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2 Risk Analysis
Pages 8-13

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From page 8...
... In some risk analyses, relevant statistical data bases exist from which one can calculate probabilities (i.e., frequencies of occurrence) for use in the risk assessment.
From page 9...
... , risk analysis includes "risk assessment, risk characterization, risk perception, risk communication, risk management, risk governance, and policy relating to risk, in the context of risks of concern to individuals, to public and private-sector organizations, and to society at a local, regional, national, or global level."a Risk analyses that are high quality and trustworthy are based on the fundamental principles of risk analysis. Risk analysis of nuclear war is typically conducted at the global and regional levels, considering conflict among two or more nations.
From page 10...
... The report suggests that scenario development be used for events for which little or nothing is known about the event's impact or likelihood to aid decision makers and risk analysts (IOM, 2013)
From page 11...
... non-proliferation and nuclear material security assistance programs and dollars. Furthermore, the role of a nuclear nation-state actor distinguishes programmatic decisions in the nuclear terrorism field from those facing decision makers concerned about nuclear deterrence and nuclear war.
From page 12...
... and some fallout effects, and does not extend to broader and longer term effects. This information further supports this committee's Phase I Conclusion 4-1, that there is a need to improve the understanding of the physical effects of nuclear weapons (e.g., fires, damage in modern urban environments, electromagnetic pulse effects, and climatic effects, such as nuclear winter)
From page 13...
... Risk assessments are scaled to user requirements and can be used to address components of overall risk, or they can be used to assess the overall risks of a nuclear, radiological, chemical, or biological attack on the United States. Another key aspect of DHS's risk assessment effort is its interface with the consumers of these assessments: Development of the risk assessments has been an ongoing, community-driven process so as to ensure that the methodology and resultant outputs adequately address the needs of the Homeland Security Enterprise (HSE)


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