GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis (1994) / Chapter Skim
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2 THE GOALS PROGRAM AND ITS SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES
2 THE GOALS PROGRAM AND ITS SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES
Pages 13-20
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From page 13... ...
shown useful skill in predicting interannual variations in the tropical Pacific, specifically certain aspects of ENSO. Connections to other tropical oceans have not been made despite tantalizing indications of precursors to ENSO arising over the Indian Ocean (Barrett, 1983)
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14 go .
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Although no dynamical phenomenon of the climate system on seasonal-to-interannual time scales has been identified at middle and high latitudes comparable to ENSO, prospects for improving interannual climate prediction are likely to be enhanced with more accurate models of global upper-ocean and land-surface processes. The improved specification of the initial state of the global ocean-atmosphere-land climate system through the assimilation of new types of climate data will also likely enhance predictive capability.
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From page 16... ...
3. GOALS would support CLIVAR research objectives in that program's attempt to observe and understand the mechanisms of global interannual variability, advance global predictability on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, and develop a capability for global prediction on these time scales.
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From page 17... ...
For all of these reasons, it is proposed that the GOALS program should now be launched, with the ultimate objective of observing, understanding, and predicting, to the limits feasible, total climate system variations on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. Useful predictions of climate anomalies on these time scales would have economic and social benefits that could be realized immediately.
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From page 18... ...
SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES The ultimate scientific objectives of the GOALS program would be to understand global climate variability on seasonal-to-interannual time scales; to determine the extent to which these variations are predictable; to develop the observational, theoretical, and computational means to predict these variations; and to make experimental predictions within the limits proven feasible. The GOALS program would benefit greatly from the prior efforts of TOGA to establish an ENSO modeling and prediction capability and to establish the TOGA observing system.
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From page 19... ...
In particular, what is the role of tropical SST anomalies in perturbing the extratropical atmosphere, and thereby generating extratropical SST anomalies? For what regions of the globe can accurate predictions of tropical SST anomalies be translated into skillful regional climate forecasts one or more seasons in advance?
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