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3 Research, Observation, and Modeling Needs: Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Thermosphere, and Mesosphere
Pages 36-51

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From page 36...
... • There is a lack of understanding of extreme space weather conditions, their drivers and impacts, and further measurements are needed on these rare events. • Multipoint measurements in an arrangement providing global coverage are key in resolving the space weather processes.
From page 37...
... THE MAGNETOSPHERE The Magnetosphere Panel was moderated by committee member Terry Onsager. Its panelists were Christine Gabrielse of the Aerospace Corporation, Larry Kepko of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Matina Gkioulidou of the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins University, and Vania Jordanova of Los Alamos National Laboratory.
From page 38...
... The various systems that make up the magnetosphere (bow shock, magnetosheath, magnetopause, plasmasphere, ring current, radiation belts, magnetotail, etc.) cannot be studied in isolation.
From page 39...
... , inner magnetosphere/magnetotail coupling, the cold plasma distribution, auroral coupling, ion outflow, and the coupling of kinetic processes to mesoscale structures. Geospace state variables, such as the upstream solar wind, auroral configuration, cross-polar-cap potential, the state of the radiation belts, polar cap open flux, solar irradiance, cold plasma density, auroral field–aligned currents, ionospheric convection maps, geomagnetic indices, and ionospheric total electron content need to be measured.
From page 40...
... Numerical modeling was also described as an essential component of resolving the mesoscale structures and connecting the microscale, mesoscale, and global processes. Improving space weather predictions will require models that can connect the various regional models and incorporate the mesoscale processes and the cross-scale dynamics into the global model.
From page 41...
... The radiation environment is an important source of solar cell voltage degradation, and current statistical models (AE9/AP9) are insufficient to predict fluences on time scales of days, months, and even a couple of years.
From page 42...
... Nishimura, presentation at the 2016 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, data obtained from the Space Physics Data Facility. It was shown that a model using data from the two van Allen probes was able to more accurately predict the observed voltage degradation on satellites than the statistical model.3 With additional satellites in the geostationary transfer orbit, the magnetic local time dependence of the radiation environment could also be modeled.
From page 43...
... The five panelists were Seebany Datta-Barua of the Illinois Institute of Technology, Charles Carrano of Boston College, Jonathan Snively of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Sean Bruinsma of the Space Geodesy Office of the French space agency CNES, and Greg Ginet of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The panelists were asked to address two key questions: • What do we need to understand to enable predictive capability of the thermospheric and iono spheric state and irregularities?
From page 44...
... There are several possible ways to realize observational systems that would address these issues, each of which has its own issues: A GNSS ground-based and remote occultation total electron content (TEC) network may not have the spatial and temporal resolution needed in propagation applications and data assimilation models.
From page 45...
... Keeping track of the increasing number of low Earth orbiting satellites will require precision orbit determination and conjunction analysis, satellite lifetime estimation, and mission analysis. Improving predictive capabilities in the lower thermosphere–ionosphere, in particular for atmospheric drag calculations, will require improved models in the transition region at altitudes between 100 and 200 km that can capture the net energy input from the solar EUV, the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, and the magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere at sufficiently high temporal cadence.
From page 46...
... Ionospheric outflows are a key process through which the ionosphere influences the magnetosphere: They affect magnetic reconnection rates, global dynamics, tail and substorm dynamics, and the ring current and the radiation belts. The observing solutions proposed by the panel included multipoint measurements along flux tubes, global ultraviolet (UV)
From page 47...
... ) , which launch gravity waves, which in turn lead to changes in the upper atmosphere tides and gravity waves.
From page 48...
... include tail reconnection at substorm onset driven by ion scale physics TABLE 3-1  Examples of Cross-Scale Coupling: Energy Perspective Mode of Energy Transport Cross-Scale Boundary Change in Physics Significance 1. Plasma sheet injection, Mesoscale dynamics Global MHD → "kinetic" MHD Ring current dynamics poorly energization, and (1 Re × 1 minute) (embedded test particle or understood.
From page 49...
... Claudepierre identified three open questions that need to be addressed to improve the predictive capability of the magnetosphere/ITM system: the role that mesoscale injections of plasma sheet particles play in inner magnetosphere energetic particle dynamics; the significance of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) as a facilitator of magnetosphere–ionosphere coupling; and an improved understanding of global scale cold plasma evolution, energization, and motion.
From page 50...
... Kintner, 2002, Observations of equatorial spread-F from Haleakala, Hawaii, Geophysical Research Letters 29(20) :64-1–64-4, Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union; Top right: Defense Nuclear Agency, 1979, "Backscatter Measurements of 11-cm Equatorial Spread-F Irregularities," Washington, DC: Department of Defense, https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA091980.pdf; Bottom: Courtesy of David Hysell, Cornell University.
From page 51...
... Solar wind energy input can only account for 50-60 percent of the magnetic perturbations in the ionosphere, with the other 40-50 percent likely coming from the magnetosphere associated with substorm activity. This second component is important, as substorms power the radiation belts and the ring current and deposit energy into the ionosphere and drive geomagnetically induced currents, which are a space weather hazard.


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