Review of the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment (2023) / Chapter Skim
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2 Overarching Comments and Recommendations
2 Overarching Comments and Recommendations
Pages 9-34
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report was released in 2018. The Committee also commends the NCA process for the inclusion of traceable accounts sections at the end of each chapter to describe the process and rationale authors used to develop the chapter and reach consensus on key messages.
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In addition, although the Committee has recommendations on how to better integrate uncertainties into the text supporting key messages, overall, the NCA5
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The draft NCA5 report covers all of the topics enumerated in subsection 2 of the GCRA, including individual chapters on climate change impacts on natural ecosystems and biological diversity (Chapter 8 [Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity]
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In the section that follows, the Committee outlines recommendations that address the structure of chapters across the entire draft NCA5 report. Overall, the Committee recommends that consistent structures be followed for key messages, traceable accounts, chapter introductions, and figures.
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, the title of Key Message 17.2 could be rephrased from "National Security" to "Destabilization of Other Countries by Climate Change Affects US National Security." Additionally, the Committee appreciates that authors include the words "Key Message" in each label to cue to audiences of what they are reading and its importance. If the authors write titles as brief statements, they should be carefully written to be consistent with the knowledge base in the key message and traceable accounts.
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The authors should also carefully consider the use of terms that can be imprecise, such as "historically," "already," and "currently," ensuring that they are used in consistent, accurate ways across key messages. Many language issues occur across multiple chapters, and NCA5 authors may find it useful to look at the full list of key messages together to ensure that terms are being used harmoniously.
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Attention is needed to ensure text supporting the key messages adequately achieves these goals consistently across NCA5. Recommendation 3: Confidence and likelihood statements should be used consistently for each claim across all key messages, and readers should be able to readily understand what is meant by confidence and likelihood.
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Because general audiences may only read the main text and not the more technical traceable accounts, it may also be appropriate to highlight key uncertainties briefly in the text supporting the key messages. Specifically, providing uncertainty or knowledge gaps with scientific claims makes the information more useful to decision makers and increases transparency, which can contribute to trustworthiness.
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Many readers may never read the Front Matter where these terms are defined. Traceable Accounts Recommendation 4: A consistent framework for traceable accounts sections would better support the key messages and build consistency and credibility across chapters.
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There are many dense and technical passages in the text supporting the key messages that may be better suited for traceable accounts sections to enhance the readability of the main text (e.g., the text describing advances in the understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity in Chapter 3 [Earth System Processes] , pages 3-9 to 3-10)
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While it is appropriate for the text supporting the key messages to look different from one chapter to another, consistent introductory sections would provide readers with the appropriate context and a roadmap to understand the rest of the chapter. The consistent inclusion of sub-headers throughout chapters could also help to support this goal.
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While figures may be more appropriate for some chapter introductions over others, there are opportunities to build consistency -- for example, all regional chapters could include a map of the region with place names and locations referenced throughout the chapter. Introductions that use figures could consistently place them at the end of the section rather than in the middle because they are typically short sections.
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. Regarding symbols and icons, NCA5 authors could consider adopting a similar style of icons across the report, and use them consistently (e.g., a fish icon representing fisheries in one figure will be the same fish icon representing fisheries in another graphic)
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As a web-first report, it is unlikely NCA5 will be read by audiences cover-to-cover; thus, it is appropriate for chapter authors to design their chapters to meet their specific topical needs. However, there are certain content areas, described below, that would benefit from more consistent treatment throughout the draft NCA5 report to strengthen the credibility of key messages and enhance clarity and readability.
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Both sectors have GHG emissions or removals and are affected by climate change and thus address both mitigation and adaptation. Regional chapters in particular inconsistently include mitigation in key messages.
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Clearly describing impacts due to natural variability, climate change, or a combination of the two is important not only for informing policy decisions, but also for building public understand and trust in the report's messages. Climate change and natural variability should be clearly defined in the glossary and natural variability could be introduced in chapter introductions when the concept is important for understanding key messages.
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Additionally, the Focus On… Features should reflect a structure similar to that of the national and regional chapters to effectively communicate the chosen topics. The bolded statements in each Focus On… Feature should be treated as key messages, be clearly and carefully written in concise, accurate sentences, and they should include confidence and likelihood statements.
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. The national chapters lay out foundational concepts and the regional chapters build on that information to explore
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Each chapter should discuss these limitations in the literature (as mentioned above) in their traceable accounts sections.
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The Committee recommends including equity and justice framing in chapter introductions and prioritizing the integration of related issues throughout the chapters where possible, rather than stand-alone sections addressing the topic. Doing so would highlight systemic interconnections and help avoid the appearance of addressing the topic as an afterthought.
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Recommendation 13: To provide equitable access to climate-related information across US communities, national chapters should include all US islands and territories in their figures and assessments whenever possible. 3 See https://nysclimateimpacts.org.
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addresses GHG mitigation together with adaptation but does not include emissions or mitigation in any of the key messages. Some chapters discuss adaptation and mitigation as a grouped topic (e.g., Chapter 16 [Tribes and Indigenous Peoples]
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Projected Impacts of Climate Change The impacts of climate change are increasing, resulting in greater impacts on health, the built environment, and natural systems. However, the focus of many key messages across the draft NCA5 report is on recent observed changes and impacts.
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) but there is little or no discussion disentangling natural variability from climate change as causes of extreme events, as discussed above.
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OVERARCHING COMMENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 33 draft NCA5 report. The regional chapters generally do a better job of commenting on rural areas, though there are opportunities, for example, in Chapter 28 (Southwest)
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Key Terms
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