The Importance of Chemical Research to the U.S. Economy (2022) / Chapter Skim
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2 Understanding the Economic Impacts of Chemistry
2 Understanding the Economic Impacts of Chemistry
Pages 29-60
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From page 29... ...
chemical economy because it provides monumental changes as well as incremental steps. Incremental advances in the chemi cal economy have a much larger influence on the overall economy because of the spillover of chemical knowledge, products, and processes.
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As the committee discussed the size and impact of chemical research on the chemical economy, it took a very broad approach to defining what is included in the chemical economy. As noted in Chapter 1, the chemical economy includes all parts of any value chain that rely on chemical knowledge and transformation processes for advancement and growth.
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Scaling up chemical production, like in the case of sulfuric acid or fertilizers, was a fruitful collaboration between chemical researchers and engineers (Arora and Gambardella, 2010)
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economy. This section highlights the direct economic impacts of the chemical economy by showing the value and employment added by the chemical sector.
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Based on the definition of the chemical economy established by this report, pharmaceuticals would be included, and their impacts will be addressed throughout the report. 2.2.1.1 Monetary Impact of the Chemical Economy It is first important to look at the direct value added and sales from the chemical economy, and the chemical economy's impact on the overall economy.
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As mentioned previously, the committee defined the chemical economy to include all products and parts of a value chain that rely on chemical knowledge, meaning that pharmaceuticals, but not biopharmaceuticals (see Section 1.2.1 for further explanation) , should be included in any analysis of the chemical economy.
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We touched on the indirect impacts in relation to economic output and employment that are sup ported by, but not directly within, the chemical economy. Some of the industries that are dependent on the spillover of knowledge, products, and processes from the chemical economy include stra tegically important industries such as semiconductors, computers, aerospace, medical equipment, and electrical equipment, in addition to other economically significant industries such as construc tion, food agriculture, and vehicles (ACC, 2021)
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From page 36... ...
In looking at chemistry-related patents, Vertex noted that a spillover of knowledge from chemical patents occurs when these patents are cited by patents from other areas such as human necessities, transport, materials, and new technology. Vertex data further suggest that 8.5% of patents rely on chemical research, as measured by citations, found within patents, to scientific publications
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To better understand the indirect impacts related to the spillover of chemical knowledge into other areas of R&D, Vertex analyzed the value of all patents that use chemical knowledge. To TABLE 2-1 Number of Chemistry and Nonchemistry Patents That Cite Chemistry Research from Scientific Publications in Chemistry-Related Journals Chemistry Patents Patent Cites Chemical Research Yes No Totals Yes 408,642 (8.5%)
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60 40 20 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Patent Issue Year Share of patents citing non-chemical NPL Share of patents citing chemical NPL FIGURE 2-8 Share of patents that cite chemistry NPL and nonchemistry NPL. NOTE: Patents for this figure were selected conditional on having cited any NPL, such that the shares of patents citing chemical and non chemical patents add up to 100%.
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(a) Average KPSS value of patents that cite chemistry NPL in each year, and the average KPSS value for patents that cite nonchemistry NPL.
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To better address the Statement of Task, the committee sought to understand the connection between fundamental chemical research and the chemical economy. It is important to note that there are substantial challenges associated with this task.
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Importantly, they noted that "data limitations inhibit a comprehensive analysis." Specifically, they noted data limitations related to "patent value estimation, wide-spread availability of licensing terms data, and wide-spread availability of government grant data." To lessen the gaps, and assist future economic evaluations, the Vertex report noted several possible changes that could make an analysis more comprehensive. The first is the continued support of social science and business research by government and philanthropic organizations, especially in the pursuit of new and improved patent valuation methods.
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Patent and Trade Office were to "strengthen data collection and publication," this would help any analyses on intellectual property and its connection to the economy. 2.3.2 Future Analyses to Help Understand the Impact of Chemical Research on the Economy To continue building a full picture of how chemical research impacts the chemical economy, there are a number of other areas and analyses that could help the community gain a quantitative assessment of this relationship.
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Directed evolution of enzymes for biocatalysis is built on a foundation of chemical knowledge from biophysical chemists and analytical chemists working together to understand the structural interactions and reaction mechanisms of different enzymes. The first protein structures of myoglobin and hemoglobin were published in 1958 and 1960, respectively, with a subsequent Nobel Prize in Chemistry awarded in
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The first patents for semiconductor devices appeared in the early 1900s (Ward, 2014) , and the 1956 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to William Shockley, John Bardeen, and Walter Brattain for their research creating the first semiconductor-based transistor (Nobel Prize Outreach, 2022d)
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. Similar to the chemical industry as a whole, the semiconductor industry has a wide range of indirect economic impacts due to the use of semiconductors in such a wide variety of technologies.
