Carbon Utilization Infrastructure, Markets, and Research and Development A Final Report (2024) / Chapter Skim
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2 Priority Opportunities for CO2- or Coal WasteDerived Products in a Net-Zero Emissions Future
2 Priority Opportunities for CO2- or Coal WasteDerived Products in a Net-Zero Emissions Future
Pages 26-64
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Today, carbonbased chemical, fuel, and material products are dominantly manufactured with fossil carbon feedstocks,2 so at the end of life, their consumption, disposal, or decay adds net-positive CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Using alternative feedstocks that enable circular carbon flows for carbon-based products is a key strategy for reducing 1 While this chapter focuses on CO utilization market opportunities, priority products from coal waste are also considered, especially critical 2 minerals.
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emissions and integrated into industrial processes in a more sustainable way.3 Examples of carbon feedstocks with lower life cycle emissions include biomass, recycled or waste carbon products such as plastics, captured CO and CO2, biogas, and municipal solid waste.4 Another important class of materials that can use CO2 feedstocks is CO2-derived mineral carbonates incorporated into construction materials, which do not traditionally incorporate CO2, but where CO2 can be incorporated as long-duration stored carbon.5 During the transition to net-zero, an alternative to circular carbon feedstocks is the continued use of fossil feedstocks with compensatory capture and sequestration to prevent or remove an equivalent full life cycle amount of CO2 emissions from the atmosphere. This report is tasked with examining a circular carbon future, and so this possibility of linear fossil production with offsetting is noted but not explored in depth.
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shows a detailed description of the carbon embedded in the subset of chemicals and materials, which is the output of the chemical industry: chemicals and derived materials (see footnote 7)
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2.2 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES FOR CO2-DERIVED PRODUCTS 2.2.1 Factors That Impact Ease of Making Products from CO2 In principle, all hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals, and many other materials, including inorganic carbonates, elemental carbon materials, and plastics, can be synthesized from CO2. However, only some products and markets are likely to be attractive for investment in CO2 conversion processes, relative to other sustainable carbon feedstock alternatives.
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storage or Amount of CO2 (Gt per year, Market Driver and Priority Production in a per year, year of circular carbon used (tCO2/tonne estimated in Conversion Advantages of CO2 Product Class Products Net-Zero Future estimate) a product product)
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• CO2 storage nanotubes Biomass-derived • Substitution for Graphene elemental carbon higher-emitting materials products Coal waste • Enhanced performance opportunities Food and Spent microbes Low-impact Animal feed Circular 0.5–0.7 1.9 Biological • Defossilization of Animal Feed animal and plant 0.337 (2020) needed product food production 1.9 (2050)
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Future markets for short-lived, circular carbon products derived from CO2 will be dependent on the demand for fuels, chemicals and chemical intermediates, and other such products; by the potential to supply such products from different sustainable feedstocks and will reflect restructuring of chemical markets based on competition with zerocarbon substitutes. Many of today's carbon-containing products, including most fuels, chemicals, and plastics, are derived from fossil carbon (petroleum, natural gas, and coal)
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, manufacturing the product with other nonfossil carbon feedstocks like biomass or recycled carbon wastes, or offsetting fossil carbon emissions from the product life cycle using negative emission technologies, such as capturing and geologically storing an equivalent amount of CO2. Preparing for the transition to non-fossil-sourced chemicals production needs to factor in the risks to growth in product demand, as it will play a crucial role in research investments, and planning and deploying new supply chains and infrastructure to provide raw material streams.
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The right panel shows lower volume, primarily circular carbon products like chemicals, elemental carbon materials, and some high-volume durable storage materials that do not consume much CO2 in their production, like precast concrete. SOURCE: Adapted from Sick (2022b)
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Table 2-4 collects the assessment of priority products from CO2 utilization as examined in various studies, and their various applications in the economy. Some themes in priority products identified across studies include oxygenated chemicals like alcohols, aldehydes, and organic acids; chemical industry intermediates like CO, ethylene, and ethanol; chemicals with fuel applications like jet fuel, methanol, and gasoline; chemicals with organic carbonate groups, such as cyclic carbonates and polycarbonates and inorganic carbonates; and elemental carbon materials like carbon black and graphene.
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2022b Optoelectronics Catalysis Cyclic carbonates Solvent Bazzanella and Ausfelder 2017 Battery electrolyte Intermediate for polymer synthesis Diesel/jet fuel/hydrocarbon fuels Fuel Sick et al. 2022b Huang et al.
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(2022b) evaluated the utilization amount and market size for building materials, carbon additives, polymers, chemicals, food, and fuels between 2022 and 2050 in the context of the total addressable market for respective products.
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2.2.4 Markets for Materials from Coal Waste Chapter 9 provides a deeper discussion of market opportunities for products made from coal waste, which offer the additional benefits of environmental and land remediation. Single- to double-digit growth rates of billion-dollar markets are projected for products from coal waste, including critical minerals and metals, pigments, direct use in construction materials, and coal waste–derived carbon materials (Fortune Business Insights 2023a, 2023b; Grand View Research 2022; SkyQuest Technology 2024; Stoffa 2023; Straits Research 2022)
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. 2.2.5 Product-Specific Market Considerations As outlined in Table 2-1, this section explores some of the main product classes targeted for CO2 utilization (inorganic construction materials, fuels, polymers, chemicals and chemical intermediates, elemental carbon, and food and animal feed)
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Market inhibitors, such as local building codes and the cost and time required for testing and documentation can limit or prohibit the use of new materials, especially for small-scale producers, but are not fundamental inhibitors based on technical performance. Key market questions for future viability of CO2-derived inorganic carbonate building materials: Can new production technologies and reprocessing of waste materials overcome market inhibitors such as low profit margins, limited long-distance transportation of heavy, low-value commodities, and regulatory hurdles such as composition-based building codes?
