The New Americans Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration (1997) / Chapter Skim
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3 The Face of the U.S. Population in 2050
3 The Face of the U.S. Population in 2050
Pages 76-134
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From page 76... ...
population growth and provided birth cohorts from 1946 to about 1963 that were much larger than those of either the decade before or after. The baby boom and the subsequent baby bust will have major ramifications over the next half century: the population will age as the babyboom generations become older; when they eventually retire, the number of retirees will be much larger than this country has ever seen.
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From page 77... ...
Different immigration assumptions, as will be seen, have substantial influence on the future path of population size and growth for the United States. The panel was not charged with examining the environmental repercussions of population change and does not discuss these issues in this report.
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From page 78... ...
We first examine why immigration is important for population change. Next, a model for population projection is briefly described, and the alternative assumptions used here to illustrate future population change are set out.
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From page 79... ...
If we rely on the world population projections prepared by the United Nations (1995) , anticipating results for the United States that are discussed later, the population of the world and the United States will grow through the year 2050.
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From page 80... ...
We refer to the four groups broadly as ethnic groups in this chapter. The main implication of the official classification system is that population projections for the Hispanic population overlap with the overall projections for the main race groups in official government projections.
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From page 81... ...
Except for arithmetic errors, the projections presented here must, in a special sense, be accurate because they derive logically 5Among various methods for making population projections, cohort-component approaches are commonly used for making projections by age and sex. Cohort-component methods involve making separate assumptions for the components of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration.
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From page 82... ...
Second, generational characteristics refine the modeling of immigrants, who usually enter the United States as first-generation, foreign-born individuals, and 6Population projections have had a long history of debate about viewing their results. In general, most demographers emphasize the analytical credibility of the projection model, the plausibility of the assumptions, and the usefulness of a range of assumptions for understanding future population change (Romaniuc, 1990)
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From page 83... ...
Most users of population projections need to be able to regard them as plausible. "Plausible," in this context, means that the conditions for demographic dynamics could be regarded as likely for the future course of fertility, mortality, and international migration.
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From page 84... ...
. The age-sex distributions for the four immigrant generations in each ethnic group were taken from fitted projections of the U.S.
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From page 85... ...
Higher fertility rates will make the future population larger, and subgroups with higher than average fertility will grow relative to others. Since 1971, the Census Bureau has published fertility estimates in a special supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS)
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From page 86... ...
Fertility rates for Asians three or more generations out are similar to those for the white population. Fertility estimates in the June 1994 CPS for the Hispanic population appear to be lower than those assumed in the Census Bureau's projections.
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From page 87... ...
Although we hold total fertility rates constant within immigrant generations, we emphasize that overall total fertility rates may change over the projection period, as each race and Hispanic group shifts its immigrant generation composition. Mortality Assumptions We assume that mortality follows the trends specified in the medium series of the national population projections for 1995 to 2050 made by the Census Bureau.
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From page 88... ...
We use the same lower and higher mortality assumptions as are used for the Census Bureau's 1995 national population projections. For the low, medium, and high mortality assumptions, we assume the same levels of mortality, by sex and for each race and Hispanic group, for 1995.
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From page 89... ...
The very high assumption suggests greatly expanded immigration.l3 For the actual population projections, we make separate assumptions about immigration and emigration. For the five net immigration assumptions, we assume immigration levels of 0, 700,000, 1,040,000, 1,360,000, and 1,720,000 in conjunction with emigration levels of 0, 290,000, 220,000, 130,000, and 80,000.
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From page 90... ...
Conventional population projections assume that persons of different major racial/ethnic groups do not have children together and that all children will be of the same racial/ethnic identity as their parents. We address changes in the racial/ ethnic identification in two ways in this chapter.
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From page 91... ...
Intermarriage data from the census have a handicap for population projections: a significant proportion of births occurs to persons or couples who are not married. We use special tabulations from the National Center for Health Statistics based on complete birth registration data for 1994.
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From page 92... ...
Our overall results are that 92 percent of births to a white mother have a white father; 90 percent of births to a black mother have a black father; the ratio is 66 percent for Asian mothers, and for Hispanic mothers it is 68 percent. We use separate estimates for immigrant generations, so the initial overall exogamy rates change over time, increasing particularly for the Asian and Hispanic groups, since they have a greater proportion of persons in the later immigrant generations (Appendix 3.B: Table 3.B3 presents the final exogamy estimates for the population projections)
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From page 93... ...
Current attribution rates form a medium assumption, in contrast with a continuation of the conventional baseline assumptions for population projections. And we vary the current attribution rates to illustrate realistic changes in low and high attribution rates (see Appendix 3.B: Table 3.B)
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From page 94... ...