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. Much of the reason for this heavy investment in steroid chemistry was related to the discovery that a native yam plant, Dioscorea mexicana, contained a substantial amount of the natural product diosgenin.
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Progesterone, while still effective, cannot be taken as an oral medication. The flood of research in natural products synthesis and steroid hormone development was a critical scientific endeavor that led to the final formulation of oral contraceptives and led to a simpler synthesis of many other important compounds, including progesterone, cortisone, and estrogen.
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Additionally, fundamental chemical research from the late 1980s onward continues to be pivotal for the discovery of oral medications that have shown efficacy in clinical trials for COVID-19, including remdesivir (Gottlieb et al., 2022) , molnupiravir (Bernal et al., 2022)
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These factors must be considered as a part of the same ecosystem and kept in mind in creating policies for improving the chemical economy. 2.4.1 Comparative Global Research Output in Chemistry To analyze global competitiveness, we can compare research outputs of different countries in the form of publications, economic outputs, and several other points of analysis.
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The first is that the chemical industry and its related chemical research and publication output has stagnated. Another possibility is that chemistry research in the United States has become a science that is now used to support and inform other topic areas such as the life sciences, and publications in these areas, while they might be based on chemical discovery, are not counted toward chemistry publications.
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Additionally, there are many caveats associated with patent data that were laid out in detail earlier in the chapter. 2.4.2 Comparative Global Economic Output We can further consider the value added of chemicals and chemical products by industry in order to assess the competitiveness of the chemical economy.
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52 THE IMPORTANCE OF CHEMICAL RESEARCH TO THE U.S. ECONOMY United States China 3 3 2.5 2.5 2 2 1.5 1.5 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 All S&E Chemistry World All S&E Chemistry World Germany United Kingdom 3 3 2.5 2.5 2 2 1.5 1.5 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 All S&E Chemistry World All S&E Chemistry World India South Korea 3 3 2.5 2.5 2 2 1.5 1.5 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 All S&E Chemistry World All S&E Chemistry World FIGURE 2-16 Fractional count of top 1% cited S&E articles compared to the world average.
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Importantly, the U.S. share in the international chemical economy held steady and even saw a slight increase between 2010 and 2018, indicating that, despite China's continual increase, the United States was also experiencing growth.
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Competitiveness in the Chemical Economy Despite continued expansion of the global chemical industry between 2000 and 2010, no new chemi cal plants were planned for the United States during this time period (NASEM, 2016) , and North America saw a reduction in base chemical capacity growth through the early 2000s (Eramo, 2014)
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12 Air Liquide 23,089 France 13 PetroChina 21,769 China 14 DuPont 20,397 U.S. 15 Hengli Petrochemical 17,265 China 16 Sumitomo Chemical 15,822 Japan 17 Toray Industries 15,196 Japan 18 Shin-Etsu Chemical 14,019 Japan 19 Evonik Industries 13,919 Germany 20 Reliance Industries 13,600 India 21 Covestro 12,216 Germany 22 Shell Chemicals 11,721 Netherlands 23 Yara 11,591 Norway 24 Braskem 11,348 Brazil 25 Mitsui Chemicals 11,348 Japan 26 Syngenta 11,208 Switzerland 27 Bayer 11,204 Germany 28 Solvay 11,084 Belgium 29 Wanhua Chemical 10,636 China 30 Indorama 10,589 Thailand 31 Lotte Chemical 10,354 South Korea 32 Johnson Matthey 9,951 UK 33 Umicore 9,738 Belgium 34 Asahi Kasei 9,283 Japan 35 DSM 9,249 Netherlands 36 Arkema 8,996 France 37 Air Products 8,856 U.S.
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chemical economy is part of a complex ecosystem that is heavily reliant on other countries for collaboration, innovation, and workforce needs. The Science and Engineering Indicators produced by NSF's National Science Board noted that in 2017, 30% of workers in S&E occupations were foreign-born.
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Nobel Prize winners from 1901 to 2021. SOURCE: Farago and Waslin, 2021.
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chemical economy, the committee highlighted several conclusions. Conclusion 2-1: Chemical research has an outsized economic value based on the spillover of chemical knowledge and products into other areas and the fact that chemical patents, as well as patents that rely on chemical knowledge, have a higher average value than other patents.
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Continuing to attract and retain diverse talent in the chemical sciences, both internationally and domestically, is critically important to a thriving chemical economy.
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