The Coast Guard’s Next Decade: An Assessment of Emerging Challenges and Statutory Needs (2023) / Chapter Skim
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maritime domain that are likely to demand Coast Guard "oversight, regulation, or action" over the next decade, and then to assess whether the Coast Guard may need any adjustments or additions to its statutory authority to be able to address the identified issues.1 The study committee formed to carry out this congressional mandate operated under a statement of task that reflected the congressional emphasis on discerning the adequacy of the Coast Guard's statutory authority. The statement of task also directed the committee to consider whether, in addition to adequate statutory authority, the Coast Guard possessed sufficient "related abilities" to respond effectively to issues likely to emerge over the coming decade.
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Finally, the committee conducted a high-level examination of the Coast Guard's legal authority to take each of the types of actions that will likely be needed. To identify foreseeable developments, as well as to identify likely actions needed in response and to assess the adequacy of the Coast Guard's existing statutory authority, the study committee consulted widely with leaders of the Coast Guard, individuals from outside the Coast Guard with broad maritime domain experience, and experts in a range of relevant technical fields.
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Nevertheless, with respect to the more than 30 types of actions likely needed to respond to the 10 emerging issues identified in this study, the committee concluded that the Coast Guard generally possesses sufficient statutory authority to respond to foreseeable developments in the maritime domain over the next decade. With respect to two issues, however, the committee concluded that the Coast Guard lacks sufficiently clear authority over the next decade to fully ensure the safety, security, and stewardship of the Marine Transportation System: • Manning requirements for vessels currently call for human operators to be on board all vessels and may thus limit the Coast Guard's ability to approve, as appropriate, vessels that use autonomous systems in lieu of an onboard crew.
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One possible way to reduce the risk of such limiting judicial decisions may be for Congress to state explicitly that it intends the general authority it has granted the Coast Guard to encompass a broad range of new and even unforeseen risks to the maritime domain. Based on its assessment of statutory authority to respond to the identified foreseeable developments, the committee recommends the following: Recommendation 1: As part of a broader, ongoing effort to ensure that Coast Guard statutory authority is sufficiently clear, up to date, and adequate to meet future demands, Congress should closely analyze two foreseeable statutory limitations: (a)
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Even all the necessary statutory authority cannot substitute for sufficient resources and operational capacities and capabilities. In its consideration of the "related abilities" that the Coast Guard will need to respond effectively to future challenges, the committee concluded that the Service will need an adequate, well-trained workforce, the ability to marshal and analyze data for decisions, and the capacity to deploy modernized assets and advanced technology.
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Recommendation 3: The Coast Guard should strengthen and deepen its strategic foresight planning in a manner that can inform decisions across Coast Guard leadership tenures. To obtain additional insight into future developments and plan for responses to challenges, the Coast Guard should leverage experience with its Evergreen process and continue to innovate in its use of foresight by employing state-of-the-art methods such as those explicated herein, considering the prospect of multiple developments occurring in close succession or simultaneously and their potential interactions, and incorporating legal foresight into the strategic foresight process to account for any future statutory needs.
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