Understanding the Aging Workforce Defining a Research Agenda (2022) / Chapter Skim
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From page 21... ...
The countries with the smallest absolute difference in labor force participation rates between men and women (Figure 2-5) also tend to be those with low
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From page 22... ...
NOTE: Figure 2-3 shows the labor force participation rate by age group and gender in selected years between 2000 and 2019 (top panels) , as well as the absolute change in the labor force participation rate (middle panel)
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From page 23... ...
For this reason, the gender gap in labor force participation among those ages 65 and over in the United States falls in the middle of the distribution of 34 countries shown in Figures 2-4 and 2-5. However, in the United States, labor force participation rates for men are only 33.5 percent higher than the rates for women.
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NOTE: The left panel shows the absolute difference in rates. The right panel shows the difference as a percent of men's labor force participation.
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, the average labor force participation rate is the average rate calculated from the five single-year ages for each of the five single-years of birth (25 values)
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From page 26... ...
26 UNDERSTANDING THE AGING WORKFORCE TABLE 2-1 Distribution of Workers across Occupation Groups by Age Group, 2004 vs. 2019 PANEL A Ages 50 and Over Ages 40 and Under 2004 2019 2004 2019 Occupation Group Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank % Management Occupations 2 11.3 1 12.5 7 6.1 5 7.2 Office and Administrative Support 1 15.7 2 12.0 1 14.8 2 10.1 Sales and Related 3 11.3 3 9.4 2 12.9 1 11.2 Transportation and Material Moving 6 6.3 4 7.9 6 6.3 4 8.0 Education, Training, and Library 5 6.9 5 6.6 8 4.9 6 5.7 Production 4 7.5 6 6.0 5 6.4 8 5.2 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 7 4.7 7 5.9 10 3.8 7 5.4 Construction 8 4.7 8 4.6 4 6.7 9 5.0 Building/Grounds Maintenance 9 4.4 9 4.4 9 3.9 12 3.5 Business Operations 14 2.1 10 3.2 18 1.6 14 2.9 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 10 3.3 11 3.2 12 3.2 15 2.8 Healthcare Support 16 1.9 12 3.2 13 2.5 11 3.6 Food Preparation and Serving 12 2.9 13 3.1 3 8.6 3 9.4 Computer and Mathematical 20 1.4 14 2.5 14 2.3 13 3.3 Personal Care and Service 11 3.0 15 2.3 11 3.7 10 3.7 Financial Operations 13 2.2 16 2.3 17 1.9 19 1.7 Architecture and Engineering 15 2.0 17 2.1 19 1.5 18 1.8 Protective Service 17 1.9 18 2.0 15 2.3 17 2.3 Arts, Entertainment, Sports, Media 18 1.8 19 1.9 16 2.0 16 2.3 Community and Social Service 19 1.8 20 1.9 20 1.2 20 1.6 Legal 21 1.2 21 1.3 22 0.9 22 0.8 Life, Physical, and Social Sciences 22 0.9 22 0.9 23 0.9 21 1.1 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 23 0.7 23 0.6 21 0.9 23 0.8 Extraction 24 0.1 24 0.1 25 0.1 25 0.2 Military 25 0.0 25 0.1 24 0.4 24 0.6 PANEL B Ages 50–59 Ages 60–69 Ages 70 and Over 2004 2019 2004 2019 2004 2019 Occupation Group Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank % Management Occupations 2 11.7 1 13.0 3 10.6 2 12.0 3 10.8 3 11.6 Office and Administrative Support 1 15.4 2 11.4 1 16.2 1 12.7 1 15.9 1 12.9 Sales and Related 3 10.3 3 8.8 2 12.2 3 9.5 2 15.0 2 12.0 Transportation and Material Moving 6 6.0 4 8.1 5 6.7 4 7.7 4 6.7 5 7.8 Production 4 7.7 5 6.4 4 7.7 7 6.0 6 5.3 7 4.2 Education, Training, and Library 5 7.3 6 6.0 6 6.6 5 6.9 7 5.2 4 8.0 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 7 5.1 7 5.6 9 4.1 6 6.4 9 3.8 6 5.5 Construction 8 5.0 8 5.3 8 4.2 9 4.3 10 3.8 12 2.8 Building/Grounds Maintenance 9 4.0 9 4.5 7 4.9 8 4.4 5 5.7 8 4.1 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 10 3.6 10 3.4 11 3.1 11 3.2 15 2.0 17 2.4 Food Preparation and Serving 12 2.7 11 3.4 10 3.2 13 2.8 11 3.6 16 2.5
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From page 27... ...
