Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts (1997) / Chapter Skim
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INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
Pages 5-14
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on Seismic Hazard Evaluation presents the panel's evaluation of the report Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR-6372, Washington, DC, 19974.
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effort to assess seismic and all other natural hazards is justified. The SSHAC project was born in the context of SHA for such critical facilities, nuclear power plants in particular.
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and EPRI of the earthquake hazard at nuclear power plant sites in the United
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Although the two studies ranked the many sites approximately the same (from most hazardous to least hazardous in terms of the mean hazard estimates) , the absolute hazard values for specific sites, in terms of the mean value of the annual probability of exceeding a specified level of ground motion, differed greatly, with the LLNL results consistently greater.
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* 2 FIGURE 1.1 Median, 15th, and 85th percentile hazard curves for three representative separated sites in the eastern United States, illustrating the differences in results of the LLNL and EPRI studies.
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, from which the following items are selectively cited to provide the context within which the SSHAC report was developed: Objective: To develop implementation guidelines, including recommended methodology, suitable for the performance of PSHA for seismic regulation of nuclear power plants and other critical facilities. Requirements and Guidelines (for the Implementation guidelines and methodology)
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· The outcome of this process will be the recommend ed methodology and implementation guidelines for PSHA in nuclear power plant licensing. The emphasis on methodology for doing PSHA as the central theme is reflected in the title of the SSHAC report.
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At this time, the pane} decided that it needed two additional members, one who could provide expertise in expert opinion analysis and decision science and one with extensive knowledge of both the deterministic and nrohabilistic approaches to seismic hazard assessment. analysis and the - - -- I 1 By May 1994 the focus of the SSHAC effort had changed, as noted above, from the reconciliation task to the more substantial and significant task of building on the lessons learned from prior experience in hazard assessment to develop scientifically sound procedures for doing PSHA.
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The letter report offered the panel's general comments on the SSHAC draft, a statement of concerns and problems, with suggestions for improvement, and a summary of specific scientific and technical concerns that the pane} thought should be addressed. A draft of the final SSHAC report was sent to the pane} on October 6, 1995.
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