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CC BY 4.0. 2.2.5.2 Fuels The global economy relies heavily on fossil fuels, with more than 80 percent of total energy from coal, oil, and natural gas (IEA 2019)
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What is the capacity to provide synthetic fuels in the context of competing demands for zero-carbon electricity and hydrogen? FIGURE 2-7 Synthetic, CO2-derived aviation fuels have several advantages that could support market acceptance by meeting critical market needs.
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The market introduction of polymers made with CO2 is facilitated not only by helping to defossilize the polymer industry but in particular by offering continued use of production facilities, improved recyclability, and the opportunity to provide entirely new performance characteristics. Key market questions for future viability of CO2-derived polymers: Can production costs be reduced, such as by co-location with CO2 emitters?
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Biomass is often more competitive for products requiring carboncarbon bonds, which are often already present in bio-derived carbon feedstocks. Both CO2- and biomass-derived materials are better suited to making oxygenated compounds, relative to fossil fuels.
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Some elemental carbon products are likely to be used at lower volume, but in high-value applications, like electronics. Others could be deployed in very high-volume applications, with lower value, such as in construction materials.
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Conversion of CO2 to carbon black could be pursued as a drop-in substitute for current production, but competition with incumbent producers will likely delay market penetration. Key market questions for the future viability of CO2-derived elemental carbon: Can new products overcome cost barriers and industry conservatism to replace carbon-emission-intensive metals like steel and aluminum in large-volume applications, particularly in the construction and automotive industry?
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However, the successful market introduction of products made from new carbon feedstocks depends on a variety of factors, including feedstock availability and access, suitable conversion technologies and infrastructure, industrial participants in the value chain, consumer demand and acceptance, and regulatory environments. Furthermore, commercial success will depend on cost, cost-reduction strategies, financial risk management, and the ability to consistently meet demand, especially in commodity markets.
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. Sections 2.3.1–2.3.8 detail important determinants of CO2 market developments -- namely cost, availability and access to feedstocks, technology and infrastructure, supply chains, consumer demand and acceptance, the regulatory environment, financial risks, and environmental and equity impacts.
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. For example, by 2050, meeting global aviation fuel demand with CO2 utilization is estimated to require about 21,000 production facilities with annual capacities of 100 million liters of jet fuel each and estimated to cost $4.8 trillion (Sick et al.
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The industrial gas and the oil and gas industries historically have led investments in CO2 supply chain development for merchant and enhanced oil recovery applications, respectively. The Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, representing 12 of the world's largest energy companies, is developing projects in regional, interconnected carbon capture, utilization, and storage supply chains at scale for industrial decarbonization (Oil and Gas Climate Initiative 2023)
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A summary of non-CO2 feedstock availability and readiness of conversion technologies is presented in Table I-2, in Appendix I Competing nonfossil carbon feedstocks from biological and recycled plastic streams have advantages and disadvantages relative to CO2 feedstocks.
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2.3.4 CO2 Utilization Technology and Infrastructure Development Switching materials production to new carbon feedstocks for chemicals, elemental carbon materials, and inorganic carbonates often requires substantial investments in new equipment and/or infrastructure. Upfront capital investment as well as the ongoing operating costs will impact the choice of new feedstock.
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2.3.6 The Regulatory Environment In the absence of a price or binding limit on carbon emissions, nonfossil alternatives in most cases will be more costly than fossil-derived products. Therefore, the market introduction and growth of different carbon feedstocks will depend critically on suitable policy support (Renewable Carbon Initiative 2022)
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2.3.8 Environmental and Equity Impacts A switch of carbon feedstock from fossil sources to alternatives should offer CO2 emissions benefits, but comprehensive LCAs that include broad and local societal factors must be conducted to understand the overall environmental impacts, as detailed in Chapter 3. Although some production capability for CO2- and coal waste–derived products could be based on adapted existing facilities, sourcing CO2 and hydrogen, along with the associated required fossil-free electricity, will add demands on land, water, and potentially the host communities (Beswick et al.
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. Track 1 refers to durable storage products with lifetimes of >100 years, and Track 2 refers to circular carbon products with lifetimes of <100 years.
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Long-lived products will contribute toward a net-zero future as carbon sinks; short-lived products will be integrated in a circular carbon economy that runs without the need to add new fossil carbon. Additionally, entering the field of CO2 conversion and use of coal waste for durable carbon products can open new markets.
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, and potential negative emissions with direct air or direct ocean capture and conversion to long-lived products. For coal waste, combined benefits can be environmental remediation, access to critical minerals, and long-lived carbon products.
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Related s tudies should be conducted to close information gaps to realize market opportunities for CO2 conversion to (a) meet national needs for carbon products, (b)
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2023. "Carbon Capture Coalition Endorses the Bipartisan Captured Carbon Utilization ParityAct." February 28.
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https://www.eenews.net/articles/the-carbon-removal-project-that-puts-communities-in-the-drivers-seat. Circular Carbon Network.
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2022. "Emerging CO2 Utilization Technologies for Construction Materials: A Review." Journal of CO2 Utilization 65(November)
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2023. "Custodians of Carbon: Creating a Circular Carbon Economy." Frontiers in Energy Research 11.
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2022a. "CO2 Utilization and Market Size Projection for CO2-Treated Construction Materials." Frontiers in Climate 4(May)
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World Economic Forum.
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