Demography of Aging (1994) / Chapter Skim
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9 Geographic Concentration, Migration, and Population Redistribution Among the Elderly
9 Geographic Concentration, Migration, and Population Redistribution Among the Elderly
Pages 319-355
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From page 319... ...
Galle This chapter examines what is known about patterns of geographic distribution (and redistribution) of the elderly population, focusing mainly on the United States.
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The second section focuses on patterns of elderly and nonelderly population redistribution and on patterns of migration that contribute to redistribution at various spatial levels of analysis. The third section examines the results of research about migration, focusing on both elderly and nonelderly migration behavior, each of which holds implications for patterns of population redistribution by age.
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The former provides a better measure of old-age concentration than the latter to the extent that the age distributions under comparison are differentially affected by changing age patterns of migration, which might occur as a result of substantial net international immigration to some states but not others. In general, it is increasingly important to consider both measures as the volumes of net migration and net international migration increase and as the age structures of in-migrants and out-migrants, and of immigrants and emigrants, change in relation to that of the host population.
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First, all regions of the country experienced growth rates among their elderly populations between 1980 and 1990 that exceeded their rates of population growth (see also Siegel, 1993~. Thus, in all parts of the country, the number of elderly grew faster than the rest of the population.
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It is also interesting that at the level of aggregation of states the data reveal the complex nature of the processes generating patterns of elderly population distribution. For example, several of the states of the industrial midwest (e.g., Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan)
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Similarly, New York's figures are also influenced by immigration, with a substantial negative net internal migration balanced by positive net international migration. Patterns by Size and Type of Place The elderly population is also variously distributed according to size and type of place.
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As noted above, the age structures of states and regions are affected by fertility, the age pattern of mortality, the age pattern of net internal migration, and the age pattern of net international migration. As a result of the former two processes acting alone, the proportion of elderly within an area can change over time without any geographic mobility occurring.
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It is important to note that this latter component, the aging-in-place component, will itself consist of fertility, mortality, internal migration, and international migration subcomponents. The latter two factors influence the size of the nonelderly population "at risk" of reaching age 65.
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From page 327... ...
This difference in behavior by age emphasizes the need to adopt a life-course migration perspective in the assessment of the influence of migration on the aging patterns of states and regions, especially to the extent that nonelderly groups display different life-course migration patterns than the elderly (Frey, 1986~. In addition to differing in number and in the propensity to migrate, the elderly are more focused than the nonelderly on their preferred migration destinations, which has implications for population redistribution (Rogers 1992b)
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What types of migration behavior contribute to these redistribution patterns? The increasing concentrations of both elderly and nonelderly in the South and West, and the decreasing concentrations in the Northeast and Midwest, derive by definition mostly from interstate migration.
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GEOGRAPHIC CONCENTRATION AND MIGRATION Moving Within Coun~des 30 0 ~ 1 1966-1971 iZO~: = s 5 1 s 25 35 4s 55 65 7s 1 331 Moving Between Counties Within a State 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 .0 N\-' ~,/ ~ %~,^= .
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(Rogers, 1992b; DeAre, 19921. As we note below, patterns such as this have led to the formulation of life-course conceptualizations of elderly migration that envision the likelihood of elderly movement tied to significant changes in life situation (Litwak and Longino, 19871.
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The industrial structure of a local labor market is thus not irrelevant for the migration behavior of either the young or the old; rather different sets of factors become attractions for different age sectors of the population. For example, King (1978)
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One example of how this may affect elderly migration is that as retirement age approaches, the household's "demand" for better climatological and environmental factors may increase vis-a-vis other factors (such as a stable, well-paying job)
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The changing patterns in the spatial distribution and concentration of the elderly are thus determined in large part not by what happens to the elderly but by what determines the migration and redistribution patterns of the nonelderly population. Although we have commented on factors that may promote movement of the older population from one area to another, and pointed out that the factors determining migration among the elderly are substantially different from those in the younger population, these factors are often overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of migration streams involving the nonelderly population (Frey, 19861.
