Compounding Disasters in Gulf Coast Communities 2020-2021 Impacts, Findings, and Lessons Learned (2024) / Chapter Skim
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2 Hazards, Exposure, Vulnerabilities, and Disaster Risk in the Gulf of Mexico Region
2 Hazards, Exposure, Vulnerabilities, and Disaster Risk in the Gulf of Mexico Region
Pages 43-102
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From page 43... ...
These inequitable circumstances, particularly among communities of color, Indigenous populations, and those living in poverty and areas of historical socioeconomic disadvantage, increase disaster risk and constrain opportunities to expand adaptive capacity, community resilience, and health and prosperity, further elevating the risk of future disaster impacts.
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, which represent dimensions of both vulnerability and exposure in the context of disaster risk. Baseline conditions for social determinants of health are generally poorer for Gulf of Mexico states than for the rest of the United States, with systematic disparities in mortality and other measures of well-being even across small areas that lie relatively close together (NASEM, 2017)
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. Against this backdrop, this chapter explores the drivers of disaster risk in the GOM region: hazards, exposure, and vulnerabilities beginning with a brief background on climate attribution science and a description of the natural and technological hazards that contributed to compounding impacts in the GOM in 2020–2021.
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document that rainstorms associated with lower-category hurricanes are the most prolific rain producers, with inland freshwater flooding being one of the deadliest aspects of landfalling tropical cyclones (Rappaport, 2014)
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is 256 times greater than that from a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Stronger storms also mean the potential for higher storm surge, due not only to stronger winds driving storm surge inland, but also to rising ocean temperatures that lead to an expansion of the sea's volume and corresponding sea level rise (Barlow and Camargo, 2022)
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. These shifting climate conditions will likely contribute to continued changes in hazard characteristics: in combination with the heavily populated and built-up coast, an increase in disruptive events, subsequent compounding of disasters, and likely less time for disaster recovery before the next tropical cyclone makes landfall.
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HAZARDS, EXPOSURE, VULNERABILITIES, AND DISASTER RISK 49 FIGURE 2-1 Frequency of county/parish-level landfalling storms per decade since 1900: (A) tropical storms and hurricanes, (B)
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. Tornadic activity is not the only source of wind damage in the GOM region.
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. Three GOM states have the second (Texas)
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. By both 2050 and 2100, sea level rise is projected to be highest along the western Gulf Coast.
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Sea level rise and land subsidence are phenomena that, like other chronic, slow-moving hazards such as "nuisance flooding" and the slow march of drought, can have significant agricultural, environmental, economic, health, and social consequences on their own, but in combination with more acute stressors and a changing climate, can be catastrophic. Technological Hazards: Chemical Releases The GOM region is the primary U.S.
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. Yet, they are typically overlooked in regional and national disaster risk management plans (Girgin et al., 2019)
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. From 1940 to 2020, GOM states experienced significant population growth (432.7 percent, 34 million people)
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. Rapid population growth in GOM states has further contributed to extending and expanding persistent socioeconomic inequities (USGCRP, 2023)
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. ASCE 7-22 also defines tornado-prone regions of the United States, which includes the entirety of all GOM states, highlighting that geographies within 100–150 miles of the GOM coastline face heightened exposure to all varieties of wind hazards compared with the overall continental United 3 The International Codes are developed by the International Code Council, which uses a governmental consensus process to develop International Codes (I-Codes)
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58 TABLE 2-1 Selected Demographics of Counties/Parishes in GOM States in 2020 Race–Black or Ethnicity– Owner-occupied Race–White African American Hispanic or housing unit rate Median Poverty County, State Population alone (%) alone (%)
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of the Gulf Coast is 1.2 m (4 ft) or less above current sea levels.
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. Sea level rise and flood exposure will significantly impact businesses and residents adjacent to or dependent upon the bayous, coastlines, and coastal waterways, and also inland areas subject to riparian flooding (Colten, 2021)
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FIGURE 2-5 Physical factors contributing directly to flood exposure.
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. This increased exposure occurred, for example, during and after Hurricane Harvey, when many low-income communities were dispropor tionately exposed to chemical contaminants (Karaye, Stone et al., 2019)
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. Fenceline communities' proximity to industrial facilities means that they are not only exposed to potentially toxic emissions but face higher risk of exposure to a Natech event (Nicole, 2021; see "Technological Hazards: Chemical Releases" earlier in this chapter for more information on Natech events)
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. The identities, conditions, and demographics of vulnerable individuals can be intersectional, operating together to increase disaster risk.
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Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) .5 Table 2-2 presents county-level SVI vulnerability measures for GOM states in 2000 and 2018, as well as the percentage change for each variable for the GOM region and the United States.