The Census Bureau makes population projections for states; however, their projections do not separately display different immigration assumptions. Most states also prepare population projections, although they do not appear to examine separately the effect of different U.S.
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From page 95... ...
Of the 124 million additional people living in 2050 under the medium immigration assumption, 80 million will be the direct or indirect ~ e e e consequence of ~mm~grahon. Table 3.3 also displays what population growth would be under realistic ranges of alterations in immigration policy.
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From page 96... ...
The outcome is a steady increase to 463 million in 2050.22 Components of Change What underlies the effects the various immigration scenarios have on population? Although the five immigration scenarios in the population projections assume a constant annual number of net immigrants, the annual net immigration rate23 will change as the population grows.
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From page 97... ...
1995-2000 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 2005-2010 4.5 5.1 5.5 6.0 6.4 2015-2020 3.8 4.6 5.2 5.8 6.3 2025-2030 1.4 2.6 3.5 4.3 5.0 2035-2040 -0.4 1.4 2.6 3.5 4.3 2045-2050 0.0 1.9 3.1 4.1 4.9 Net immigration rate (per 1,000) 1995-2000 0.0 1.6 3.1 4.8 6.3 2005-2010 0.0 1.4 2.9 4.2 5.6 2015-2020 0.0 1.3 2.7 3.8 4.9 2025-2030 0.0 1.3 2.5 3.5 4.5 2035-2040 0.0 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.0 2045-2050 0.0 1.2 2.2 3.1 3.8 Under the medium immigration assumption, the crude birth rate would decline slightly between 1995 and 2050.
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From page 98... ...
Probably more important, however, from a demographic perspective, is the extent to which the population resides in environmentally sensitive areas and the per capita environmental effects of the population. 24Given the very high immigration assumption, the crude birth rate would remain virtually unchanged, the crude death rate would increase moderately, and the rate of natural increase would decline from 6.0 per 1,000 to 4.9 over the next half-century.
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From page 99... ...
A weighting of the factors should enter into an evaluation of the environmental effects of immigration. AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION Even with zero net migration, a population's age and sex composition will shift if the characteristics of the immigrants and emigrants differ.
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From page 100... ...
100 of a' ·_4 VO o .5 ·_4 o a' C)
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From page 101... ...
Perhaps the single most common index of population aging is the median age of the population the age that divides the younger half of the population from 26We assume that there are more females in all of our immigration assumptions, ranging from 56 percent female for the low immigration assumption to 52 percent female for the high and very high immigration assumptions. The impact of a slightly predominant female immigration flow is modest and changes the sex ratio for the total population only slightly.
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From page 102... ...
Under the low net immigration assumption, the population 42 40 38 36 .m 34 32 30 28 26 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year FIGURE 3.4 Median age of the U.S. population: Observed population, 1950-1995; pro jected population under five immigration assumptions, 1995-2050.
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From page 103... ...
With low net immigration, the school-age population would expand more slowly to 67.9 mfllion in 2050 whereas under the high net immigration assumption, there will be 86.6 million in 2050.28 If school enrollment rates, by age group and nativity, are unchanged from 1995, we can make estimates for future school enrollments.29 The number of school-age children will expand rapidly. Under current immigration policy, the K-8 enrollment will increase to 53.7 million in 2050, compared with 36.8 million in 1995 (an increase of about 17 million)
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From page 104... ...
Under the high net immigration assumption, growth will be at a faster pace, with the young adult population reaching 56.6 million in 2050.33 The next chapter discusses the implications of such a change on the labor market outcomes of native-born work ers. The implications of these changes for college enrollments can be derived 3iUnder the zero net immigration assumption, school enrollment in grades 9 to 12 in 2050 will still be greater than in 1995, increasing to 15.1 million.
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From page 105... ...
These enrollments will be incremented or decremented by more than 2 million students by the plausible range of immigration assumptions. Working Age The impacts of demographic trends on growth in the labor force, which comprises those aged 20 to 64, have received less public attention.
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From page 106... ...
It stood at 33.6 million in 1995, and could double from 73.0 to 80.6 million, depending on the net immigration assumptions. Under the medium assumption, the elderly population will rise to 39.1 million in 2010, then will increase steadily as the baby-boom cohort begins to reach age 65 in large numbers.
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From page 107... ...
55 0 50 au ~ 45 o c' au au Q au 40 35 30 Zero Low - Medium High - Very high Observed ,~;Z'Ct ~ b~ 82, ~2 ~ ~,,,,- I'd 2 ._, 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year 2030 2040 2050 FIGURE 3.5 Youth dependency ratio: Observed population, 1950-1995; projected population under five immigration assumptions, 1995-2050. Note: dependency ratio defined as number of dependents 0-19 years of age per 100 persons aged 20-64 years.
