Wildland Fires: Toward Improved Understanding and Forecasting of Air Quality Impacts Proceedings of a Workshop (2022) / Chapter Skim
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Where Are We Now?
Where Are We Now?
Pages 9-24
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From page 9... ...
Depending on weather conditions, this smoke could reach communities -- 60 million homes in the United States were within 1 km of a wildland fire between 1992 and 2015, and 13 million people who are also socially vulnerable live in areas of extreme fire risk (Davies et al., 2018; Mietkiewicz et al., 2020) , raising equity concerns.
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, discussed the structure of smoke plumes that come out of wildland fires and considerations when incorporating these dynamics into atmospheric models and estimating smoke transport. Fire plumes vary in their complexity, which can be modeled conceptually.
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These include spatial and temporal variation in the balance between wind and heat that gives the plume buoyancy; vertical and horizontal wind shear effects on mixing; the influence of canopy structure on turbulence and vertical movement of smoke; burning area geometry and scale; and interactions among fires occurring close to one another, which may draw smoke into different plumes or create a single plume. Another consideration is whether to use a single versus multiple convective cores in the model, which has implications for how to treat vertical distribution and subsequent horizontal transport and mixing of the plume.
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Smoke and air quality models estimate fire emissions using different methods to forecast smoke transport; however, all models also use fire detection data obtained from satellites. The HRRR-Smoke model uses fire radiative power (FRP)
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data collected at 5-minute intervals by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite with emissions and injection height predictions in the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) for the Williams Flats Fire in August 2019 (Figure 3)
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The left panel illustrates radiative power and aerosol optical depth data obtained by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, and the right panel shows that information combined with emissions and injection height predictions in the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry. SOURCE: (left)
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Baker suggested FIGURE 4. Key components of wildland fires for which better understanding is needed to improve air quality modeling.
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The modeling of vertical distribution and vertical mixing of smoke plumes was raised by all of the panelists as a major challenge, which has direct implications for human health given that pollutants near the Earth's surface can be inhaled. Smoke plumes are extremely complex, and current models rely on traditional meteorological and weather forecast models for vertical mixing, which do not adequately capture variation in the altitude at which the plume is released, the buoyancy, effects of smoldering versus flaming fires, and other factors, Ahmadov explained.
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" There are many difficulties and major uncertainties associated with smoke production, chemistry, and exposure. Biomass burning that takes place during fires is highly complex and influenced by many factors including fuel characteristics, temperature, humidity, wind, time of day, time of year, and other chemical and physical factors, which interact in nonlinear ways that are difficult to model.
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. Currently, many air quality forecasting models use PM emission factors from prescribed fires, resulting in values that are lower than what is observed for wildfires.
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. At the same time, global-scale models tied to satellite and long-term observations can be useful for identifying problems but do not yet provide solutions for modeling smoke plumes.
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Reid also suggested that there is a need for more research on mental health related to smoke plumes. Most mental health studies to date have focused on people who have been evacuated, or lost loved ones or property.
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, discussed how the health community uses atmospheric science information, and the format and usability of available data. Because producing atmospheric chemistry information is generally resource intensive, the health community relies on academic partners and federal agencies working in atmospheric chemistry fields to produce the data products that can then be used to quantify exposure and link to health data.
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Finally, he described a need for atmospheric science information and data products to support comparative assessments of smoke exposure for prescribed burns versus wildfires. Strengthening Epidemiological Research through Greater Interdisciplinary Collaboration Ana Rappold, EPA, discussed challenges to using air quality ground monitoring data to define exposure in health effects research, as well as opportunities to build on earlier approaches and data to improve evaluation of the public health burden from wildfire.
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Examples for how this has been done include the NASA Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team, the American Geophysical Union GeoHealth Section, and the International Association of Wildland Fire's International Smoke Symposium. Panelists also pointed out that funding agencies have an opportunity to help to organize and integrate these communities by funding research that marries health effects and atmospheric sciences.
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