Understanding and Preventing Violence, Volume 4 Consequences and Control (1994) / Chapter Skim
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Predicting Violent Behavior and Classifying Violent Offenders
Predicting Violent Behavior and Classifying Violent Offenders
Pages 217-295
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From page 217... ...
. Although such factors are pertinent for predicting the occurrence of violence, this paper focuses on predicting parameters of individual criminal careers, in particular: · the prevalence of violent persons in a study population {e.g., the percent of juveniles in the United States who have ever committed an act of violence)
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From page 218... ...
; · the persistence for durations of violent persons' histories of committing violent acts ie.~. length in years from the commission of the first act of violence to the last act of violence!
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In postdiction studies, data are collected describing various stages in a person's life or criminal career, but the dependent variables being estimated in the statistical analysis {e.g., individual crime commission rates during the previous yearJ describe behavior that is contemporaneous with some or alit of the data items used as independent variables. In short, the behavior being estimated does not lie in the future with respect to the "predictors." A typical purpose of postdiction research is to devise ways
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From page 220... ...
search, classification may be undertaken to estimate the prevalence of violent persons, or categories of violent persons, in specific populations; to construct typologies that assist in understanding personal and social characteristics of categories of violent and nonviolent persons; to learn more about causes, correlates, and stability associated with categories of violent persons; to diagnose individuals for purposes of planning treatment; and to assign individuals to groups for purposes of case management.2 The purposes of prediction may be similar, but prediction involves future behavior. Predictions of future violence may be made to determine whether subjects pose a risk to the community when released from criminal justice or mental health restraints; to investigate the causal relationships between events at two or more points in time; or to project future demands on criminal justice and health care resources.
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From page 221... ...
or by examining the procedures used in the original research to select the independent variables logical content validity". Examples of procedures that may be used to quantify the validity of self-reported data are measuring consistency among responses to logically identical or reversed questions, examining the extent or pattern of missing ;blankJ responses, developing "lie" scales Sets of questions whose responses can be combined into an index of untruthfuInessl, and specifically asking respondents whether or not they are telling the truth.
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From page 222... ...
When histories of arrests for violent crimes are studied without addressing the question of what they represent, or by indirection leaving the implication that the data indicate whether or not the person is violent, construct validity is violated. Similarly, short follow-up periods for collecting data about persons predicted to be violent or not violent may not permit obtaining valid measures of the construct of interest.
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From page 223... ...
Measures available for estimating the reliability of cIassification or prediction research include internal consistency, interrater reliability, and test-retest reliability. Internal Consistency Measuring internal consistency differs from a consistency check for validity of responses to logically equivalent or reversed items, mentioned above.
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From page 224... ...
A considerable body of literature on criminal justice prediction research bemoans the typically Tow levels of accuracy achieved by prediction models and the lack of standardized or commonly accepted statistics for comparing the relative quality of different prediction instruments or methodologies, especially when applied to different populations. See Gottfredson and Gottfredson jl988b:252)
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From page 225... ...
For example, people walking in a city street at night are likely to plan their routes based on their understanding of types of violent offenders and estimates of their prevalence in certain neighborhoods; they will react to strangers in the area by crossing the street or walking faster, based on their own informal classification of the
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From page 226... ...
Violent persons are classified by various agencies in the criminal justice system and the public mental health system, and by private psychiatric/psychological service providers. The populations served by these classifiers often overlap, but their cIassification methods are typically quite different, as are the factors they consider important in regard to violent behavior.
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From page 227... ...
Two-stage prediction studies, in which the probability of selection is estimated first and then the outcome is estimated, can help reduce these types of ambiguities in research results. However, there are not many studies in the existing violence prediction and classification literature that control for potential selection biases in this way.
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From page 228... ...
other factors have a stronger association with their crime commission rates and persistence. Conversely, correlates of persistence and rates of committing violent crimes among those who engage in violent behavior may not be correlated with participation in violent behavior.
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From page 229... ...
However, unlike Tay-Sachs disease, the current state of knowledge is not even close to having an adequate understanding of the causes of violence that would be needed to cIassify violent offenders and to predict violence with great accuracy. CLASSIFICATION PURPOSES AND POPULATIONS CLASSIFIED The "art" of classifying violent offenders is reminiscent of the traditional story of the classification of the elephant by a team of blind people each one measuring a different part and variously describing the ear, trunk, leg, tail, or torso.
