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Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance Proceedings of a Workshop (2022) / Chapter Skim
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4 Planning, Forecasting, and Intelligence Preparation
Pages 11-16

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From page 11...
... Love, USGS's adviser for geomagnetic research and a member of the Space Weather Operations Research and Mitigation Working Group of the National Science and Technology Council; Nestor Alfonzo Santamaria, senior adviser on risk governance at OECD; and Madhav Marathe, distinguished professor in biocomplexity at the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute. Christopher Barrett moderated the discussion following the three presentations.
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From page 12...
... To map geoelectric hazards across the United States, Love and his collaborators have adopted an empirical model approach familiar from time series analysis: • An input signal that varies over time -- the geomagnetic variation generated by the Sun, • Convolution of that signal through a filter -- Earth's heterogeneous composition, and • An output signal that varies over time -- a geoelectric field that can damage power grids. Powering the model are magnetic observatory data that record geomagnetic variation at stations across the United States and Canada and survey data from magnetotelluric measurements that yield Earth's surface impedance as a function of location.
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From page 13...
... Love also called for open access to power grid impact data to better understand how EMP and magnetic storms can affect engineered systems. When asked if the power grid industry is doing something to address these hazards, Love replied yes, that the industry takes these magnetic storms seriously and has made progress that gives the industry operational flexibility during a magnetic storm.
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From page 14...
... This process involves gathering a team of experts to outline the problems that may worsen during an event and then identify three to five concrete issues that crisis managers need to look for during a serious event. PLANNING AND RESPONDING TO SIGNIFICANT RARE EVENTS Madhav Marathe's presentation focused on socially coupled networks, which are the networks that allow the flow of goods, services, people, finances, and information.
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From page 15...
... This involved building a large, agent-based modeling environment for the entire United States that is a digital twin of the nation5 that includes a detailed representation of the underlying social contact network using data from various sources. This model is able to forecast how COVID-19 would spread in every state and county in great detail using current data on vaccine uptake according to demographics, hesitancy surveys, policies and interventions in place, and vaccine supplies.
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From page 16...
... "I think having explicit mechanisms to address cognitive biases is important in decision making, particularly for rare events," he said.
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Key Terms

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  • magnetic storms
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  • geoelectric hazards
  • widespread disruption
  • magnetic super
  • western united
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  • geoelectric field
  • risk analysis
  • electric field
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  • example marathe

  • workshop report
  • marathe discussed
  • caused widespread
  • alfonzo santamaria
  • nestor alfonzo

  • discussed involved
  • operations research
  • weather operations
  • crisis managers
  • statistical analyses

  • upper midwest
  • technology council
  • major magnetic
  • produces magnetic
  • magnetic observatory


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