Resilience for Compounding and Cascading Events (2022) / Chapter Skim
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2 Approaches to Applied Research Priorities
2 Approaches to Applied Research Priorities
Pages 16-36
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3. Effectively implementing solutions and strategies, and governance for those solutions and strategies.
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, with extensive community input, developed an island-wide plan called ReImagina Puerto Rico, based on the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) National Disaster Recovery Framework and The Rockefeller Foundation's City Resilience Framework.
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3. Effectively implementing solutions and strategies, and governance for those solutions and strategies As part of the process of developing ReImagina Puerto Rico, RPRAC established a set of principles to guide its work.
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Drawing in part on funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) , Jacksonville allocated nearly $10 million to purchase nearly 40 flood-prone homes and restore the land to its natural state, based on the idea that increasing wetland area may help mitigate future storm surge.
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To support addressing these shortcomings, applied research should include research into community stakeholder understanding, socially accepted data for decisions, and defining and building investment options that minimize compounding disasters, which in turn will require applied research in the following areas: • Measuring, understanding, and enhancing baseline infrastructure resilience and readiness by community. For example, research is needed to anticipate and measure vulnerabilities to cascading global events, such as when the combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine created supply chain disruptions that affected oil and gas markets, food supply, and computer chip shortages, ultimately creating food insecurity and increased fuel and power costs in rural communities.
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• How have smaller historic disasters contributed to subsequent events? • How do global mitigating events or cascading events create supply chain disruptions that impact oil and gas, food supply, and computer chip shortages, which ultimately create food insecurity and increase fuel and power costs in rural communities?
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This aging infrastructure has highly variable levels of maintenance and often underperforms in the face of extreme events. 1 Opportunities exist to employ individual mitigation tactics and strategies to address cascading events, such as strengthening existing buildings and infrastructure to withstand increased storm surge due to sea level rise or a tsunami following an earthquake event, although the costs can be significant.
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This extends, for example, to international supply chains, where state-of-the-art economic models, such as the Global Trade Analysis Project, 2 are powerful but not yet capable of adequately and accurately estimating the effects of supply chain bottlenecks and supply delays that can lead to both lost production and inflation (Rose et al., 2022)
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. A new type of incentive uses the concept of "nudges" that take the form of suggestions or positive reinforcement to address long-standing issues such 3 Ironically, a major exception is sea level rise, which is having a disproportionate impact on relatively expensive beachfront property.
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Some minority-owned businesses, small businesses, and microbusinesses 4 may require inducements when they have limited access capital, and the lack of availability of government assistance, in the case of compounding and cascading hazard events because of event severity and duration. Applied Research Questions to Help Develop Solutions and Avoid Unintended Consequences Built Environment • How do we better model the impacts of compounding and cascading events on infrastructure, and how can we increase infrastructure resilience by incorporating these models into engineering and design?
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• What tools can be used to better measure disaster recovery time? • How are underresourced communities that have not fully recovered from previous events able to prepare for or recover from successive events, including not only infrastructure, but also social and emotional damage?
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Recently, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) proposed a "disaster deductible" for its Public Assistance Program, a which is intended to promote mitigation but could potentially reduce funding to states and subsequently to localities.
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. The national emergency management system provides vertical integration among federal, state, and local governments for disaster assistance and funds.
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However, as such exercises tend to focus on emergency response for a single hazard, they may not simulate the combined resilience requirements of single assets, the broader communities, and the systems of services such as health care, water systems, and education, among others. In addition, communities already burdened with patterns of historic disinvestment and abuse may require tailored emergency response and recovery efforts focused on all aspects of community resilience.
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Unfortunately, myriad social, economic, environmental, political, or other conditions often complicate society's choices by making it both difficult to make the "right" decision and impossible to make timely decisions. Leveraging Funds and Creating Incentives Through Financial Instruments Successful investment in climate adaptation and resilience requires long-term planning, institutional capacity, capital investment, and well-designed financial incentives to accelerate voluntary actions.
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For example, when North Carolina was responding to challenges following hurricanes Matthew and Irma, it established a grants and incentives program to aid their communities with applying for and managing federal and state funds. 5 In 2022, Maryland passed legislation establishing a statewide Office of Resilience with a chief resilience officer to coordinate state and local efforts to build resilience to risks identified in the Maryland Hazard Mitigation Plan, and to develop a state resilience strategy including an investment plan to fund the strategy.
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• Dramatically shorten the time it takes to complete a property buyout; at present it can take up to 5 years. Expanding Governance Perspectives and Strategies Local and state governments are facing new challenges regarding how to balance acute hazards and chronic conditions, such as coastal hazard events with sea level rise and wildlife– urban interface fires with drought conditions.
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6 Various research groups are also developing tools to support resilience planning (Olszewski et al., 2021) , including • FEMA's Hazus tool, a geographic information system–based desktop software tool that identifies areas with high risk for natural hazards and estimates physical, economic, and social impacts of earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and tsunamis 7; • the Center of Excellence for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning's Interdependent Networked Community Resilience Modeling Environment (IN CORE)
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? Leveraging Funds and Creating Incentives through Financial Instruments • There is a significant gap between available federal funds and local capacity to apply, manage, and implement multiple funding streams with varying requirements.
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Expanding Governance Perspectives and Strategies • How can the federal and state mindset for acute events and emergency management be shifted to include long-term planning for compounding and cascading events? • Should every state institute chief resilience officers to help coordinate at the local and federal levels?
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• In particular, what knowledge and tools are available or needed to address equitable solutions?
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