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From page 108... ...
Under the zero or very high net immigration assumptions, the youth dependency ratio will range from 30 to 34 per 100. 4lIf zero immigration is assumed, the ratio will peak at 34 per 100 in 2035, before diminishing somewhat to 32 per 100 in 2050.
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From page 109... ...
_ ~ 25 <1, 20 15 109 Or. W/ Zero ~.~.~...f ~.~.~.~.~.'.'.'." -- - - - - Low Medium ~ High - Very high ~ Observed 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 FIGURE 3.6 Elderly dependency ratio: Observed population, 1950-1995; projected population under five immigration assumptions, 1995-2050.
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From page 110... ...
Immigration policy will have a declining influence on the population as the age group considered increases. In the extreme, different immigration assumptions have little influence on the rapid growth of the population aged 80 years and over.
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From page 111... ...
The foreign-born population has been increasing since 1970 and numbered 25.2 million in 1995. Under the medium net immigration assumptions, the foreign-born population will grow throughout the projection period, nearly doubling and reaching 46.7 million in 2050 (see Figure 3.9~.
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From page 112... ...
400 °~ 200 Q o to Fourth plus Third O Second First 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year FIGURE 3.10 U.S. population by immigrant generations: Observed population, 19501995; projected population under medium immigration assumption, 1995-2050.
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From page 113... ...
First, the critical assumption of ethnic groups as ascriptively defined populations with fixed boundaries may be a very tenuous one, historically and for the future. Second, racial and ethnic population projections are being used, often without careful thought or reflection, as firm demographic evidence to show that American society and culture is being threatened by continued immigration.
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From page 114... ...
The range of the projected black populations for 2050 varies only from 52 to 56 million for the low to high net immigration assumptions. In contrast, both the Asian and Hispanic population will grow rapidly under current immigration policy.
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From page 115... ...
Although fertility levels for the foreignborn Asian population is slightly above average, the sizable future growth stems from the large number of immigrants added to the Asian population. Based on the low to high immigration assumptions, the Asian population in 2050 may range from 26 to 42 million.
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From page 116... ...
This sensitivity can be illustrated by varying assumptions about racial/ethnic reporting, holding constant the immigration assumption at current levels. Table 3.8 presents results with alternative ethnic attribution assumptions.
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From page 117... ...
Although the Hispanic population is expected to expand rapidly, its growth will be magnified by moderate levels of exogamy and attribution rates above 50 percent (see Appendix 3.B: Tables 3.B3 and 3.B4) , resulting in growth rates greater than baseline assumptions.
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From page 118... ...
Population Very Low Low Half Medium High Very High White 1950 1970 1990 1995 2020 2050 Black 1950 1970 1990 1995 2020 2050 Asian 1950 1970 1990 1995 2020 2050 Hispanic 1950 1970 1990 1995 2020 2050 134.4 170.4 187.1 193.6 191.0 207.0 210.0 175.5 195.2 203.9 15.7 23.0 30.0 209.1 211.3 215.3 201.4 207.8 220.3 31.6 37.5 41.6 41.9 41.9 43.0 43.7 43.2 51.1 52.3 53.7 56.4 59.2 .7 1.8 7.3 8.8 19.8 17.3 19.1 27.9 31.3 35.2 4.0 9.6 22.4 26.9 43.7 51.5 52.2 64.5 85.0 87.8 19.6 20.2 21.4 33.7 36.5 42.9 53.7 56.0 57.9 94.7 105.5 115.2 Note: Assumed level of ethnic attribution for multiple-ancestry persons is: Very low = 0 percent; Low = .2 less than medium assumption; Half = 50 percent; Medium = attribution rates estimated from 1990 census data, see Table 3.B4; High = .2 greater than medium assumption; Very high = 100 percent. Hispanic population is likely to increase in number from 85 to 106 million in 2o5o.46 These projections imply substantial growth in multiple-ancestry persons, re 46The white population has low exogamy rates and attribution rates below 50 percent, resulting in population growth that is less than expected from conventional baseline assumptions.
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From page 119... ...
First, they would have had to deal with all the vagaries of population projections about fertility, mortality, and immigration. Common to all projections is that the world changes, that basic demographic parameters will vary in the future in ways that cannot be fully anticipated, and thus that assumptions exogamy rates and high attribution rates for multiple-ancestry persons.
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From page 120... ...
Of the 8.8 million persons in 1995 whose primary ethnic identification was Asian, the vast majority (8.1 million) had only Asian ancestry.