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From page 230... ...
The examples chosen for presentation are not meant to be comprehensive but are illustrative of methods that have experienced continued application in research or practice. TYPES OF CLASSIFICATION Psychological Tests Rapid Assessments A large number of psychological tests provide rapid diagnoses for a spectrum of psychological abnormalities {Corcoran and Fischer, 1987)
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Psychological Tests Mu~tivariate Scaling Techniques Some standard psychological tests include measures of psychological or mental status associated with violent behavior, whereas other tests have been constructed specifically to classify violent persons. In clinical or correctional settings, standard tests often supplement violence-specific tests.
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From page 232... ...
The inmate typology, which has widespread] use in correctional institutions iClements, 19861, originally was developed by using MMPI profiles of a sample of youthful offenders in a federal prison {Megaree, 1977; Megargee and Bohn, 19791.
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From page 233... ...
Computer-programmed analyses of the MMPI scores were found to classify only two-thirds of the cases into the 10 types; the remaining classifications require clinical judgments for which interrater reliability is poor. Attraction to Sexual Aggression (ASAJ Scale The ASA scale {Malamuth, 1989)
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From page 234... ...
By using a Tower cutoff score jl66l, overall ciassification rates were improved and false positives almost eliminated; however, the number of false negatives increased ;MiTner and Wimberly, 19801. MiTner and colleagues jl984J followed up 190 of 200 at-risk parents ilO refused)
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From page 235... ...
Some DSM-III-R classes are residual categories to be used after other diagnoses are ruled out. For example, intermittent explosive disorder, characterized by violent episodes, can only be used after ruling out "psychotic disorders, Organic PersonaTity Syndrome, Antisocial and Borderline Personality Disorders, Conduct Disorder, or intoxication with a psychoactive substance" American Psychiatric Association, 198 7:321 J
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Level of security required is usually based on both public risk and institutional risk. Public risk is commonly assessed on the basis of information about the conviction crime, prior convictions for violent crimes, and history of institutional escapes.
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From page 237... ...
Classification typically is the clinical judgment of a correctional staff member, guided by the information obtained from these sources. Federal prisons and other prisons with a psychologist on staff may use standard psychological tests such as the MMPI {described aboveJ or other multivariate scaled psychological tests; however, most jails and many prisons do not have the resources for extensive psychologicai or psychiatric testing of inmates for classification purposes {Clements, 1986J.
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From page 238... ...
The findings of these seminal studies are now considered axiomatic: · Nonwhite youths are more likely to be arrested for violent crimes than white youths: nonwhites in the 1945 cohort were arrested 15 times more often than whites for violent crime; those in the 1958 cohort, 7 times more often. · A small subgroup of chronic offenders who were arrested for five or more offenses of any type constituted only 18 percent of the 1945 cohort but were arrested for 71 percent of the cohort's recorded murders, 73 percent of rapes, 82 percent of robberies, and 70 percent of aggravated assaults.
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From page 239... ...
and dangerous j committing violent crimes)
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From page 240... ...
For inmates with mental health problems, differences appeared among those with substance abuse histories, those with psychiatric histories, and those with both. Inmates with psychiatric histories were more likely than other inmates to be more serious frenzied violent offenders in terms of their conviction crimes, their chronicity of being arrested for violent crimes, and the extent of injury inflicted in their conviction crime.
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typology of violent persons has been constructed to distinguish between two types of suspects in violent crimes. Based on analysis of past cases, it distinguishes between disorganized asocial offenders and organized nonsocial offenders "Holmes, 19891.
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. Se~f-Reports Se~f-Reports Collected Through Surveys of National Samples Selfreports of violent offenses based on national samples have helped confirm many findings about the classification of violent offenders based initially on small samples or criminal justice statistics.
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From page 243... ...
and correlates of these different dimensions. Although the reliability and validity of self-reports from offenders are never close to perfect, they have been adequate to demonstrate strong relationships such as those between drug dealing and committing violent crimes {Chaiken and Chaiken, 1982; Nurco et al., 19881.
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From page 244... ...
