Review of Systemization of the Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility (1996) / Chapter Skim
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6 OVERVIEW OF SITE-SPECIFIC RISK ASSESSMENT
6 OVERVIEW OF SITE-SPECIFIC RISK ASSESSMENT
Pages 55-69
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From page 55... ...
It describes the Army's plans for risk assessment and risk management at the TOCDF and Tooele Army Depot chemical stockpile and their current status. Finally, it provides the committee's findings with respect to the chemical agent disposal facility risk management program.
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From page 56... ...
NRG hewer Report on the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program Risk Management Process Recommendations for Faci/ities in the Continenta/ United States In January 1993, the committee sent a letter report to the Assistant Secretary of the Arrny recommending specific actions to enhance the CSDP risk management process (NRC, 1993a)
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From page 57... ...
In a few difficult areas where methods have not yet been developed and data are sparse, SATC is convening expert panels to develop recommendations based on experience and expertise. SAIC is involved in other projects at the TOCDF and for the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program.
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From page 58... ...
, may not be directly comparable with the accident QRA results, and may not realistically address the probabilities of various possible releases. The Army should link the health risk assessment results with the accident QRA in one summary document describing the entire Tooele risk assessment and risk management program.
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From page 59... ...
The fifth recommendation was: As research progresses on potential alternative technologies and as their potential for improved safety becomes apparent, site 59 specific risk analyses should be reexamined, with the potential alternative substituted in the baseline system, to estimate overall system performance. In view of the limited potential for overall safety improvement, however, the disposal program should not be delayed pending completion of such research.
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From page 60... ...
The committee endorses the RMP approach and the integration of the TOCDF and site risk management. The committee has also observed the risk management process in action when the Army reviewed early accident QRA results, developed alternative plans for dealing with high-risk scenarios, evaluated them, and adjusted schedules for operations and actual plant hardware to eliminate unnecessary risks.
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From page 61... ...
interaction between project personnel and the QRA team is informal at this point. Nevertheless, the approaches utilized will serve as the basis for developing the analysis requirements documented in the Risk Management Plan.
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From page 62... ...
This assessment quantitatively analyzes the probability and consequences of accidental releases of agent at the TOCDF and the chemical stockpile from all conceivable accidents at the Tooele Army Depot. Both acute and latent effects of acute releases are calculated for both workers and the general public.
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From page 63... ...
For example, each element should be consistent in all parameters at the Tooele site that can affect risk, e.g., design, operation, weather, and demographics. ACCIDENT QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT The accident QRA of the TOCDF and the Tooele Army Depot stockpile is being performed for the Army by SAIC, a company whose analysts have extensive experience in quantitative, probabilistic risk assessment.
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From page 64... ...
For initiating events that could cause multiple upsets, the analysts use global event trees to consider simultaneous releases. Accident progression event trees continue to track the upset to evaluate the effectiveness of barriers to release (e.g., mitigation systems such as HVAC biters)
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From page 65... ...
Several members of the Expert Panel met with the QRA team at Edgewood on January 5-6, 1995, to review several technical aspects of the analysis in more detail. The Stockpile Committee monitoring of the review process began with the second full meeting of the Expert Panel on February 1-2, 1995.
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From page 66... ...
Results The second draft of the QRA for TOCDF campaigns 1 and 21 has been released and reviewed. The published version of the report will be released in the first quarter ITooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Quantitative Risk Assessment: Campaigns l and 2, SAIC-95/1006, prepared for U.S.
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From page 67... ...
The TOCDF QRA analyzes the acute and latent risks of both lethal and mild injuries to the public and site workers from accidental releases of agents. Thus the effects of normal operations like routine stack emissions are not included in this report.
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From page 68... ...
D r The QRA examines all potential causes of agent release during the two campaigns, including handling accidents (drops and impacts) , mechanical failure, aircraft crashes, and severe environmental hazards such as earthquakes and fires.
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From page 69... ...
When calculations could not eliminate concern, modifications to the operating plans and the system were developed to ensure that the chance of damage to the furnace and injury to nearby personnel would be reduced and would represent a very small contribution to total risk. As discussed earlier, the committee has several concerns about the current constituent parts of the TOCDF risk assessment.
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