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Pages 77-84

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From page 77...
... 77 This chapter summarizes proposed changes within the aviation industry through the introduction of new technologies and types of operations, and the potential stressors on the industry, that may create new emerging hazards, as well as strategies for continuously monitoring these and other potential hazards over the course of the study. Specifically, strategic forecasting techniques, horizon scanning and scenario planning, are described as a set of qualitative approaches to broaden the identification of commercial aviation safety issues.
From page 78...
... 78 EMERGING HAZARDS IN COMMERCIAL AVIATION -- REPORT 1 that may emerge, and the types of analysis and precursor measures required to manage them; where no specific entity is in place to conduct such analysis, the committee may explore and demonstrate how techniques such as horizon scanning can be applied to examine them. Safety Management of Increasingly Complex Systems Some of these potential emerging hazards relate to the increasing complexity of the overall system of aviation operations, and in particular the softwarebased systems that human operators are expected to employ and monitor.
From page 79...
... EMERGING AVIATION SAFETY HAZARDS AND FUTURE IDENTIFICATION 79 aircraft which have very different speeds, weights, and flight trajectories into the airspace around airports that was designed around the maneuvering capabilities of conventional commercial aircraft. Climate Change A different class of potential emerging hazards is related to climate change and policies to respond to it.
From page 80...
... 80 EMERGING HAZARDS IN COMMERCIAL AVIATION -- REPORT 1 and less on engineering and management of the complex systems of safety controls and design and operating assumptions that they are based on, reflecting a form of organization drift. The subtlety of such shifts can also be challenging for the regulator to identify because they would affect organizational management decisions that have direct and indirect consequences on safety that may not manifest for some time.
From page 81...
... EMERGING AVIATION SAFETY HAZARDS AND FUTURE IDENTIFICATION 81 batteries were added to commercial aircraft without fully understanding how different their required quality assurance and failure modes are from the battery types traditionally used in aviation; indeed, concerns continue with the transport of lithium-ion batteries as cargo. As another example, the potential for additive manufacturing will introduce not only new materials, but also structural shapes that were never possible with traditional manufacturing methods.
From page 82...
... 82 EMERGING HAZARDS IN COMMERCIAL AVIATION -- REPORT 1 to tease out and debate additional potential emerging hazards based on expert judgment, as described in more detail in the next section. An additional element of the committee's task is to "draw on the results of FAA's annual internal safety culture assessments and also advise the agency on data and approaches for assessing safety culture to ensure that FAA is identifying emerging risks to commercial aviation and sharing that information throughout the agency and with the public." This task refers specifically to the annual safety culture assessment that Congress required the FAA Aviation Safety office to conduct following the two crashes of Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia.
From page 83...
... EMERGING AVIATION SAFETY HAZARDS AND FUTURE IDENTIFICATION 83 Future, 2011)
From page 84...
... 84 EMERGING HAZARDS IN COMMERCIAL AVIATION -- REPORT 1 Sarter, N., and D Woods.

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