Resilience for Compounding and Cascading Events (2022) / Chapter Skim
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1 Resilience for Compounding and Cascading Events
1 Resilience for Compounding and Cascading Events
Pages 3-15
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A cascading hazard refers to a primary event (trigger) , such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, or rapid snowmelt, followed by a chain of consequences that may range from modest (lesser than the original event)
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While humans have the capacity to adapt, that capacity is not unlimited in the face of compounding and cascading events. Human adaptive capacity contributes to resilience, and while there is a proliferation of methods to assess human adaptive capacity, there has been no definitive assessment of the best approach(es)
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. FEMA charged the committee with identifying "applied research topics, information, and expertise that can inform action and collaborative opportunities within the natural hazard mitigation and resilience fields." In 2021, the first committee held two workshops on applied research topics -- Social Capital and Social Connectedness for Resilience, and Motivating Local Climate Action -- and prepared two brief consensus reports that identified and summarized key research topics for the applied research community in the specific areas discussed at the workshop and in open discussions of the Resilient America Roundtable.
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Since its creation following the release of the 2012 report Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative (NRC, 2012) , the Program on Risk, Resilience, and Extreme Events at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, known more generally as Resilient America, has sought to harness the power of science, information, and community experience and knowledge to create a more adaptive and resilient nation.a To achieve this aim, Resilient America engages with the academic, public, and private sectors at national and local levels for the following purposes: ● Increase understanding of complex risks and extreme events in a changing environment, and the exposure of communities, infrastructure, and natural systems to these threats.
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The second is the Resilient America Roundtable, which convenes experts to discuss and catalyze activities that build resilience to extreme events at the community, regional, national, and international levels. Together, these activities seek to promote innovative research to inform strategies for resilience and adaptation; incubate ideas and projects; and conduct education, outreach, and community exchange that advance resilient systems and adaptive capacities.
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, such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, or rapid snowmelt, followed by a chain of other events that may range from modest (lesser than the original event) to significant intensity or magnitude; the combined impacts over time (damage, losses, disruption)
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Climate change, an ongoing disaster, increases the likelihood and intensity of extreme weather events and natural hazards including wildfire, extreme heat, drought, and their natural follow-on events, including flooding, 9
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Moreover, communities may also have unrecognized cumulative risk when considered across the life expectancy of their infrastructure assets. For example, when engaging in water and climate risk management and planning, many risk managers continue to model risk assuming that they can calculate the statistical likelihood of extreme events by looking at past climate records (Churchill, 2022)
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Driven in part by a combination of climate change, population growth in at-risk locations such coastal communities, historic inequities and underinvestment in certain communities, and inadequate disaster preparedness, these compounding and cascading disasters pose an increasing threat to environmental quality, economic activity, public safety, national security, and health. A better understanding of how compounding and cascading disasters interact with and affect critical resources and social systems (see Figure 1-1)
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. The data this network generates could enable researchers to develop and validate informative indicators in addition to models for understanding the disparities in impact and recovery for communities affected by compounding and cascading disasters (Averyt, 2022)
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, which describes codevelopment as taking into account voices from underserved and underrepresented minority communities that have been ignored previously and works directly with people impacted by disasters and redevelopment. That report documented that consultation and inclusion at the community level can help build trust in the engagement relationships that are essential for placebased disaster recovery.
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A bottom-up approach to relentless resilience starts with codesign involving vulnerable community members who face compounding and cascading disasters. The codesign process would examine the ability of legacy programs, existing governance procedures, and available funding streams to enable relentless resilience.
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Indeed, at a time of climate uncertainty, it is no longer acceptable for infrastructure designers to believe that it is sufficient to resist events up to a certain design event. Instead, the goal should be to pick a design event and then design systems, programs, cultures, and mechanisms to reduce suffering and accelerate recovery when those design events are exceeded.
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