed the features and implications that emerged. Through a series of facilitated discussions, the committee BOX 3.2 Drivers Developing Scenarios Each driver has two endpoints and, where those endpoints converge, creates a unique scenario -- three drivers create eight scenarios.
From page 38...
... Like the creation of the drivers and endpoints, the narrative for each of the eight scenarios involves a mixture of imagination and analytical rigor -- although they might not necessarily be probable, they must be both possible and plausible. Possible because no scenario should necessarily break the accepted laws of physics; plausible because they should allow decision makers to see themselves (or a future version of themselves)
From page 39...
... Each of the scenarios selected by the committee presents varying degrees of complexity to explore the future of encryption and the impacts on the Intelligence Community. Once the committee selected the three scenarios that it would explore, it set out to design detailed narratives that would help to capture the relevant aspects of each.

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