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TABLE 2-2 County-Level Vulnerability Measures from the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) for the GOM States and 66 Percent Change, 2000–2018, GOM States and United States Year 2000 Year 2000 Year 2018 Year 2018 2000 to 2018 2000 to 2018 (%)
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Data from 2018, before the categories changed, are therefore used for the comparison with 2000. Pink cells indicate increasing vulnerability, and blue cells indicate decreasing vulnerability.
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. However, access to and quality of education take on increased importance in the context of disaster risk and recovery.
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This evaluation is one way to understand a community's strengths, assets, resources, and deficits to better inform community-based planning. Providing flexible resources -- including training and financing -- directly to community-based organizations and communities will help them assess their adaptive capacity, prepare and plan for, absorb, recover, and ultimately reduce impacts from ongoing and future disruptive events.
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. Three GOM states -- Texas, Louisiana, Alabama -- and one southern state -- Tennessee -- account for 87 of the highest 100 scores of at-risk census tracts (Lewis et al., 2023)
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Among key vital statistics, compared with those in the rest of the United States, life expectancies in the GOM region are low, while infant mortality and maternal mortality rates are high (CDC, 2023a, 2023b)
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Collaborators have also conducted in-depth research on the intersection of social vulnerability, health status, and disproportionate disaster impacts, with multiple studies focusing on Hurricane Harvey. Chakraborty, Collins, and Grinesky (2019)
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Not only are GOM populations vulnerable to illness and chronic health conditions but their health systems are also vulnerable. Composite rankings for 2019–2021 across multiple measures of "health system performance" -- including health care access, quality, use of services, costs, health disparities, reproductive care and women's health, and overall health -- rank GOM states in the lowest 30 percent, with most in the bottom 20 percent: Alabama (42nd)
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Similarly, people lacking access to mental health services or experiencing social isolation may face severe mental health crises. Disaster Mental Health The psychological footprint of a disaster is larger than its medical footprint -- more people are affected psychologically than medically -- because of the compelling nature of the event and the network of con nections that extends geographically and socially beyond the scene of the event (Shultz, Espinel, Galea et al., 2007; Shultz et al., 2017)
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The GOM region has been a primary locale for exploration of how compounding disasters affect mental health. Studies have shown how frontline health professionals experienced exhaustion as they dealt with their own storm recovery while deploying to the sites of multiple other storms (Herberman Mash et al., 2013)
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. In 2010 the Deepwater Horizon disaster was a technological disaster involving release of a hazardous material (oil)
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human causation featuring corporate culpability, large spill volume, protracted duration, coastal contamination from petroleum products, severe ecological damage, disruption of Gulf Coast industries and tourism, and extensive media coverage." Studies of residents in the GOM region have shown links between exposure to severe hurricanes and PTSD, psychological stress (Cohen et al., 2023; Raker et al., 2019) and its comorbidities, substance abuse, and suicide (Gradus et al., 2010; Ouimette and Read, 2014)
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and depression (using PHQ-2) 7 in eight Texas metropolitan areas 6 months after Winter Storm Uri.
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Medically High-Risk Patients Medically high-risk patients (MHRPs) -- those whose health conditions require them to have ready access to health services, systems, and often social services -- face elevated risks from hazards (Balbus and Malina, 2009; Espinel et al., 2022; Heagele and Pacquiao, 2019; Shultz et al., 2024)
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Specific to the GOM region, Chakraborty and colleagues published a series of papers outlining elevated risks for "people with disabilities" during Hurricane Harvey (Chakraborty, Grineski, and Collins, 2019) , Winter Storm Uri (Chakraborty et al., 2023)
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During the massive power outages that accompanied Winter Storm Uri (Chakraborty et al., 2023) , people with disabilities, and most notably those living in federally assisted rental housing, sustained more severe and prolonged utility service disruptions, colder temperatures, and delayed recovery compared with nondisabled people -- experiences that jeopardized their health.