, penile tumescence in reaction to stories of rape and consensual intercourse, scores on several rapid assessment tests including the Acceptance of Interpersonal Violence Scale and the Sex-Role Stereotyping Scale; scores on several subscaTes of multivariate tests including a dominance subscaTe and the Psychoticism Scale of the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire and self-reports of a variety of violent acts actually committed. With the exception of sex-role stereotyping, all these measures were significantly correlated with the measure of aggression toward female subjects but not toward male subjects.
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From page 245... ...
Moreover, interviews with the parents of children being assessed often reveal important observational information about the parents themselves. CONGRUENT FINDINGS ABOUT INDIVIDUALS CEASSIFIED AS VIOLENT PERSONS Although practitioners and researchers often disagree about classifying persons who have committed relatively few violent acts, congruent findings have merged across disciplines about offenders who are relatively extreme on all dimensions of violent behavior the rates at which they commit violent acts, the seriousness of the acts they commit, and their persistence.
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From page 246... ...
Conversely, many people who have committed violent crimes are either inept or uninterested in trying to conceal their crimes. These offenders are likely to be arrested for nearly every crime they commit, and classifications based on official record data are likely to falsely classify them as high-rate offenders {false positives)
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From page 247... ...
Occurrence mockers predict the probability that a violent event will occur within a specified period of time, faiJure-time models predict the length of time until occurrence of a violent event, and rate models predict the number of violent events to be committed within a specified time period. In any of these three approaches, the major methodological problems that arise often involve censoring events, sample selection bias, or both.
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From page 248... ...
Construction Size and composition of the construction sample Validation Size and composition of the validation sample Criterion Definition of the criterion variable Follow-up Length of the follow-up period Fail rate Percentage engaging in violence according to the criterion variable Accuracy Accuracy of prediction using the validation sample, when available, otherwise using the construction sample; reported as false positives, false negatives, and improvement over chance {IOCla Significant variables Variables that were reported as being statistically significant in the prediction Belenko, Chin, and Fagin ; l 9 8 9 J Construction 3,139 defendants arrested for "crack" cocaine drug law violations and 3,204 arrested for "other" cocaine drug law violations Validation None Criterion Arrest for a violent crime Follow-up 2 years Fail rate Mean arrest rate of 0.17 for crack drug law violators and 0.09 for other cocaine drug law violators. Accuracy 64% true positives, 37% false positives Significant variables Age, race, total prior arrests, prior arrest for violent offense, arrest for crack rather than cocaine drug law Black and Spinks {19851 Construction Validation Criterion Follow-up Fail rate Accuracy Significant variables Cocozza and Steadman {1974J 125 mentally disordered offenders None Occurrence of an assault 5 years 13 of 125 {10%)
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From page 249... ...
Accuracy 69% false positives, 5% false negatives, -4% IOCb Significant variables Age, juvenile record, prior arrests, prior convictions for violent crime, severity of presenting offense Cook and Nagin {1979) Construction 4,154 individuals who had been arrested for a crime of violence {murder, rape, assault and robbery)
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From page 250... ...
Significant variables Various, depending on criterion variable, including poor school adjustment, general tendency toward delinquent behavior, family background, miscellaneous indicators of risk taking, being nervous and withdrawn, and size and intelligence Garrison {1984) Construction Validation Criterion Follow-up Fail rate Accuracy Significant variables Holland, Holt, and Beckett {1982J 100 male children treated in a psychiatric treatment facility None Intensive physical attack on other persons 5 hours per week for 2 years 44% of 1,038 aggressive incidents were violent acts Reported as "fairly low" and only marginally better than chance Age, victim status, events precipitating Construction 198 adult offenders placed on probation Validation None Criterion Arrest for armed robbery, aggravated assault, forcible Follow-up Fail rate Accuracy Significant variables Howell and Pugliesi {1988 rape, or homicide 32 months 22 of 198 {11%J IOC= 1%c Age and prior convictions for nonviolent crimes Construction 930 married and cohabitating men Validation None Criterion Minor or severe violence against a spouse Follow-up 1 year Fail rate 177 of 930 {19%)
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PREDICTING VIOLENT BEHAVIOR AND CLASSIFYING VIOLENT OFFENDERS / 251 TABLE 1 ~Continued) Fail Rate 46 of 239 {29%~ Accuracy 41% false positive, 6% false negative, 18% IOC, r2 = .34 Significant variables Age, prior criminal record, prior arrests for violent crimes, number of prior violent incidents, assault as reason for hospitalization, family interactions, ongoing social relationships, assaultive when drinking, suicide attempts Klassen and O'Connor ~1989b~ Construction 251 male inpatients considered to be potentially violent Validation 265 male inpatients considered to be potentially violent Criterion Arrest for a violent crime or readmission to the mental health center for an act of violence Follow-up Up to 12 months Fail rate 74 of 251 {29%~ in the construction sample Accuracy 48% false positive, 17% false negative, 13% IOC, 0.36 RIOC Significant variables Early family quality, current intimate relationships, prior arrest history, admission history, assault in the presenting problem Malamuth {1986~ Construction 155 male volunteers Validation None Criterion Self-report scale of sexual aggression Follow-up Not applicable Fail rate Not applicable Accuracy r2=.45 Significant variables Dominance as a sexual motive, hostility toward women, attitudes facilitating violence, sexual experience, and sexual arousal in response to observed rape Menzies, Webster, and Sepa jak ~ 1985 ~ Construction 211 patients at a pretrial forensic clinic Validation None Criterion 11-point scale of violence Follow-up Variable, up to 2 years Fail rate Not reported Accuracy r2 = .12 Significant variables Factor scores: tolerance, capacity for empathy, capacity for change, and hostility continued on next page
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From page 252... ...
