Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts (1997) / Chapter Skim
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Pages 1-4
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SSHAC focused on process because previous PSHA studies have shown that different groups of experts can produce highly discrepant results. A second major theme in the SSHAC report is He treatment of uncertainties in data and models in arriving at stable estimates of seismic hazard at a selected site.
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The panel agrees that all PSHA projects should share the same basic principles and goals, but that the elaborate level 4 methodology is not required for every PSHA study. SSHAC does indeed recognize that alternate simpler methods are probably adequate for less critical facilities, but the simpler methods are not discussed in detail and the reader is not illlly advised about other sources of information.
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BACKGROUND WORKSHOPS SSHAC sponsored workshops on seismic source characterization, ground motion estimation, and earthquake magnitudes. These workshops are documented in detail in Appendixes A, B
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During the planning of a PSHA, a detailed analysis of uncertainty would be helpful but typically is not available. It may be sufficient for planning purposes to conduct limited sensitivity analyses, using bounding hypotheses, and to consider the level of effort that would be required to reduce the associated uncertainty.
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