Emerging Hazards in Commercial Aviation—Report 1: Initial Assessment of Safety Data and Analysis Processes (2022) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 74-79
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From page 74... ...
74 EMERGING HAZARDS IN COMMERCIAL AVIATION -- REPORT 1 Whereas the CAST/ASIAS collaboration has a valuable role in immediate safety management, particularly in collaboratively developing mitigations for known hazards, it may not be the best forum for application of tools and methods for future-time-frame analyses of hazards that are not yet known (and indeed may not manifest until proposed changes are implemented)
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IDENTIFYING EMERGING TRENDS 75 The MITRE Corporation.
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77 This chapter summarizes proposed changes within the aviation industry through the introduction of new technologies and types of operations, and the potential stressors on the industry, that may create new emerging hazards, as well as strategies for continuously monitoring these and other potential hazards over the course of the study. Specifically, strategic forecasting techniques, horizon scanning and scenario planning, are described as a set of qualitative approaches to broaden the identification of commercial aviation safety issues.
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78 EMERGING HAZARDS IN COMMERCIAL AVIATION -- REPORT 1 that may emerge, and the types of analysis and precursor measures required to manage them; where no specific entity is in place to conduct such analysis, the committee may explore and demonstrate how techniques such as horizon scanning can be applied to examine them. Safety Management of Increasingly Complex Systems Some of these potential emerging hazards relate to the increasing complexity of the overall system of aviation operations, and in particular the softwarebased systems that human operators are expected to employ and monitor.
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EMERGING AVIATION SAFETY HAZARDS AND FUTURE IDENTIFICATION 79 aircraft which have very different speeds, weights, and flight trajectories into the airspace around airports that was designed around the maneuvering capabilities of conventional commercial aircraft. Climate Change A different class of potential emerging hazards is related to climate change and policies to respond to it.
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