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, migration among the elderly is characterized by a great deal of heterogeneity in both the patterns of and the motivations for residential changes. As of yet, our understanding of the motivations for and patterns of residential changes in later life is insufficiently developed especially in reference to subgroups of the population such as blacks, Hispanics, or those over the age of 85 to provide a firm indication of the degree to which conceptualizations of elderly migration stages correspond to actual patterns of behavior.
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Recent evidence from the 1990 Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA) confirms substantial heterogeneity in motives for migration in old age (De Jong et al., 1992~.
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At the same time, the great majority of older singles continue to live alone even when faced with significantly diminished health, suggesting substantial variations in patterns of geographic mobility. In addition, the LSOA studies demonstrate the impact of numerous other variables, including race and ethnicity, on patterns of living arrangements, suggesting that any simple typology of reasons for moving may oversimplify the reality faced by older adults.
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From page 339... ...
They involve for specific geographic units not only net elderly aging-in-place and net elderly migration, but also the natural increase and net migration of the nonelderly. Empirical studies of these components on a comparative basis have been rather limited until recently by the lack of adequate time-series data, especially for developing countries.
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have noted that the share of a country's elderly population living in rural areas is greater than that in urban areas in most developing countries, with the exception of several heavily urbanized countries of Latin America. Nonetheless, the overall trends leading to increased urbanization in most countries characterize the aged population as well.
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An International Elderly Migration Project conducted in the late 1980s enabled Rogers and a network of international scholars to assess this model of elderly migration and population redistribution. Rogers et al.
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In spite of the efforts that have been made to generate models of typical sequences of elderly population redistribution and migration flows, along with changing levels of elderly migration propensity, it is still the case that comparative research shows that considerable intercountry variability exists. Notwithstanding the difficulties inherent in studying these phenomena cross-nationally, which arise from varying geographic units of analysis and definitions of migration, the general features of the temporal model of transitions seem to hold for many industrialized countries.
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It is evident that aging has implications for these costs, but again, to our knowledge, little research has been conducted into the quantitative impact of population aging for state- and city-level changes in health and social service costs. By the same token, research is lacking on how much difference the various components of population aging (including the age pattern of net migration)
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Although research on the determinants of living arrangements and changes in residential patterns among the elderly has increased in recent years, hypotheses linking reasons and motives for migration to patterns of residential change among the elderly need more systematic testing at the individual level of analysis. As yet, for example, we do not know whether older persons who suffer a serious decline in functional capacity and who require assistance with ADLs are more likely to move closer to their adult children than elderly who are functionally independent.
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77-96 in A Rogers, ea., Elderly Migration and Population Redistribution: A Comparative Perspective.
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In A Rogers, ea., Elderly Migration and Population Redistribution: A Comparative Per spective.
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163-180 in A Rogers, ea., Elderly Migration and Population Redistribution: A Comparative Perspective.
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Clifford 1981 Components of change in the residential concentration of the elderly population: 1950-1975. Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences 36:480-489.
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Watkins, and J.A. Woodward 1990 Interregional elderly migration and population redistribution in four industrialized countries: A comparative analysis.
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Hogan 1992 Take the money and sun: Elderly migration as a consequence of gains in unaffordable housing market. Journal of Gerontology 47:197-203.
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Worobey, J.L., and R.J. Angel 1990a Functional capacity and living arrangements of unmarried elderly persons.
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6,692 (11.4) East North Central 4,493 (10.8)
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, Percentage, and Percent Change of Persons 65 and Over, 85 and Over, and Median Age in the United States by Region, Division, and State, 1980-1990 65 and Over 353 Median Percent Percent Age, Region19801990 Change19801990 Change 1990 Michigan9121,108 21.582107 30.9 32.6 (9~8)
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, Percentage, and Percent Change of Persons 65 and Over, 85 and Over, and Median Age in the United States by Region, Division, and State, 1980-1990 65 and Over 85 and Over Median Percent Percent Age, Region19801990 Change19801990 Change 1990 Georgia517654 26.63957 45.2 31.6 (9.5)
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, Percentage, and Percent Change of Persons 65 and Over, 85 and Over, and Median Age in the United States by Region, Division, and State, 1980-1990 355 65 and Over 85 and Over Median Percent Percent Age, Region 1980 1990 Change 1980 1990 Change 1990 Arizona Utah Pacific New Mexico 116 (8 9)
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