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6: OUTSTANDING PROGRAM ISSUES
Pages 90-110

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From page 90...
... the downselect process and post-downselect issues; (3) leverage of foreign technology developments; (4)
From page 91...
... For example, a hydrogen fuel cell will have lower NO emissions than a CIDI engine, even though the CIDI meets the NOX emission standards; or different fuels may have different propensities for evaporative emissions.
From page 92...
... The results of the simulation enabled assessments to be made of the capital investments for fuel production and distribution facilities, the impact of fuelcycle energy and emissions, and the manufacturing effects of substituting lightweight materials. To date, the impact of PNGV Goal 3 vehicles on infrastructure
From page 93...
... In terms of the impact of energy and carbon monoxide, the predictions indicated that petroleum and hydrogen require the least total energy use, that renewable fuels use the least fossil fuel, and that renewable fuels produce the least carbon dioxide. Summary The effects of various fuels and power plants on pollutant emissions are summarized below: Volatile Organic Compounds · Fuel cells offer the greatest benefit.
From page 94...
... The infrastructure analysis is an important tool for the PNGV program. As the PNGV continues to refine its technology knowledge base and push toward downselect scenarios, it is important for power plant configurations and fuel types to be accurately represented in an infrastructure scenario and evaluated with the infrastructure model.
From page 95...
... TECHNOLOGY DOWNSELECT PROCESS The PNGV program was launched in September 1993, with the first major milestone scheduled for the end of 1997. The program plan was for the PNGV to select technologies for the concept vehicles that will be designed, developed, and fabricated by the year 2000.
From page 96...
... This has resulted in a steady decrease in the number of "inventions" needed; however, in some cases, estimates of development time and effort needed to become viable concept- and production-vehicle candidate technologies have been increased. Thus, it is likely that the more nonconventional technologies, such as fuel cells, gas turbines, Stirling engines, flywheels, and ultracapacitors, will require development beyond the current program time frame.
From page 97...
... A similar statement can be made about gas turbines, partly as a result of progress towards achieving practical ceramic turbines and recuperators, oil-less bearings, and automotive-type electronic controls. Similar advances have been made in other technologies that might not make the Goal 3 time frame but that have demonstrated significant long-term potential benefits.
From page 98...
... The PNGV should continue R&D on technologies that appear to have the potential for making important contributions towards meeting PNGV goals, even if they are beyond the 1997 downselect time frame. This recommendation is consistent with the committee's previous recommendations.
From page 99...
... The key word is "apparent." Not only do all of the OEMs, and many suppliers, have foreign operations and partners, but clearly it is in their best interests to monitor competitive foreign activities in relevant technologies. However, little information was presented to the committee to indicate that PNGY was receiving any substantial benefit from foreign technology developments.
From page 100...
... continuing to be active in the development of fuel cells; and (3) developing several hybrid vehicle concepts.
From page 101...
... Recommendations Based on its review of foreign technology developments, the committee makes the following recommendations. Recommendation.
From page 103...
... The availability of fuel cells, Stirling engines, and gas turbines that meet the cost and performance requirements of the PNGV program is substantially beyond the current time frame of the program. The CIDI engine is the energy converter with the highest potential of meeting the PNGV program performance requirements.
From page 104...
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From page 106...
... However, PNGV should reprogram development efforts and funding to be consistent with expected results within the current PNGV schedule through 2004. Investments in technology developments that may be successful beyond that schedule may be continued but should be more highly focused on solving specific problems.
From page 107...
... Most of the candidate technologies were under development and partly funded by the government prior to the PNGV (i.e., fuel cells, gas turbines, advanced batteries, advanced materials, low-emission combustion, advanced motor/generators, etc.~; others were under development by the international automobile industry (e.g., CIDI)
From page 108...
... Because applied resources have not increased significantly and the rate of development for relevant technologies has not increased sufficiently, a number of candidate technologies will not be able to meet the PNGV time schedule with acceptable risk. In the opinion of the committee, these are likely to include gas turbines, Stirling engines, fuel cells, some battery candidates, and flywheels.
From page 109...
... Thus, it is not clear to the committee at what level PNGY-related technology efforts being supported by the government will be continued in parallel with the industry's concept-vehicle demonstrations to provide a basis for future advancements in PNGV vehicle technology on a continuing basis, at least through the year 2004. It is the committee's view that relevant technology development specifically devoted to reducing risks identified in the PNGV demonstration configurations merit meaningful federal support, that is, support consistent with program needs and objectives.
From page 110...
... In the event that PNGV (industry and government) does not obtain and/or chooses not to increase the resource levels and thereby accelerate the pace of development, the PNGV partners should reconsider the viability of current PNGV program objectives with regard to performance, schedule, and cost.


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