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Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance Proceedings of a Workshop (2022) / Chapter Skim
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2 Mathematical Foundations for Anticipating Rare Events
Pages 3-4

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From page 3...
... Rather than talk about the probability of nuclear war, Orlitsky said his presentation would focus on topics where it is possible to derive rigorous, mathematically provable results about rare and unseen events. The difference between a nuclear event and a solvable rare event is that the former is a binary event -- it either does or does not happen -- for which Orlitsky argues prediction is impossible.
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From page 4...
... As an example, he noted that the cities where terrorist attacks occur have a structure that would be good to include in calculating those probabilities. Similarly, Barrett noted that because systems are not stable and are constantly evolving, it will be necessary to perform these calculations repeatedly as the underlying estimates change.
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