Since labor force participation drops significantly among those ages 60 and over, the rankings for those ages 50 and over largely reflect employment among those ages 50–59 (Table 2-1, Panel B)
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.3 2 Results are presented separately by gender because sex segregation of occupations declined substantially during the lives of these older workers (Blau et al., 2013) , but segregation patterns when entering the labor market may persist throughout the life course.
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THE EMERGING OLDER WORKFORCE 29 TABLE 2-2 Occupation Groups with the Highest Percentages of Oldest and Youngest Workers by Gender and Age Group, 2004 vs. 2019 PANEL A: MEN Ages 50+ Ages 50–59 Ages 60–69 Ages 70+ Under Age 40 Occupation 2004 2019 2004 2019 2004 2019 2004 2019 2004 2019 Legal 1 1 1 9 4 1 2 1 24 24 Management Occupations 3 2 2 1 5 3 7 8 25 25 Community and Social Service 2 3 3 12 2 2 1 2 23 23 Architecture and Engineering 8 4 7 4 10 4 16 12 20 22 Financial Operations 6 5 8 11 6 6 5 3 19 19 Business Operations 5 6 5 6 3 9 4 11 22 21 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 7 7 6 13 13 7 8 5 21 20 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 15 8 11 2 18 11 21 18 15 18 Building/Grounds Maintenance 11 9 14 7 7 10 9 14 13 15 Education, Training, and Library 4 10 4 16 1 8 12 4 18 17 Life, Physical, and Social Sciences 9 11 9 19 11 5 15 7 17 14 Production 12 12 10 3 16 12 19 20 16 16 Transportation and Material Moving 13 13 13 8 12 14 14 15 12 11 Sales and Related 10 14 12 14 8 13 10 9 14 10 Arts, Entertainment, Sports, Media 16 15 15 20 19 15 11 10 10 9 Protective Service 14 16 17 10 14 19 13 16 11 12 Construction 22 17 20 5 22 18 20 21 8 13 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 19 18 22 18 15 17 6 13 5 7 Office and Administrative Support 17 19 18 17 17 16 17 17 7 6 Healthcare Support 21 20 19 21 21 20 18 19 4 4 Computer and Mathematical 23 21 21 15 23 23 24 22 6 8 Personal Care and Service 18 22 23 23 9 22 3 6 3 3 Extraction 20 23 16 22 20 21 23 23 9 5 Food Preparation and Serving 24 24 24 24 24 24 22 24 1 2 Military 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 2 1 PANEL B: WOMEN Ages 50+ Ages 50–59 Ages 60–69 Ages 70+ Under Age 40 Occupation 2004 2019 2004 2019 2004 2019 2004 2019 2004 2019 Office and Administrative Support 6 1 8 6 3 1 5 1 17 20 Building/Grounds Maintenance 4 2 9 3 1 3 1 8 23 24 Financial Operations 12 3 11 2 13 2 16 10 18 25 Production 3 4 5 5 2 4 7 12 24 21 Extraction 24 5 19 1 24 15 24 20 3 15 Management Occupations 2 6 2 4 7 8 9 11 25 23 Legal 16 7 10 7 20 7 19 6 12 22 Education, Training, and Library 1 8 1 13 4 6 8 4 22 19 Community and Social Service 5 9 3 16 6 9 12 3 20 18 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 7 10 6 14 11 5 17 16 21 17 Transportation and Material Moving 9 11 12 8 5 14 13 14 15 14 continued
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Census Bureau online data table tool (Beta version)
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SOURCE: Data from 2004 and 2019 March Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement data files calculated by U.S. Census Bureau online data table tool (Beta version)
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. The underestimation of labor force participation is particularly acute for the youngest and oldest workers in the labor market, who are more likely to work fewer than 15 hours per week and to engage in informal work arrangements (Abraham et al., 2021)
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The gender gap in labor force participation is larger at ages 70 and over than at younger ages, though this older age group also 5 The change in the demographic composition of the older workforce is presented for the period 2004–2019. Though data were available for 2020, they were not used for these analyses in order to exclude the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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As members of the foreign-born population and their native-born children aged, they began to constitute a larger share of the older labor force, changing and diversifying the racial-ethnic composition6 of that population (Figure 2-9, Panel C)
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Though the share of workers in their 50s with a college degree increased slightly, from 34.8 to 38.0 percent, this change was small relative to the change among older age groups. In part, this reflects a slowdown of the dramatic expansion of college education in the post-war period; however, it also reflects the increasingly important role that education plays in both health and changes in labor force participation at older ages.