and 90% false positives, 6% false negatives, and-3% IOC {in the hospital) Significant variables For hospital assaultiveness: age, race, alcohol problems, juvenile record; for community assaultiveness: prior arrests for violent crimes and age at first hospitalization
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To compute predictions attributable to statistical analysis, the number of correct predictions {success and failure J is divided by the size of the sample. The IOC equals the percentage of correct predictions attributed to statistical analysis minus the percentage of correct predictions attributed to chance.
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From page 254... ...
. If the probability of a violent act occurring increases with the length of time at risk to commit violent acts, controlling for each person's time at risk would seem to be important when predicting violence.
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From page 255... ...
Analyzing data to distinguish between unfettered human behavior and consequences of social control is no easy task, and there is no absolute standard to judge whether an analyst has done an adequate job. Nevertheless, ignoring the problem by simply asserting that one's analysis pertains to violent behavior, without considering or mentioning the ways in which the study subjects may have been restrained from violent acts, is almost certain to muddle predictions of violence.
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From page 256... ...
However, because discriminate analysis and OLS regression have proved to be robust in other, similar applications, we doubt that they have any important effect on the conclusions of prediction studies. Dependent Variables With Lower Limits We are less sanguine about using OLS regression when the dependent variable has a Tower limit, such as occurs with the number of violent events during a follow-up period.
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From page 257... ...
Another is to use a different criterion variable in the construction sample than is pertinent for the validation sample. Occurrence PREDICTING VIOLENT BEHAVIOR The discussion of studies' substantive and statistical limitations in the previous section is not intended to condemn the existing body of literature.
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From page 258... ...
with future violence. Some of these were criminal record variables: number of arrests for disturbing the peace, number of arrests for violent crimes during the last year, number of violent incidents during the last year, and assault as a reason for the hospital admission.
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From page 259... ...
Of these 251, 74 had been "violent." The authors report that the multiple r was .45, with a correct classification of 74 percent, a false positive rate of 45 percent, and a false negative rate of 19 percent. By chance, the false positive rate would be 30 percent and the false negative rate would be 70 percent, so the predictions were considerably better than chance.
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From page 260... ...
. The equation predicting community assaultiveness included two variables: {11 number of prior arrests for violent crimes and j2)
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From page 261... ...
Cocozza and Steadman found that violence could be predicted using two factors: the Legal Dangerousness Scale ALMS; a composite of juvenile record, previous arrests, previous convictions for violent crimes, and the severity of the offense that resulted in confinement at Baxter)
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From page 262... ...
Pagan (1989J This study used a discriminate analysis to predict a rearrest for violent crimes among 3,139 defendants who were arrested for crimes related to "crack" cocaine between August 1986 and October 1986, and among 3,204 defendants who were arrested for crimes related to cocaine between 1983 and 1984. The follow-up period was two years.
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From page 263... ...
