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2 Changes in Technology Development and Commercialization
Pages 19-44

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From page 19...
... , artificial intelligence (AI) , synthetic biology, and quantum computing -- to illustrate these changes and to investigate steps that could be taken to bolster the nation's continued technological leadership.
From page 20...
... .  Sharing: The platform is widely employed by multiple users, often at global scale.
From page 21...
... and the fabless design metaphor  Shared design "libraries" (design platform)  Artificial intelligence (e.g., TensorFlow, PyTorch)
From page 22...
... One consequence of this global innovation and production environment is the vital role of supply chains that transcend national borders (White House, 2021)
From page 23...
... As this globalization of STEM talent has progressed, global technology firms have become dependent on an international supply of scientists, engineers, and other types of technically skilled talent. Supply chains now provide not just raw materials but also intellectual content.
From page 24...
... Commercial R&D on autonomous vehicles extends into other domains as well, including AI, robotics, advanced sensing, and digital connectivity. More broadly, this work is helping the United States and other countries build the kinds of innovative, high-technology, and forward-looking economies that will be critical determinants of future national security.
From page 25...
... For the purposes of this report, the committee defines a technology platform as a set of integrated technologies, with an associated institutional and human infrastructure, that serves as an essential foundation for the design, development, production, or use of specific technology applications. These platforms are typically multiuse, multipurpose, and multinational systems with many potential applications, often at a global scale, and usually are developed by private-sector actors focused on commercial applications.
From page 26...
... At a broader level, they are key components of science and technology ecosystems that accelerate scientific and technological advances and make those advances more widely accessible. They have a significant impact on the features, capabilities, vulnerabilities, fabrication, distribution, and use of technologies.
From page 27...
... defense industry. The federal government funded up to half of R&D in the nascent semiconductor industry, with that amount tapering off in the 1960s and 1970s as the commercial market expanded.
From page 28...
... By the 1980s, the U.S. semiconductor industry, centered in Silicon Valley south of San Francisco, was vertically integrated and included chip manufacturing.
From page 29...
... As a result of the globalization of the semiconductor industry, both commercial and military devices have become much more dependent on supply chains that cross national borders. The industry is very complex, a fusion of the public and private sectors with a heterogeneous, mature, and global innovation and manufacturing enterprise.
From page 30...
... , yielding a highly efficient and capable global capacity to design and produce technology products using microelectronics. Not utilizing this global production platform carries significant costs in either capability or financial terms, although an independent domestic supply may help with potential supply chain disruptions.
From page 31...
... AISS seeks to create a novel, automated chip design flow that will allow security mechanisms to scale consistently with the goals of a chip design. The target design flow will provide a means of rapidly evaluating architectural alternatives that best address the required design and security metrics, as well as varying cost models to optimize the economics versus security trade-off.
From page 32...
... AI is an emerging and highly disruptive technology area with an essentially unlimited range of potential applications. To cite just a few examples, it has been applied to speech recognition, wearable health sensors, cybersecurity, scientific discovery, logistics, games such as chess and Go, medical diagnosis, autonomous vehicles, multiobjective optimization, computer tutoring, robotics, and the modeling of AI systems themselves.
From page 33...
... . AI exemplifies the shift today from the historical paradigm of military technology transitioning into the commercial realm, with new commercially developed AI advances often being introduced into the defense regime.7 This pathway complicates attempts to restrict the technology, since commercial development typically spans countries even if a particular project is occurring within a single company.
From page 34...
... AI-enabled technologies also may exacerbate the spread of misinformation through the transmission of false images and information that are indistinguishable from their true counterparts.8 AI has clear national defense–related applications, including autonomous vehicles, facial recognition technology, and maintenance software (GAO, 2022)
From page 35...
... . In the DoD, AI is increasingly being applied to classified information, requiring restrictions on both analyses and the information generated (National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, 2021)
From page 36...
... The United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada are among the global leaders in AI research today, while China is investing large sums of money to attain that status. China's applied technology using AI is already very high-quality, as exemplified by its use of speech and facial recognition in state security operations.
From page 37...
... Five major technologies have enabled the rapid development of the synthetic biology field. These technologies -- gene sequencing, gene editing, gene arrays, gene synthesis, and single-cell technology -- continue to be the foundational tools used to develop new synthetic biology systems.
From page 38...
... While synthetic biology is based on biological systems, it represents a novel approach to studying and reimagining those systems using engineering design principles. The interface between engineering and biology makes synthetic biology interconnected, easily automated, flexible, and cost-effective.
From page 39...
... Policy Considerations Many of the technologies that enabled the growth of the synthetic biology field were developed in the United States. As a result, the United States was an early leader in the field, playing a vital role in preliminary research and applications.
From page 40...
... Furthermore, establishing powerful and effective countermeasures for security threats would deter people from using these technologies for harm. International agreements on standards for design, assembly, data transfer, and data measurement; on regulatory rules; and on the language used could all help advance interdisciplinary and international collaborations that could deliver on the promises of the synthetic biology field.
From page 41...
... CASE STUDY: QUANTUM COMPUTING AND QUANTUM INFORMATION SCIENCE Quantum computing and quantum information and communication technologies represent a future technology area with a very high potential for disruption, including the disruption of existing technologies related to national security. Quantum computers are not the only potential use of quantum control and measurement technologies, even though the field is often discussed using that term.
From page 42...
... Policy Considerations Uses of quantum computers related to military and national security may emerge through either government or private-sector, commercial efforts. Unlike the other technologies highlighted in these case studies, quantum computing is not a platform technology; instead, it represents a more traditional emergent technology with a high potential for disruption of existing national security– related technologies (along with significant commercial applications)
From page 43...
... As in other areas of advanced technology, the continued development of quantum computing and quantum information science will require a collaborative effort among government, academia, and the private sector, which inevitably will include researchers working in multiple countries. A 2016 report from the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC, 2016)
From page 44...
... Once dominant in science and technology and the industries based on them, the United States and its allies are now competing against other countries with strong science and technology enterprises. As a result, increasing numbers of technologies, including those vital to military preparedness and economic growth, are being developed and produced in countries outside the United States, often as part of a broader international commercial sector.


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