Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades The Ninth Biennial Review - 2022 (2023) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 191-216
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From page 191... ...
through Everglades National Park, the lower east coast, and the Model Lands, using a daily time step over a 52-year period (1965-2016)
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From page 192... ...
. In BBSEER, BISECT will not directly simulate p roject features; instead, it will utilize RSM-GL structure flows and stages at canals and project features.
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From page 193... ...
for 2085. The FWO will capture the effect of a step increase in sea level without BBSEER but including authorized CERP projects, including the Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP)
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From page 194... ...
Despite ongoing collaborative efforts between the SFWMD and Florida International University to develop new scenarios of precipitation under climate change to support restoration decision making, future precipitation scenarios will not be incorporated into the BBSEER analysis. The BBSEER modeling for the evaluation of project alternatives will be based on the prior climate record, which assumes that the historical time series of precipitation and air temperature provide an adequate set of conditions to fully test the robustness of the candi date plans to future climate conditions.
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From page 195... ...
Thus, the key question is whether and to what degree the historical observed weather record provides a reasonable simulation of the conditions under which the restoration project will take place. It is worth noting that in the practice of water planning, it is not uncommon that the historical record retains a primacy for project evaluation.
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From page 196... ...
Climate change in South Florida will have a myriad of effects, including monotonic sea-level rise, temperature change, and the potential for increased variability and extremes of precipitation and temperature that will impact not only the surface-water budget but also the ecological dynamics of the system. Project alternatives could be impacted in different ways.
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From page 197... ...
Rather, it is intended to emphasize the need for model development work to support future planning efforts to begin in parallel with ongoing planning. Otherwise, future project planning efforts, especially for the coastal ecosystem (e.g., the Southern Everglades Project)
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From page 198... ...
LOSOM has an explicit goal to incorporate flexibility into Lake Okeechobee operations while balancing congressionally authorized project purposes. The development of LOSOM included analyses of numerous scenarios based on correlation matrices of performance metrics and use of multi-criteria decision analysis to identify an optimal balance to minimize impacts and/or maximize benefits to the lake itself, the connecting northern estuaries, the remnant Everglades, and water supply to the region.
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From page 199... ...
For example, stakeholders throughout South Florida have expressed serious concerns about Lake Okeechobee operations. In the northern estuaries, excess releases from Lake Okeechobee result in high nutrient loads and changes in salinity, leading to losses in the shellfish and pinfish communities; loss of Vallisneria (Doering et al., 2002)
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From page 200... ...
. In the scenario with 1.5°C increase in air temperature and an associated increase in evapotranspiration with no difference in rainfall, surface elevations in Lake Okeechobee were projected to decrease to an elevation of 6.9 feet (2.1 m)
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From page 201... ...
Lucie (regulatory) 21 8 22 1 Caloosahatchee River (regulatory)
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From page 202... ...
(a) fully hydrate the littoral marsh, and then allow it to dry out but leave sufficient water in the near-shore zone for submerged aquatic vegetation to flourish.
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From page 203... ...
The System Operating Manual consists of seven volumes, organized according to geographical regions, that are designed to collectively provide a systemwide framework for the operation of components of the Central & Southern Florida Project and CERP projects to ensure that they function in a coordinated, systematic way. The Programmatic Regulations (33 CFR §385.3)
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From page 204... ...
This provision recognizes that changes can occur between project planning and operations of the final projects, because of changes not only in individual project features but also in other aspects of the system. Because CERP principles dictate the use of adaptive management based on the best available science, it is appropriate that the System Operating Manual be viewed as a vehicle to modify system operations based on evolving understanding of climate change and its effects to achieve CERP goals.
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From page 205... ...
. This pattern suggests that only a few project planning efforts remain, with the largest of these being the Southern Everglades Project, although efforts are also under way to update the System Operating Manual, which could provide important opportunities for adaptive management at the system scale in the context of climate change.
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From page 206... ...
Increases in sea level will alter the salinity and habitats in coastal and near coastal regions, and increases in air tempera 8 According to the Programmatic Regulations, "The periodic CERP updates will be accomplished by the Corps of Engineers and the South Florida Water Management District, in consultation with Tribes, Federal, State, and local agencies, to conduct an evaluation of the Plan using new or updated modeling that includes the latest scientific, technical, and planning information. The periodic CERP updates will provide a basis for determining if management actions are necessary to seek improvements in the Plan based upon new information resulting from changed or unforeseen circumstances, new scientific and technical information, new or updated modeling; information developed through the assessment principles contained in the Plan; and future authorized changes to the Plan." The periodic CERP updates will also "determine the total quantity of water that is expected to be generated by implementation of the Plan, including the quantity needed for the natural system and human environment."
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From page 207... ...
USACE project planning efforts seek to identify justifiable solutions to current problems that will ensure performance for the next 50 years at minimum, and USACE policy requires that restoration planning must meaningfully consider climate change trends and potentially increasing climate variability. Past CERP evaluations of climate change effects have been inconsistent and often limited to a step increase in sea-level rise.
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From page 208... ...
Regular revisions to the System Operating Manual and other major operational plans, such as LOSOM or the Combined Operational Plan, provide an opportunity to incor porate evolving understanding of climate variability and change into Everglades restoration. Several recent major operational planning efforts, such as LOSOM, have proceeded based on analysis of a prior 52-year climate record, with limited assessment of potential changes in future air temperature or precipitation, provid ing an incomplete view of their performance under potential future conditions.
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From page 209... ...
The lack of USACE guidance on the use of accepted information related to changes in precipitation and air temperature in quantitative analysis as part of project planning leads to future vulnerabilities to climate change and variability as CERP projects come on line. The science of global climate change is mature and rigorous, and many other water resources planning projects, in the United States and globally, routinely use climate change scenarios to examine project performance under a range of future conditions.
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From page 211... ...
The committee's previous report (NASEM, 2021) identified an increasing need for science at this point in the program's development to support decision making as the restoration program pivots from a focus on planning and advancing individual projects toward operations and adaptive management of the partially restored system, in parallel with ongoing planning for the remaining CERP projects.
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From page 212... ...
THE NEED FOR A SCIENCE PLAN The accelerating pace of restoration decision making, as more projects come on line and the South Florida ecosystem responds to changes in water manage ment, increases demands for science support. These demands include, but are not limited to, the synthesis and analysis of monitoring data, identification of critical knowledge gaps and how to address them, and refinement of models.
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From page 213... ...
The Everglades Restoration Science Plan envisaged here could be a parallel document to the Integrated Delivery Schedule that anticipates science needs, enables alignment of a wide range of resources in an efficient manner, and ensures that information is available when it is needed to support the program (see Box 6-1)
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From page 214... ...
The Restoration Strategies Science Plan does the same for improved performance of STAs (see Box 4-2) , with 22 studies designed to address key uncertainties and improve management decisions and tools in the effort to meet STA discharge water quality requirements (see Chapter 4)
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From page 215... ...
ENGAGING THE SOUTH FLORIDA RESTORATION SCIENCE ENTERPRISE Many different organizations contribute to the science that underpins the restoration of the South Florida ecosystem. Here the committee considers the South Florida restoration science enterprise to include local, state, and federal agencies; Tribal nations; academia; nonprofits; and private-sector organizations that have scientific capacity and the ability to contribute financial resources, skills and expertise, facilities, and/or other resources to undertake scientific activities.
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From page 216... ...
3. Advancement of essential science actions: the identification of specific science actions that serve to guide multiagency work plans and funding decisions.
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