GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis (1994) / Chapter Skim
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APPENDIX A: PRESENT STATUS OF SHORT TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION
APPENDIX A: PRESENT STATUS OF SHORT TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION
Pages 75-82
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From page 75... ...
In addition, predictions are being made of the future evolution of aspects of ENSO using coupled models along with the wind and thermal data collected by the TOGA observing system. The basic concept exploited in ENSO prediction is that oceanatmosphere instabilities occur in the tropics at large spatial scales and low temporal frequencies.
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From page 76... ...
However, the reliability of model estimates as approximations of the coupled climate system's real predictability increases with the number of other features of the real system that are accurately simulated by the model in question. Thus, predictability estimates should be pursued by observational studies across a complete hierarchy of models, from the simplest mechanistic ones to the most highly resolved GCMs.
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From page 77... ...
To initialize the ZC model, the observed monthly FSU-analyzed ship wind field for the Pacific is converted to surface stress specified over the model Pacific. Then, the atmosphere is coupled to the ocean, the system generates its own surface wind and SST fields, and the coupled model is subsequently allowed to run freely.
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From page 78... ...
A marked seasonal reduction in skill in predicting SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Cane et al., 1986; Barnett et al., 1988; Latif and Graham, 1992) is almost certainly related to this seasonal structure of the Southern Oscillation, which has been attributed to the somewhat variable and rather rapid onset of the Asian summer monsoon by Webster (1987)
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From page 79... ...
was formed to institute a routine interannual prediction effort This effort uses the best available model and data assimilation procedure to extend the skill and spatial and temporal range of the predictions, and to do the research and development necessary to accomplish these objectives (see Cane and Sarachik, 1991~. T-POP wars also formed to take advantage of the skill already indicated by statistical models and by the ZC model (see Barnett et al., 1988)
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From page 80... ...
As the complexities of fully coupled GCMs are being explored, considerable effort is being devoted to the problem of data assimilation and initialization. Both atmospheric and upper-ocean data need to be inserted, in a dynamically consistent manner, into a coupled model to gain the best possible estimate of the initial state from which predictions are made.
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From page 81... ...
(1993~. Solid contours are associated With positive height anomalies and dashed lines show negative height anomalies.
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From page 82... ...
Good predictions of the 500-mb height field over the northern Pacific and west coast of the United States result, with potentially useful skill for predicting rainfall over the western part of the United States (see Figure Am. A similar scheme is under development at the National Meteorological Center.
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