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5 Scenarios
Pages 81-100

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From page 81...
... Choosing these scenarios allowed members to explore two technology breakthroughs that would impact existing public key cryptographic algorithms: a breakthrough in quantum computing and the discovery of a new cryptanalytic method usable on classical computers. These scenarios also provided opportunities to highlight the important role that systems and cybersecurity will play in the future.
From page 82...
... After an algorithmic advance that allowed a practical speedup for deep learning algorithms on NISQ computers, the major cloud computing platforms began offering time on quantum computing coprocessors. The early commercially available computers had error rates that were too high to run Shor's algorithm to break public-key encryption, but this was no matter: the market was much more interested in large-scale commercial applications.
From page 83...
... International relations in this scenario fragment into a small number of blocs composed of a few major powers (the United States, the European Union, China) and a large number of dependent powers that, for the Europe, led by Germany's BSI,1 decided that, although NIST ran a good process, they had selected the wrong most part, rely on a major power for economic, technological, and defense support.
From page 84...
... Dependent nations rely on the national algorithms from a major power for their international banking systems, their information technology, and so forth. In most cases, they adopt the cryptographic systems of their major power partner but are generally suspicious that there may be backdoors or weaknesses in such systems and are certain that they are not getting "the really good stuff." They are also heavily reliant on the "Big Three'' for vaccines and other bio-engineering products; new diseases are sweeping through all the time, endangering both people and agriculture.
From page 85...
... Warning Signals for Scenario 2 Table 5.3 summarizes some key developments associated with Scenario 2, along with warning signals that might indicate to the Intelligence Community that this scenario is emerging. Risks and Opportunities in Scenario 2 "A Brave and Expensive New World" appears to be great powers jockeying for territory and influence across a series of constantly changing alliances.
From page 86...
... Over the decade, countries and companies on a Chaotic Systems axis. invested heavily in improving cybersecurity, focusing on high quality standards and implementations." "But the changing geopolitical landscape over the decade led to a frac- Are national standards and encryption algorithms emerging around turing of standards and the rise of national algorithms (that is, country- the world or are countries continuing to engage in and adopt specific cryptographic technologies)
From page 87...
... Properly placed assets could also facilitate technical attacks on their countries' cryptographic systems by influencing national encryption standards while they were under development. • New opportunities: If mature implementations become available for computation on encrypted data, this may open novel opportunities.
From page 88...
... • Limit/mitigate fragmentation, both in technologies and between the United States and allies: The Intelligence Community and the United States will need to consult with current allies and try to leverage purchasing power to push common standards and increase implementation maturity. The Intelligence Community will need to emphasize its efforts to preserve existing relationships with allies, but potentially plan to pivot toward new, perhaps short-term relationships.
From page 89...
... Within blocs, government surveillance is the norm, SCENARIOS 89 although some governments and some private companies use new capabilities for processing encrypted data to protect sensitive processing. TABLE 5.4  Scenario 5: The Known World, Only More So Scenario Title Scenario Title Driver Endpoints Driver Endpoints Highlight Highlight TheKnown The Known World, World,Only Predictable Predictable With no major With breakthroughs no major and a continued breakthroughs andlack of focus on lack a continued of More So Fragmented systems and security, breaches remain common; meanwhile, the Only More So Fragmented Chaotic focus on systems and security, breaches remain slow pace of technology change has allowed emerging competitors Chaotic thecommon; meanwhile, chance to "catch up." the slow pace of technology Scenario Description change has allowed emerging competitors the chance to "catch up." This scenario posits that there are no major breakthroughs regarding a quantum computer, as well as a continued lack of focus on systems and security.
From page 90...
... Risks and Opportunities in Scenario 5 Although "The Known World, Only More So" might appear similar to "The World Today in 2030," the combination of Predictable, Fragmented, and Chaotic presents a challenging and complex operating environment for the Intelligence Community. In this scenario, there is no quantum computing or classical cryptographic break driving a sense of urgency or advantage/disadvantage, and that gives a number of global competitors (countries and non-state actors)
From page 91...
... ‘region' drivers and virtual private network (VPN) software that installed the national algorithms, local government root certificates, and other cryptographic parameters required to access network resources in a given country." "The long-standing intelligence relationships, such as the ‘Five How are allied relationships progressing?
From page 92...
... • Maintain trust: International buy-in to the NIST standardization process is important for a smooth post quantum algorithm transition timeline. As discussed in Chapter 2, this trust has been challenged in the past by reactions to the actions of the U.S.
From page 93...
... Compared to a quantum computing breakthrough, a factoring breakthrough In this scenario, wouldCommunity the Intelligence probablyhas have less to be advance on the lookout notice, be easierthat for a breakthrough towill keep secret, be less easilyand be attainable discerned and more by more easily countries. hidden than a large-scale quantum computer.
From page 94...
... Worse yet, malicious updates to a wide range of devices began to cause havoc: home video cameras began streaming to the public at large, microwave ovens overheated, one type of gasoline pump kept pumping gas even after the tank was overflowing. As vendors began a "rapid transition" to post-quantum encryption, they encountered further obstacles.
From page 95...
... This would seem likely to engender a high degree of distrust in all such systems, as one never knows what will fail next. Risks and opportunities for the Intelligence Community have some similarities with the Scenario 1, "Quantum Breakthrough," but differ in two key points: TABLE 5.7  Key Developments and Warning Signals for Scenario 6: Colony Collapse Development Warning Signal "In 2024, a European mathematician published a paper about a new more efficient way Has the Intelligence Community seen of factoring large numbers.
From page 96...
... Fragmentation of the scenario's information infrastructures increases the cost of intelligence collection from information systems, as every system requires its own tailored implementation. Risks for the Intelligence Community in this scenario that are not shared with the "Quantum Breakthrough" scenario include the following: • Analytic breakthroughs could create very high risk at short notice: Encrypted communications or stored data whose protection relied on vulnerable public-key encryption that an adversary has collected or saved may -- without much warning -- suddenly be at risk of decryption and exploitation.
From page 97...
... Actions Relevant to Scenario 6 The sections below first list those actions that are shared with the "A Brave and Expensive New World" scenario, so the reader does not need to flip pages back and forth, then explicitly call out additional risks for this scenario. These actions are shared: • Move to mature systems: This will require enormous effort across the United States, as the current status is at the "chaotic" end of the spectrum for nearly all systems.
From page 98...
... Such a pivot will require both political resources and tending such relationships. Last, because technology fragmentation is a key feature of this scenario, the Intelligence Community needs to learn new technologies and standards; there will be many more of them than at present, and with a higher rate of disruptive scientific advances.
From page 99...
... to pivot to new targets or allies; and it is unwise to share important secrets with any other nation. The Intelligence Community, and the United States, will need to consider how it shares information and perhaps look more to transactional, ad hoc, arrangements, rather than traditional alliances that dominated the previous decades.
From page 100...
... . Limit/mitigate fragmentation, The Intelligence Community and the United States will need to consult with current allies, mobilize other both in technologies and government agencies including NIST, and try to leverage purchasing power to push common standards between the United States and increase implementation maturity.


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