11989b:603J conclude that "the psychobiological variables as such or in combination with the behavioral variables had more predictive power for the outcome than any combination of behavioral variables." Also, consistent with the Tow blood glucose nadir, the researchers observed that without exception these offenders committed their crimes while under the influence of alcohol. Black and Spinks (1985J Black and Spinks analyzed recidivism for assault during a five-year follow-up period for 125 men who were discharged into the community from Broadmore hospital {EnglandJ between 1960 and 1965.
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From page 264... ...
In the total sample, 19 percent of the men admitted "either minor or severe violence in the past year against their spouse." The authors analyzed the cases of 763 employed men and, separately, the cases of 960 men, some of whom were employed and the rest of whom were unemployed. Variables used in this study were occupational group {blue or white collard, self-reported economic strain, age {39 or younger versus 40 or olderl, parental modeling ino violent model and violent modell, and employment status.
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From page 265... ...
It is not surprising that in this study, violencewhether measured in the institution or in the community was not correlated with the inmate's classification. However, the out come variables used in the study are imperfect measures of violence; riot participation is not a typical form of institutional violence, and the most active violent offenders are also those most likely to commit nonviolent crimes.
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From page 266... ...
The explanatory variables were type of weapon {gun, other, and noneJ; prior arrests for violent crimes None, 1, 2-3, and 4 or moreJ; age {20 or younger, 21 through 29, and olderJ; and some control variables intended to mitigate the problems of missing information about time in prison during the follow-up period. For robbery and assault at the initial arrest, findings were statistically significant that rearrest for a violent crime increased with the number of prior arrests for crimes of violence and decreased with age.
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From page 267... ...
Independent variables were the number of prior convictions for crimes of violence, the number of prior convictions for other crimes, and age. The authors report that rearrest for a crime of violence could be predicted from prior arrests for nonviolent crimes and from the offender's age.
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From page 268... ...
When M corresponds to the occurrence of the nth violent crime, the analyst attempts to explain the time between the nth and in+list violent crimes. When M corresponds to the occurrence of any crime, the analysis attempts to explain the time from that crime to a violent crime.
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From page 269... ...
Rhodes did not report the predictive accuracy of his regressions using violence as the criterion variable. However, the statistics presented permit determining his predictions' ability to distinguish between those who will and those who will not be arrested for violent crimes.
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From page 270... ...
Her probability of being arrested for a violent crime during the five years is almost zero. Consider an offender who appears likely to recidivate: black, mate, age 20, two incarcerations prior to his current federal conviction for robbery, four prior convictions not resulting in incarceration, drug dependence, under supervision at the time of this federal conviction, and unemployec]
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From page 271... ...
This estimating procedure was applied separately to different violent "transitions." That is, Weiner initially examined the time from the first violent event to the second violent event, where the second event was considered censored when only one violent event had been observed prior to the subject's eighteenth birthday. Then he examined the second transition, that is, the time from the seconc]
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From page 272... ...
A major problem with this analysis is its hancIling of incarceration that occurs after the first violent crime in a transition. Weiner was unable to collect data about the length of time that an offender was confined cluring the follow-up period, so the variable "time until recidivism for a violent crime" was likely to be measurer]
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From page 273... ...
At the time of the initial interview, only 24 percent of boys and girls reported no violent acts; 38 percent reported 1-4 acts; and another 25 percent reported 5-29 acts. At follow-up, violence was somewhat less frequent: 46 percent reported no violent acts; 27 percent reported 1-4 violent acts, and 20 percent reported 5-25 violent acts.
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From page 274... ...
In addition, these fifteen items were factor analyzed, yielding four factors with eigenvalues greater than 1.0 that collectively accounted for more than 72 percent of the variance in the independent variables. To construct a dependent variable, "for each patient a profile was constructed cataloging all {not only violent)
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From page 275... ...
A serious problem is that the criterion variable was a composite of violent acts that were committed by people who, during the follow-up period, spent different times in prison, in hospitals, and on the street. With such a criterion variable, it is impossible to disentangle the propensity toward violent behavior from adjustments to different institutional settings.
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From page 276... ...
MaJamuth (1986J Malamuth reported on a self-report study of sexual aggression among 155 mate volunteers {80 percent were college students.J The volunteers were asked to respond to a scale of sexual aggression developed by Koss and Oros ~ 1982J. Malamuth {1986:956J does not provide details of this scale in his study but states, "It assesses a continuum of sexual aggression including psychological pressure, physical coercion, attempted rape, and rape." As explanatory variables, Malamuth uses the following: a measure of dominance as a sexual motive, a scale of hostility toward women, a scale that measured attitudes facilitating violence Acceptance of Interpersonal ViolenceJ, a measure of antisocial characteristics, and sexual experience.
