Origins, Worlds, and Life A Decadal Strategy for Planetary Science and Astrobiology 2023-2032 (2022) / Chapter Skim
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C Technical Risk and Cost Evaluation of Priority Missions BACKGROUND The survey's statement of task (see Preface and Appendix A) calls for "identifying, recommending, and ranking the highest priority research activities" in planetary science, astrobiology, and planetary defense.
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found that the details "used to support the CATE analysis are not necessarily indicative of how a mission will ultimately be implemented" (NASEM 2015, p.
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FORMULATION AND IDENTIFICATION OF MISSIONS FOR TRACE NASA prepared for the planetary science and astrobiology decadal survey via a twofold approach. First, the agency commissioned science definition teams (SDT)
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TABLE C.2 Mission Concepts Considered by the Decadal Survey for Technical Risk and Cost Evaluation Name Origin Disposition Additional Information Mercury Lander PMCS Selected for TRACE Ernst et al 2020 and Appendix C Venus Flagship PMCS Selected for TRACE Gilmore et al 2020 and Appendix C Venera D SDT Not selected for TRACE Venera-D 2019 and Appendix D VISAN: Venus in situ seismic and PV Not selected for study or Appendix E atmospheric network TRACE VSCA: Venus sub-cloud aerobot PV Not selected for study or Appendix E TRACE VLP: Venus life potential PV Not selected for study or Appendix E TRACE VIDEO: Venus investigation of PV Not selected for study or Appendix E dynamics from an equatorial orbit TRACE ADVENTS: assessment and PV Selected for study. Not O'Rourke et al.
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originating team, and Appendix C Enceladus Multiple Flyby Prior study Selected for TRACE Davila et al. 2021 and documentation Appendix C made available to survey Titan Orbiter and Probe Prior study Version without the sea Hayes et al.
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TRACE team who, in turn, incorporated this feedback into revised technical, cost and schedule risk evaluations. FIGURE C.1 Schematic illustration of the flow of the Aerospace Corporation's technical risk and cost evaluation (TRACE)
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evaluated to best enable the prioritization of a balanced program within a defined future budget scenarios. The use of multiple methods -- e.g., analogies and standard cost models -- ensures that no one model or database biases the estimate.
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that the TRACE team use the 70th percentile value in its schedule estimate -- i.e., there is a 70 percent probability that the schedule will be shorter than indicated and a 30 percent probability that it will be longer. Cost Evaluation The primary goal of the TRACE cost evaluation is to provide independent estimates (in FY 2025 dollars)
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FIGURE C.2 Schematic illustration of the TRACE cost process. The top row represents the basic elements of the cost-evaluation process.
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• Mars Life Explorer (Box C.8) ; • Ceres Sample Return (Box C.9)
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SUMMARY TRACE evaluations are a forward-looking technical readiness and budget (cost and schedule) evaluation process typically used to assess Pre-Phase A mission concepts.
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Final Report (2019) , Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group, Pasadena, California.
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Robinson et al 2020, Intrepid Planetary Mission Concept Study Report, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California. Available at https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/documents.
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