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In 2004, labor force participation rates of foreign-born women were far below those of native-born women at every age. Between 2004 8 Labor force participation is the sum of employment and unemployment rates, both of which are likely to differ by nativity, race-ethnicity, and educational attainment.
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, the absolute change in the labor force participation rate between 2004 and 2019 (middle panels) , and the percent change in the labor force participation rate over this period (i.e., the absolute change in the labor force participation rate divided by the 2004 labor force participation rate)
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Unlike non-Hispanic Black men, non-Hispanic Black women were as likely as non-Hispanic White women to be in the labor force between the ages of 25 and 49. However, as was true among non-Hispanic Black men, the labor force participation rates of non-Hispanic Black women ages 50–65 were lower than those of non-Hispanic White women, though this difference was much smaller than the one that occurred among men.
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, the change in the labor force participation rate between 2004 and 2019 (middle panels) , and the percent change in the labor force participation rate over this period (bottom panels)
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suggests that the education gap in labor force participation is particularly large for Black women. Among women with a high school degree or less, Black women who are under age 60 are less likely than White women of the same age to be in the labor force, but are more likely to be in the labor force at older ages -- in part because earlier cohorts of these Black women had higher labor force participation rates at younger ages than did similarly educated White women.
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, the change in the labor force participation rate between 2004 and 2019 (middle panels) , and the percent change in the labor force participation rate over this period (bottom panels)
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The smaller difference between the change in the labor force participation rate and the employment rate at older ages suggests that older workers were more likely to respond to the loss of employment by leaving the labor force, and this was particularly true of older women. The health and mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic did not affect the U.S.
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A larger decrease in the employment rate than the labor force participation rate suggests that an increase in the unemployment rate occurred. SOURCE: Data from 2020 and 2021 January Current Population Survey monthly data files calculated by U.S.
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However, in contrast to men, among older women there were no clear patterns in racial-ethnic differences in the changes in employment and labor force participation rates. TRENDS IN HEALTH AND DISABILITY Health is an important predictor of remaining in the labor market at older ages (Jason et al., 2017; Zajacova et al., 2014; Cahill et al., 2006)
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The middle panels show the absolute change in the labor force participation rate (left panel) and employment rate (right panel)
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From page 46... ...
The middle panels show the absolute change in the labor force participation rate (left panel) and employment rate (right panel)
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From page 47... ...
Moreover, the declining health among younger adults could presage future declines in labor force participation at older ages as these younger cohorts age and approach retirement. As noted above, the United States has long experienced a large education-based gap in health and mortality that favors those with more education, particularly those with a college degree.
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First, in 2019, among men ages 60–64 and women ages 55–64 who have a high school degree, the percent in fair or poor health is lower than among younger men and women, but rises again with age among those ages 65 and over. This suggests that many of these adults who are in fair or poor health are leaving the labor force early, perhaps when the men reach eligibility for partial Social Security benefits at age 62.
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These differences suggest that changes in health are made manifest, in part, through changes in labor force participation. The rising rates of younger workers in fair or poor health could portend lower labor force participation among these younger cohorts as they reach conventional retirement ages.
