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10 Electricity as a Vehicle Fuel
Pages 186-202

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From page 186...
... In this chapter the focus is on the consequential effects of PEV charging for power grid emissions. There are also other consequential effects of electric vehicle (EV)
From page 187...
... in ALCA (top) , a portion of power grid emissions are assigned to PEV load (usually proportional to PEV charging load)
From page 188...
... 1 It is worth noting that when decisions are coupled, such as comparing the adoption of PEV with rooftop solar to adoption of a gasoline vehicle and no solar, the difference in consequential emissions between the two scenarios involves both the effects of adding rooftop solar and the effects of replacing gasoline demand with electricity demand.
From page 189...
... (2021) CV, BEV National Life cycle Consequential NOTE: Vehicle types: BEV = battery electric vehicle; CV= commercial vehicle; HEV = hybrid electric vehicle; ICEV= internal combustion engine vehicle; ICV = internal combustion vehicle; PHEV = plug-in-hybrid-electric vehicle.
From page 190...
... . If fossil generation assets were to be replaced by dispatchable low-carbon energy sources, the addition of PEV charging demand would not create additional fossil fuel emissions from the electricity system.
From page 191...
... , which covers the Midwest region2 in which marginal generation is estimated to be primarily from coal plants during low demand hours but with more from gas plants at high demand hours, with implications for emissions. The main advantage of regression-based approaches is that they are based on real data about how the power system has operated.
From page 192...
... The main limitation is that it is difficult for a model to capture all of the factors that might affect grid operations in practice, and therefore there is generally some expected deviation between what an idealized model predicts and what would happen in practice. In particular, models that make more simplifying assumptions, such as using simple dispatch ordering without constraints on transmission or generation, can typically model larger systems at some expense of fidelity, while models that include detailed operational constraints typically limit scope to a particular region and may therefore miss effects of PEV load on marginal trade with other regions.
From page 193...
... If not already publicly available, RTOs and ISOs can provide realtime marginal data, which can potentially be combined with data on EV charging patterns to estimate consequential emissions of EV charging.
From page 194...
... TABLE 10-2 Comparison of Approaches to Estimate Grid Emissions from PEV Charging Approach Advantage Disadvantage ALCA Average Grid Emissions Easy to find data and implement Does not answer the question of how emissions will change if a technology or policy is adopted CLCA Regression-Based Based on real-world data of how changes Limited to modeling small changes in load Marginal Emissions in load have affected power sector (marginal emissions only) ; examines only past emissions in the past grid behavior; does not predict how future technology or policy will affect a future power grid CLCA Simulation-Based Can model effects of large load changes; Difficult to model all factors that affect power Marginal or Non-marginal can model future power grid scenarios grid operations in practice so idealized model Emissions predictions may differ from practice CLCA Marginal Emission Easy to find data and implement Accuracy for estimating marginal emissions can Proxies vary CLCA Real-Time Marginal Captures actual dispatch implications of Not known in advance; does not provide a basis Emissions from RTOs and ISOs changes in load real time for modeling future scenarios; addresses only marginal changes; may not account for marginal trade across RTOs and ISOs NOTES: ALCA = attributional life-cycle assessment; CLCA = consequential life-cycle assessment; ISOs = independent system operators; RTOs = regional transmission operators.
From page 195...
... , all approaches to estimating the power grid emissions consequences of PEV charging involve some degree of uncertainty. Furthermore, because the power grid will change over time in ways that cannot be fully predicted, including during the life of a vehicle, consequential emissions have important dynamic sources of uncertainty.
From page 196...
... The California LCFS policy provides incentives and alternative crediting for smart charging timed to coincide with low-emission grid composition, though low emission average composition does not necessarily imply low marginal emissions. Changes in power grid emissions caused by PEV charging could be low if PEV charging coincides with times when renewables would otherwise be curtailed.
From page 197...
... . FIGURE 10-7 Illustration of how the relative life-cycle GHG emissions of a particular PEV compare with a gasoline vehicle can depend on many factors, including vehicle design, and regional factors such as the power grid, driving conditions, and climate.
From page 198...
... NOTES: CEDM = Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making at Carnegie Mellon University; U.S. Grid Regions: FRCC = Florida Reliability Coordinating Council, Inc.; MRO = Midwest Reliability Organization; NPCC = Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc.; RFC = Reliability First Corporation; SERC = SERC Reliability Corporation; SPP = Southwest Power Pool; TRE = Texas Reliability Entity; WECC = Western Electricity Coordinating Council.
From page 199...
... Studies find that each time an EV is sold, permitted fleet GHG emissions increase by up to 60 tons, depending on the year and vehicle type (Jenn et al., 2016) , and policies like California's zero emission vehicle mandate result in increased emissions due to these fleet standards (Jenn et al., 2019)
From page 200...
... 2010. Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles.
From page 201...
... 2021. Private versus shared, automated electric vehicles for US personal mobility: Energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, grid integration, and cost impacts.
From page 202...
... 2016. Consequential life cycle air emissions externalities for plug in electric vehicles in the PJM interconnection.


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