The National Academies Press

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Pages 169-190

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From page 169... ... Dissolved organic and particulate phosphorus can represent substantial fractions of TP concentrations in STA outflows, but current management efforts are generally focused on TP rather than individual forms of phosphorus. The interplay between nitrogen and phosphorus and the significance of nitrogen-limiting conditions deserves additional atten tion in understanding factors that affect phosphorus removal efficiency. Read the entire page →
From page 170... ... . Restoration Strategies includes all three approaches in some capacity to reach the WQBEL, with most efforts devoted to improving phosphorus removal efficiency, but little progress has been made to reduce subregional phosphorus loads in the Eastern Flow Path. Read the entire page →
From page 171... ... Project as an example of the critical need to consider climate change in planning. Next, the committee discusses how some aspects of climate change can influence the operations of CERP projects, highlighting the Lake Okeechobee operations, and reviews the role of System Operating Manuals in efforts to adapt to climate change. Read the entire page →
From page 172... ... . During the past 20 years, the South Florida ecosystem has been impacted by Hurricanes Frances (2004) Read the entire page →
From page 173... ... Future air temperature projections for two emission scenarios -- Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, the lower emission scenario, and RCP 8.5, the higher emission scenario -- suggest that temperature changes will continue to increase in South Florida through the 21st century (Figure 5-1) Read the entire page →
From page 174... ... . Future projections of precipitation for South Florida are highly uncertain and do not capture the variability evident in observations. Read the entire page →
From page 175... ... Restoration in the Context of Climate Change 175 FIGURE 5-3 Historical measurements and future projections of annual dry days (top) and the number of precipitation events per year in which precipitation exceeded 3 inches (7.6 cm; bottom) Read the entire page →
From page 176... ... SOURCE: https://www2.usgs.gov/landresources/lcs/nccv/maca2/maca2_counties.html. Similar projections are available for evapotranspiration and runoff.2 Although future changes in precipitation are highly uncertain and projections of average annual precipitation currently appear relatively stable, it is quite certain that future climate will drive increases in rates of evapotranspiration due to pro jected increases in air temperature that will subsequently drive decreased runoff (Figure 5-4) Read the entire page →
From page 177... ... The projected decreases in runoff are highly seasonal, with the largest relative changes occurring early in the wet season, during the months of June, July, and August (Figure 5-5) Read the entire page →
From page 178... ... Annotated measurements on right of figure are computed by subtracting the 5-year average mean sea levels for the years listed. The sea-level rise computed based on the linear trend will differ from the 5-year mean sea-level trend shown. Read the entire page →
From page 179... ... FIGURE 5-7 Unified projections of sea-level rise for South Florida. Read the entire page →
From page 180... ... for a review of climate change effects on South Florida e stuaries and their restoration goals. Understanding the potential effects of climate change and their relationships to CERP projects is necessary to ensure sound investments that enhance the resilience of the South Florida ecosystem. Read the entire page →
From page 181... ... The USACE updated this guidance in its 2000 Planning Guidance Notebook (USACE, 2000) , which informed early CERP planning studies, including the Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands (BBCW) Read the entire page →
From page 182... ... However, it may be used by project partners, such as the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) , to understand potential vulnerabilities Read the entire page →
From page 183... ... Restoration in the Context of Climate Change 183 FIGURE 5-8 USACE process for qualitative analysis of climate change impacts on inland hydrology. NOTES: CoP = Community of Practice, CPR = Climate Preparedness and Resiliency, HUC = hydrologic unit code, NWS = National Weather Service, PDT = project development team. Read the entire page →
From page 184... ... emphasizes that the historical record provides a relatively limited sampling of the conditions that will be experienced in the future. It cannot be assumed that the future climate will be well represented by historical condi BOX 5-1 South Florida Water Management District Resiliency Planning The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) Read the entire page →
From page 185... ... Simulations of plausible climate scenarios have been applied to water systems planning throughout the world and may be beneficial to CERP planning efforts. Several examples of successful approaches that could be highly appropriate for CERP project planning are described in Box 5-2. Read the entire page →
From page 186... ... . Application of these methods in CERP planning would be straightforward in principle, notwithstanding the inevitable details of implementation in the exist ing suite of modeling tools. Read the entire page →
From page 187... ... As discussed in more depth in Chapter 3, the project seeks to • restore ecological conditions in the Model Lands, Southern Glades, por tions of Everglades National Park, and coastal wetlands; • restore conditions in the near-shore zones of Biscayne Bay, including Biscayne National Park, Card Sound, Barnes Sound, and Manatee Bay; • improve ecological and hydrologic connectivity among Biscayne Bay coastal wetlands, the Model Lands, and Southern Glades; and • increase resiliency of coastal habitats in southeastern Miami-Dade County to sea-level change (USACE and SFWMD, 2020c) Read the entire page →
From page 188... ... tion benefits. The committee has previously noted that ongoing climate change, including changes in precipitation patterns, sea-level rise, and ocean warming, challenge the ability of many CERP restoration efforts to meet the "essential hydrological and biological characteristics that defined the undisturbed South Florida ecosystem" (NASEM, 2016) Read the entire page →
From page 189... ... to track progress toward this objective in the evaluation of project alternatives, although currently there is no plan to weight this measure more strongly than the other seven performance measures.4 The BBSEER Project also aims to maintain a 500-meter near-shore zone within m esohaline conditions (5-18 psu) ; The performance measures are near-shore salinity, direct canal releases, timing and distribution 4 of flow sources to Biscayne Bay, hydroperiods, water depth, wetland salinity, adaptive foundational resilience, and ecological connectivity. Read the entire page →
From page 190... ... restore freshwater depths, hydroperiods, and flows in terrestrial wetlands; and connect habitats from the sawgrass marsh through saltwater wetlands to open water across a 0-35 psu gradient.5 Many of the desired outcomes of the BBSEER Project depend upon increased freshwater flow (by volume) in the southern Everglades afforded by new storage and/or wastewater reuse. Read the entire page →

From page 169...

... Dissolved organic and particulate phosphorus can represent substantial fractions of TP concentrations in STA outflows, but current management efforts are generally focused on TP rather than individual forms of phosphorus. The interplay between nitrogen and phosphorus and the significance of nitrogen-limiting conditions deserves additional atten tion in understanding factors that affect phosphorus removal efficiency.