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Although those in their 50s are overrepresented within management occupations, as well as within blue-collar occupations such as production, maintenance, repair, and installation occupations, these occupations are less common among those who remain in the labor force in their 60s and older ages. Though health has improved among older adults, declines in overall health and increases in work-limiting disabilities among younger workers are worrying and could presage comparative declines in labor force participation as these cohorts enter retirement ages or an increase in work-limiting disabilities that will require greater workplace accommodations.
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In contrast, those born before 1946 generally entered adulthood with fewer opportunities available to them, and despite also benefiting from the passage of the Civil Rights Act, the effects of these early disadvantages are likely to have cumulated over the life course, affecting retirement outcomes many decades later. The recent cohort-based increases in morbidity and mortality among younger adults may portend future declines in labor force participation among these cohorts as they age.
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SOURCE: Data from 2004 American Community Survey Public-Use Microdata file calculated by U.S. Census Bureau online data table tool (Beta version)
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Census Bureau online data table tool (Beta version)
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Census Bureau online data table tool (Beta version)
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Census Bureau online data table tool (Beta version)
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Then, the 25 labor force participation rates for each five-year age group and five-year birth cohort group were averaged together with equal weight. All figures include averages only when all birth cohorts had reached the oldest age in the age range.
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However, once such an individual turns age 65, she or he would be eligible for Medicare regardless of health status; therefore, this individual may no longer be counted as having a work disability unless she or he also met one of the other criteria, because enrollment in Medicare at ages 65 and over is no longer linked to health status. This leads to a discontinuity in the age distribution at age 65 in the work disability measure when applied to the adult population; however, because eligibility requirements for enrolling in Medicare disability coverage generally require exiting the labor force, this discontinuity is less evident when the population is restricted to those in the labor force as it is within this chapter.
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Further, we consider the proximal forces that shape older adults' work and retirement pathways, which include the preferences, expectations, and experienced constraints regarding their workforce participation. We review research findings regarding these forces, especially on the effects of their various empirical referents and variables.
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. Indeed, many retirees now stay in the labor force and maintain certain levels of work engagement after starting to receive Social Security benefits and (or)
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. By age 62, when eligible for partial Social Security benefits, 35.9 percent of this cohort was retired; this share rises to 56.6 percent at age 65, the eligibility age for Medicare and full Social Security benefits, and increases to 80.8 percent for those age 72.
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As we will discuss in more detail later in this chapter, we consider older workers' preferences, expectations, and experienced constraints to be proximal forces that shape their workforce participation in later life.
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TABLE 3-1 Theoretical Approaches Theoretical Approaches Key References Rational choice theory Lazear, 1986; Hanoch and Honig, 1983; Blinder and Weiss, 1976 Theory of planned behavior Ajzen, 1991 Role theory Barnes-Farrell, 2003; Ashforth, 2001 The life course perspective Elder and Johnson, 2003; Elder, 1995 Meaningful life King and Hicks, 2021 Socioemotional selectivity theory Carstensen et al., 1999; Carstensen, 1991
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From page 64... ...
Accordingly, utility-maximizing models of labor supply, human capital investment, consumption, and retirement are useful in predicting and explaining people's workforce exit pathways (Lazear, 1986; Hanoch and Honig, 1983; Blinder and Weiss, 1976)
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From page 65... ...
. The Life Course Perspective The life course perspective is another theory often used to understand workforce exit decisions (Gee et al., 2019; Moen, 2016a, b; Shanahan et al., 2016; Elder and Johnson, 2003; Elder, 1995)
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From page 66... ...
However, some, including role theory, rational choice theory, and the life course perspective in particular, also emphasize the constraints limiting expectations and choices. THE PROXIMAL FORCES THAT SHAPE THE WORK AND RETIREMENT PATHWAYS Drawing from the theoretical mechanisms reviewed above, we consider older workers' preferences, expectations, and experienced constraints to be proximal forces that shape their workforce participation in later life.
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From page 67... ...
In the past, given their more variable attachments to the labor force, women have tended to tailor their work exits around those of their husbands, but this is changing as women begin to remain in the workforce throughout the life course, even when their children are young (Moen et al., 2006)
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