Greenhouse Gas Emissions Information for Decision Making A Framework Going Forward (2022) / Chapter Skim
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2 Current Approaches for Quantifying Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions
2 Current Approaches for Quantifying Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Pages 25-52
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From page 25... ...
By quantifying GHG sources and sinks, GHG inventories can inform emission baselines or spatial distributions, track emission changes over time, and assess emission mitigation efforts for a specific entity over a period of time (Schaltegger and Csutora, 2012)
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assumes that emission factors are constant and representative for a given activity for the duration of consideration. Specifically, activity-based approaches may fail to describe complex FIGURE 2-1 Activity-based approaches multiply activity data (representative indicators or drivers of greenhouse gas [GHG]
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. Although this approach is often thought of as incorporating "upstream" FIGURE 2-2 Classification of Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions in production and consumption greenhouse gas emission inventories.
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The Statement of Task for this report focuses on the development of an evaluation framework for GHG information at the global/national scale, but here we provide a more complete general description across the scales currently considered in GHG emissions information efforts to provide context and useful case study examples. UNFCCC GHG Inventories The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
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. According to the UNFCCC, the GST "considers the social and economic consequences of response measures and efforts to address loss and damage," which pertains to climate change impacts disproportionately experienced by developing coun tries as the result of greenhouse gas (GHG)
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. NOTES: EIA, Energy Information Administration; UNSD, United Nations Statistics Division; FFDAS, Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System; EDGAR, Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research; CDIAC, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; UNFCCC, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; CAIT, Climate Analysis Indicators Tool; CEDS, Community Emissions Data System; GCP, Global Carbon Project; PRIMAP-hist, Potsdam Real-time Integrated Model for probabilistic Assessment of emissions Paths; CM, Carbon Monitor; GridFED, Gridded Fossil Emissions Dataset; GRACED, Global Gridded Daily CO2 Emissions Dataset; ODIAC, Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2.
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This is a critical element in understanding the content of global/national inventories and in considering what independent information might be considered to evaluate and validate outcomes from the many global/national GHG inventories that use these source data. Primary inventories have been compiled globally that may combine two or more of the energy datasets to generate estimates of GHG emissions.
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(yes/no) Reference Webpage PRIMARY ENERGY DATASETS International Energy, CO2, 190 countries Country, annual 1971–2020 Yes No Yes IEA, 2021a,b https://www.iea.org/ Energy Agency CH4 1960–2020 data-and-statistics/data(IEA)
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LUCF) Fossil Fuel Data CO2 137 coun- 0.1°×0.1°, monthly 1997-2015 No No No Asefi-Naja- https://ffdas.rc.nau.edu/ Assimilation Sys- tries, 3 fabady et al., Data.html tem (FFDAS)
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2021 co.uk/co2-emissions gridded/ TERTIARY EMISSIONS Carbon Monitor CO2 6 countries, Country and re- 2019–2022 Yes Yes No Liu et al., https://carbonmonitor. EU+UK, gion, 0.1°×0.1°, 2020a org/ ROW daily Global Gridded CO2 6 countries, 0.1°×0.1°, daily 2019–2020 Yes Yes Dou et al., Daily CO2 Emis- EU+UK, 2022 sions Dataset ROW (GRACED)
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It is not exhaustive of all global GHG inventories, particularly those under development, and contains a mixture of gridded and non-gridded inventories. CO2, carbon dioxide; CH4, methane; N2O, nitrous oxide; CO, carbon monoxide; NMVOC, non-methane volatile organic compound; SO2, sulfur dioxide; F-gases, fluorinated gases; HFCs, hydrofluorocarbons; PFCs, perfluorochemicals; SF6, sulfur hexafluoride; NF3, nitrogen trifluoride; BC, black carbon; OC, organic carbon; NO2, nitrogen dioxide; NOx, nitrogen oxides; PM, particulate matter; NH3, ammonia; FFCO2, fossil fuel CO2; CO2-LULUCF, CO2 from land use, land-use change, and forestry; LULUCF, land use, land-use change, and forestry; AFOLU, agriculture, forestry, and other land use; T, current year; EU, European Union; UK, United Kingdom, ROW, rest of world; OECD, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
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to national domains. They are relevant at the global scale as they provide some GHG inventory examples with features and innovations that are worth considering when evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of the global/ national GHG inventories.
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Due to voluntary or mandatory requirements, companies produce GHG inventories to assess the efficacy of corporate emissions mitigation strategies. Corporate GHG inventories often also
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For example, LCA may be used under EU Taxonomy to screen natural gas-powered generation (European Commission, 2022) or to track BOX 2-4 The Greenhouse Gas Protocol Agricultural Guidance In 2014, the first global guidance to measure greenhouse gas (GHG)
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Note that many fluorinated gases have no significant natural sources; as a result, atmospheric measurements can largely be directly interpreted as an anthropogenic release for those gases. Mass Balance Approach The mass balance approach is used to quantify GHG emissions at urban to regional scales.
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Isotopic analysis utilizes radiocarbon (14C) measurements of atmospheric CO2 to distinguish fossil fuel emissions (which do not contain radiocarbon atoms)
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to infer greenhouse gas emissions (purple)
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Often the method is employed assuming the spatial distribution of the emissions from various sources is correct in the prior estimate so that biases in the prior model are carried through to the posterior estimate. Adding other tracers to the inversion or using them to isolate a particular sector before inversion, for example by using radiocarbon measurements to isolate fossil fuel CO2 (Basu et al., 2020; Graven et al., 2018)
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. The data are available from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG)
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. Next generation satellites including GOSAT-GW (Greenhouse gases and Water cycle)
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This is the only atmospheric-based estimate of national fossil fuel CO2 emissions available to date, even though fossil fuel CO2 emissions are responsible for the majority of total GHG emissions. It relied on both CO2 and the radiocarbon in CO2 (14C)
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(2016) used in situ measurements of methane in an inversion framework for Switzerland, finding good agreement with the total national emissions of the Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory, but some differences in the spatial distribution in their results relative to the national inventory.
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For example, combining atmospheric measurements (e.g., aircrafts or drones) with novel continuous measurement technologies, especially for methane emissions detection, could help to establish the frequency and duration of emission events at a facility or larger basin level (e.g., Allen et al., 2022; Chen et al., 2022b; Wang et al., 2022b)
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-- represent another potential hybrid GHG estimation approach to model complex, nonlinear, and nonparametric relationships between data to achieve potentially more complete and new GHG emissions information. ML algorithms and ML-powered models can take a series of data inputs to train a model to uncover statistical patterns, making predictions on new, "unseen" data (Huntingford et al., 2019; Milojevic-Dupont and Creutzig, 2021)
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Current Status and Uncertainties of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimates Accuracy and uncertainty in GHG emissions estimates vary by type of emission-producing activity, spatial and temporal scale, GHG considered, and the technique used. In addition to the absolute uncertainty, uncertainty associated with a change in emissions over time is also important, particularly for emission reduction targets that are based on trends.
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. Other evidence of underestimated methane emissions from fossil fuel sources comes from atmospheric-based studies showing strong natural gas emissions in urban areas (Saboya et al., 2022; Sargent et al., 2021)
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. Uncertainties in regional fluorinated gas emissions from atmospheric based studies can range between ±20 percent to ±80 percent, where both underestimates and overestimates have been found for fluorinated gas emissions from individual countries (Flerlage et al., 2021; Manning, 2011)
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. BOX 2-7 CFC-11: Detection and Resolution of Unexpected Emissions of a Banned Substance Atmospheric measurements of the concentrations of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)
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