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1 Introduction Motivation and Context
Pages 3-7

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From page 3...
... policy makers will need to make strategic decisions to both assist with longterm planning and react to unanticipated rapid changes in the nuclear arena. Examples include the following: the current war in Ukraine, nuclear developments in the Middle East and Northeast Asia over the years, potential nuclear proliferation by countries friendly to the United States, and the past decades' security crises in South Asia.
From page 4...
... • Integration with allies and partners -- through investments in interoperability and joint capability development, cooperative posture planning, and coordinated diplomatic and economic approaches. aIntegrated deterrence is first formally defined in the 2022 unclassified National Defense Strategy and its associated Nuclear Posture Review, but similar concepts were highlighted in Nuclear Posture Reviews of previous administrations.
From page 5...
... Specifically, within the Phase I report, Chapters 2 and 4, outline classes of scenarios and threats leading to nuclear war or nuclear terrorism; Chapter 3 explores the prior literature, and Chapters 5 and 6 discuss risk analysis including qualitative and quantitative methods and their applications to the nuclear risks problem set. The Phase I report laid the groundwork for Phase II by outlining methods that are used in risk assessment for a variety of applications.
From page 6...
... These focused risks, or components of the overall risk, include programmatic or technological risk such as estimating the reliability of a particular country's nuclear stockpile; or determining the detection probability of a particular model of radiation detector at Ports of Entry. In Phase II, with access to classified information and discussions with U.S.
From page 7...
... As the United States continues to implement the expanded scope of integrated deterrence, there are multiple events that could signal deterrence failure. For the purposes of this report and its focus on the risks associated with the use of nuclear weapons (which pose an existential threat)


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