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From page 121... ...
. By 2050, through high fertility and continued intermarriage, the multiple-ancestry Hispanic population will expand to 51 million persons, or 45 percent of all persons with some Hispanic ancestry.
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From page 122... ...
This future population is simulated under five immigration scenarios, wherein the baseline scenario represents continuation of current policies of about 800,000 net immigrants per year. In addition, our simulations use four other immigration assumptions: net immigration of zero, 410,000 per year, 1.23 million, and 1.64 million per year.
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From page 123... ...
By 2050, the relative size of the white population will decline to 51 percent, the black population will increase only slightly to 14 percent, and the Asian and Hispanic populations will reach much higher levels, 8 and 26 percent, respectively. The Asian and Hispanic populations will increase under any immigration scenario.
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From page 124... ...
Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York. United Nations 1995 World Population Projections.
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From page 125... ...
. Consider a population defined with the following characteristics: pt population size for age x at time t, St,t+5 x rates for population age x surviving to age x+5 during the period from t to t+5, and Ft x ,~ age-specific fertility rates for women age x at time t.
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From page 126... ...
Define t,t+5 Xas in-migrants age x during the period t to t+5 and ox~t+5 as out-migrants age x during the period t to t+5, each separate by sex. Then the net migrants age x during the period t to t+5 is ~ rt~t+5 _ rt~t+5 _ ot,t+5 x lVx - lx The impact of international migration on the population alive at the beginning of a five-year projection period is: Nt t+5 (1 + St~t+5 ~ + Nt t+5 (1 + St~t+5 4 and
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From page 127... ...
Equation 3 for total births is affected by migration and reflects births to the resident population plus births to the net immigrants during the period: Bt,t+s = S >, pt (Ft + St t+5FXt+5 ) + B~t't+5 x=15 where births to net immigrants is: 5 45 Nt,t+s (Ftst,t+sFt+s x=15 The population aged O to 4 years is also altered by international migration: pt+5 = Bt,t+s5t,t+s + No' (1 + JO t+5 )
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From page 128... ...
The population aged 0 to 4 years for the second and third generations results from births to mothers in the first and second generations, respectively, plus the effect of net migration: Pot+kS = Bt,t+s SO k_!
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From page 129... ...
and indicate second-generation ancestry. Because some females marry males with a lower-order immigrant generation than themselves, the observed generational composition of births (and the resulting population aged O to 4 years)
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From page 130... ...
Populations with few immigrants, in contrast, would have an intergenerational birth matrix that more closely resembles the female dominant perspective. For the population projections presented here, we assume that each racial/ ethnic group has an intergenerational birth matrix in 1990 that is estimated from 1989 CPS data, for the particular racial/ethnic group.
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From page 131... ...
TABLE 3.B1 Mortality Assumptions for Life Expectancy at Birth for U.S. National Population Projections by Race and Hispanic Origin, 1995 and 2050 1995 2050 Race/Ethnicity Low Medium High Low Medium High White Male 73.6 73.6 73.6 72.6 81.9 87.5 Female 80.0 80.0 80.0 79.8 85.3 92.9 Asian Male 79.6 79.6 79.6 78.6 83.9 87.5 Female 80.2 80.2 80.2 79.8 85.0 89.3 Black Male 64.5 64.5 64.5 62.2 69.5 80.8 Female 74.3 74.3 74.3 73.4 78.8 89.8 Hispanic Male 74.9 74.9 74.9 73.1 84.4 85.5 Female 82.2 82.2 82.2 81.7 89.6 91.4 Source: Mortality assumptions made in national population projections of the U.S.
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From page 132... ...
TABLE 3.B3 Exogamy Estimates for Ethnic Groups by Immigrant Generation Immigrant Generation Race/Ethnicity First Second Third Fourth+ White Asian Black Hispanic .08 .10 .09 .13 .34 .12 .32 .10 .57 .08 .08 .54 .10 .57 Source: Panel estimates using 1990 census microdata and 1994 birth data from the National Center for Health Statistics.
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From page 133... ...
In contrast, the cumulative effects of immigration and fertility are greater. Different immigration assumptions, ranging from low to high, will result in population size differences of 10 percent.
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From page 134... ...
Population Size Relative to Medium-Level Assumptions Under Alternative Immigration, Fertility, and Mortality Assumptions, 1995 2050 Immigration Fertility Mortality Medium Low High Low High High Low 1995 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 2000 100 99 101 99 100 100 100 2010 100 97 103 98 102 99 101 2020 100 96 104 96 104 98 102 2030 100 94 106 94 106 96 103 2040 100 92 108 91 110 95 104 2050 100 90 110 88 114 93 106
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