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Being able to physically gather together is an important aspect of social capital and cohesion, as well as a major source of community health resilience and recovery in the wake of a disruptive event. Compounding disruptive events can make gathering together, and hence social cohesion and access to local social support networks, far more difficult by reducing physical connectedness; they can also disrupt intergenerational knowledge transfer through increased outmigration (Roque et al., 2022)
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In the aftermath of a disaster, social capital and cohesion can become even more important as community members deal with acute individual and collective stress during disaster response and recovery. Social capital can also provide social and material resources that shield against mental health stressors associated with both chronic and acute disruptive events (Torres and Casey, 2017)
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Public Infrastructure The vulnerability of public infrastructure has been well established by the assessment and advocacy efforts of the American Society of Civil Engineers, which publishes national- and state-level Infrastructure Report Cards, presented for five GOM states -- Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas -- in Table 2-3. In short, Alabama, Florida, and Texas have overall infrastructure grades in the C or "mediocre" range, with "general signs of deterioration" and "significant deficiencies in conditions and functionality, with increasing vulnerability" for some elements (ASCE, 2021a, 2021b, 2022b)
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Meanwhile, demands are rising, with more people and more commerce in the GOM region during that same time, and now even greater demands from a changing climate. Governments are thus straining to do more with half the funding today, a situation that creates deferred maintenance and infrastructure that is well past its design life, posing safety threats and increasing vulnerability to future hazards.
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risk but also heightens the vulnerability of neighboring communities to floods and isolation. Finally, the public wastewater system vulnerabilities across the GOM region are notable, creating a significant threat to public health, as well as the potential for environmental impacts.
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An Assessment of Residential Building Code and Enforcement Systems for Life Safety and Property Protection in Hurricane-Prone Regions, Atlantic and Gulf Coast States, while Florida has led the nation in advancement of building codes to limit hurricane losses, earning the top score of 95/100 in their rating system, other GOM states such as Texas, Alabama, and Mississippi were among the lowest-rated states nationally immediately preceding 2020–2021, largely as a result of the lack of adoption and enforcement of mandatory codes statewide. Even when adopted, codes are generally not regressive, governing only new construction and major renovations.
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Since state codes reference the 2015 IRC for voluntary adoption, and coastal counties and major metropolitan areas were likely building to such standards, the census reference category "built 2010–2019" through "2020 or later" are adopted therein, assuming half the properties the first term met the new standards. b The Florida Building Code, or FBC, was enacted in 2002 and draws upon national model building codes and national consensus standards, with modifications for the Floridian context.
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Thus, access to affordable and hazard-resistant housing is essential to the existence, flourishing, and resilience of communities. Beyond the aforementioned issues of an aging housing inventory, the nation was plagued by a crisis in affordable housing well before 2020, which was exacerbated in the GOM region by the extreme weather-climate disasters and pandemic that subsequently occurred.
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It also can contribute to loss of mental health stability, safety, sense of and attachment to place, and community cohesion, affecting all sectors of society. Homeownership and a legacy of discriminatory housing practices In the GOM region, as in other parts of the United States, the legacy of discriminatory federal housing policies and practices relegated many Black Americans and other minority residents to neighborhoods and regions with disproportionate exposure to climate and industrial hazards and environmental contaminants.
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, which all can be exacerbated in compounding disasters. The disruptive events of 2020–2021 largely reinforced the persistently unequal access to home ownership (Joint Center for Housing Studies, 2021)
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Two GOM states, Texas and Florida, were among the top five states facing the most severe shortages (National Low Income Housing Coalition, 2023)
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Identities are rooted in a sense of and attachment to place and are geographically connected to the places at risk (Adger et al., 2011) in the GOM region.
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. These conditions can exacerbate marginalization and leave residents more vulnerable to subsequent disruptive events.
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Manufactured housing units Manufactured housing units (MHUs) and MHU parks are different from rented or owned houses in ways that can render the units and their inhabitants more vulnerable to climate-weather disruptive events.
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(2021) , mounting catastrophic risk has prompted the insurance industry to not only raise premiums and deductibles, but eventually to deny coverage and avoid underwriting policies in Atlantic and Gulf Coast states (Hartwig and Wilkinson, 2016)
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Mississippi has the lowest median household income in the nation, followed by Louisiana with the third lowest, and Alabama with the fifth. Among GOM states, only Texas has just above the average median household income for the nation (U.S.
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. Generally, current disaster recovery approaches fail to address the root causes of social vulnerability and instability; thus, they often exacerbate preexisting vulnerabilities in tandem with losses from the disaster itself.
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. The convergence of repeated exposure to disruptive events and heightened vulnerability results in prolonged impacts and elevated sensitivity to future disruptive events (Smit and Wandel, 2006)
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Scientific studies suggest that occurrence of rapidly intensifying and stronger tropical cyclones and bouts of extreme temperatures are increasing as a result of climate change. Shifting climate conditions will likely increase the frequency and type of hazards that GOM populations are exposed to, affording less time to recover before the occurrence of additional disruptive events.
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Vulnerabilities and exposure combine to produce a community's sensitivity to experience the occurrence of one or more disruptive events as a disaster that exceeds its capacity to absorb, respond, and recover. Communities with high vulnerability and exposure are more likely to experience long-term adverse effects of compounding disasters.
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