Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance Proceedings of a Workshop (2022) / Chapter Skim
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7 Multisource Information Fusion, Situation Assessment, and Course of Action Selection
7 Multisource Information Fusion, Situation Assessment, and Course of Action Selection
Pages 23-29
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From page 23... ...
Similarly, climate scientists have been raising the alarm about climate change and the dire consequences it would have, but policy makers failed to take this warning s eriously until the growing number of extreme weather events provided a taste of what the future holds without action. Hill explained there are many cognitive reasons for why humanity keeps getting caught unprepared for these events that are no longer rare, with a major reason being that humans suffer from a failure of imagination.
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From page 24... ...
Hill explained that a 2006 special report in the Harvard Business Review1 outlined the risks of a pandemic and the planning needed to respond to a pandemic, information that the business world, or policy makers for that matter, did not use to prepare for the current pandemic. This report recognized that a pandemic differs fundamentally from other more traditional business continuity risks in that it is not a discrete event, but rather an unfolding global event.
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From page 25... ...
Active regions, Knipp described, are nests of complex magnetisms that fuel solar eruptions of energetic particles that can travel at relativistic speeds and penetrate spacecraft and Earth's atmosphere minutes later, followed by slower waves of magnetized ejected coronal mass. She noted that some of the worst disruptions occur when a series of multiple interacting bursts and ejections reach Earth.
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From page 26... ...
Organek indicated that other hazards, such as a cyber-attack, a coordinated physical attack, or intentional electromagnetic interference, could further aggravate a black sky event, which fortunately did not happened during the Texas blackout. Such intentional, malicious attacks might also be more conducive to study in terms of being able to anticipate rare events, he said.
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From page 27... ...
Pink flamingos refer to known knowns that are often discussed and ignored by leaders who are trapped in organizational cultures and rigid bureaucratic decision-making structures.7 The term was used to describe the failure of leadership to view military installations as combat platforms that support force projection instead of being simply industrial complexes where people work. Black swans refer to unknown unknowns or an event or situation that is unpredictable as a major effect8 and about which everyone agrees afterward was something for which there were actions that could have and should been taken to prevent it.
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From page 28... ...
Modelers, she noted, have not been able to identify the cascading compounding effects that follow from weather extremes or rare events. It was clear that the electric grid in California was not ready for the wildfires that have increasingly affected the state, and the grids shut down when there is a major fire, producing a cascading effect on the state's economy.
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From page 29... ...
Today, local decision makers may assume the federal government will take care of any consequences that develop, and Hill suggested that the federal government could send strong signals that if communities want the maximum economic help after a disaster, they need to invest in risk reduction. In fact, the federal government decided in the 1960s that states are responsible for developments on coastal barrier islands if they want to allow that to happen.
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