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From page 277... ...
. conducted a longitudinal study to gauge the extent to which a variety of measures including those reflecting general delinquency, attitudes about rape, and sex-role stereotyping predicted sexual aggression.
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From page 278... ...
It is unclear why victim status was included as an independent variable, because this would seem to be a variable of choice. Garrison {1984:233)
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From page 279... ...
The criterion variable changes markedly across these studies. There are major differences in the definition of violence, in the periods during which violence might occur, in the settings in which violence might occur, in the precision with which violence is measured, in the numbers and types of explanatory variables available to the researcher, and in the availability and size of validation samples.
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From page 280... ...
Family background variables appear to be valuable when predicting adult violence based on childhood records; they are of limited use in predicting repeated violence by adults. Criminal record variables are pertinent when predicting violent behavior within five years for offenders released from prison, but are of little use when predicting violence within a few weeks of release from a mental health clinic.
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From page 281... ...
Given that most violent acts are not recorded in official records, we may never be able to develop predictions that do not suffer from a high proportion of false negatives. RESEARCH AGENDA One of our original goals for this review was to compare findings across studies and report the relative accuracy and strength of different types of factors for classification and prediction.
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From page 282... ...
More specifically, the definitions of outcome variables need to be standardized along the following dimensions: · The length of time at risk Adjusting for social restraint · Specification of the intended period of prediction Short or long termJ · The extent of physical harm or potential harm associated with violent acts, if uninterrupted E.g., distinguishing between an open-handed slap to an adult and bludgeoning with a blunt weapon) · Specification of a relationship between the measure of violence and the actual violent behavior partially captured by the measure E.g., adjusting for probabilities of police intervention, arrest, conviction, or self-initiated hospitalizations.
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From page 283... ...
Probabilistic predictions can be absolutely correct, but useless, if they are in a practical sense close to the base rate. Nonetheless, this appears to be a promising area for research.
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From page 284... ...
A benefit-cost analysis is an inescapable aspect of judging the adequacy of violence prediction, but when the benefits and costs are so elusive, the analysis is outside the realm of science and is appropriately in the domain of politics and public policy. Obviously practitioners should not be expected to Took at models with numerous Greek letters and parameters and then apply them correctly, but by refining instruments that help assess violent persons probabilistically along several dimensions, behavioral and medical scientists can help shape practices that consider a variety of options for dealing with violent persons rather than a simple choice of two alternatives.
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From page 285... ...
10 Alternatively, the prediction might be made conditional on a specific form of social constraint, such as intensive parole supervision or weekly reporting to a mental health clinic. 11 In predicting violence, one is not uninterested in social responses and whether they control or fait to control violent behavior, but it is important to distinguish the behavior itself from the effectiveness of social control.
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From page 286... ...
15 The derivative of the logistic regression, when evaluated at the mean, indicates that subjects who suffered physical abuse as children were .08 more likely than others to commit violent acts, and that subjects who suffered neglect as children were .05 more likely than others to commit violent acts. 16 Other drug use was not recorded for this 1979 cohort.
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From page 287... ...
Chin, and T Fagan 1989 Typologies of Criminal Careers Among Crack Arrestees.
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From page 288... ...
Roth and C Visher, eds., Criminal Careers and "Career" Criminals.
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From page 289... ...
1989 Drugs and violent crime.
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From page 290... ...
1989 Profiling Violent Crimes: An Investigative Tool. Newbury Park, Calif.: Sage.
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From page 291... ...
Friedman 1976 Characteristics of self-reported violent offenders vs. court identified violent offenders.
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From page 292... ...
Webster 1989 Mental disorder and violent crime.
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From page 293... ...
lacewitz 1984 Predictive validity of the child abuse potential inventory. fournal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 52j5J:879-884.
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From page 294... ...
Pp. 35-138 in Violent Crime, Violent Criminals.
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From page 295... ...
PREDICTING VIOLENT BEHAVIOR AND CLASSIFYING VIOLENT OFFENDERS / 295 and M Wolfgang, eds., Pathways to Criminal Violence.
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