From Death to Birth Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change (1998) / Chapter Skim
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6 Infant Mortality and the Fertility Transistion: Macro Evidence from Europe and New Findings from Prussia
6 Infant Mortality and the Fertility Transistion: Macro Evidence from Europe and New Findings from Prussia
Pages 182-226
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From page 182... ...
INTRODUCTION Most attempts to understand secular fertility decline include some allusion to the European experience. It is generally thought that little or no relationship existed between fertility decline and infant mortality decline in Europe, or that the findings from relevant studies are inconsistent.
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From page 183... ...
LEE, AND EUGENE A HAMMEL 183 for a positive association between the fertility level and the infant mortality level, as well as a positive association between fertility change and infant mortality change.
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From page 184... ...
Furthermore, higher mortality would free land holdings and create other economic opportunities permitting new marriages that would have high fertility. In existing unions, high infant and child mortality would interrupt breastfeeding, eliminating its contraceptive effects, and therefore lead to earlier conceptions and a temporary increase in fertility.
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From page 185... ...
are nearly always at least 5 years apart, and because it is very likely that the level of infant mortality rates at year t will be highly correlated with the level of infant mortality rates at years t- 2, t- 3, or t - 4. using Prussian data and the model shown in Appendix Table 6A2, we added the variable infant mortality lagged 5 years and found that, in the fixed effects model which estimates changes, the regression estimate on infant mortality with no lag was 0.267 whereas the regression estimate on infant mortality lagged 5 years was -0.062, suggesting that the lagged variable was relatively unimportant.
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From page 186... ...
Although infant mortality rates can generally be found in most historical registration material, the more detailed measures of child mortality are often unavailable. However, in a high infant mortality regime, the bulk of infant and child deaths will be infant deaths, and infant mortality should be very highly correlated with infant and child mortality combined.
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From page 187... ...
Plots of each of the six graphs reveal essentially a straight line with no outliers. It seems likely that the infant mortality rate is an adequate proxy for infant and child mortality when using aggregate data in high infant mortality populations.
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From page 188... ...
88 MACRO EVIDENCE FROM EUROPE AND NEW FINDINGS FROM PRUSSIA 1~0 and 15qO of males in C;errnany 0~400 0.35a 0~3~ onto 0.200 0.150 0.100 at o 5t of 1 o 5 ~ i, 1871-18~0 1881-18GO 1891-19~ 1901-1910 191~1911 1924-1026 Percent change in 1~0 and 1 5qO of males in Germany o : .~ o1~D _~ FIGURE 6-1 Level and change of male infant and child mortality rates in Germany, 1871-1926. SOURCE: Statistischen Reichsamt (1930:168~.
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From page 189... ...
For example, they would not reflect the possible development of social institutions to motivate high fertility in the face of high mortality. When we estimate this model, which includes fixed effects, therefore, the estimated coefficients should reflect only the medium-term adjustment processes that we believe to be particularly informative for policy considerations.
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From page 190... ...
However, we have taken a rather eclectic approach to inclusion of socioeconomic influences on fertility and have not imposed any mathematical structure on the relations to be estimated beyond the usual assumption that our linear model approximates some true but unknown nonlinear specification. One of the findings from our review of earlier research on fertility decline in Europe is that many studies that purport to say something about fertility decline (change)
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From page 191... ...
We also generate "within" or "fixed-effects" estimators, regressions that allow each Kreis or city to have its own intercept. This effectively measures how changes in our independent variables affect changes in our dependent variable and is the more appropriate approach for explaining fertility change.6 We have dealt at length with the theoretical expectations and empirical findings of fertility decline in 407 Prussian Kreise (Galloway et al., 1994)
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From page 192... ...
At the same time, it does not reflect the particular influence of either breastfeeding conditions or of fertility and therefore should not correlate with marital fertility. Unfortunately, age-specific death rates are available only for Regierungsbezirke (very large areas, similar to provinces)
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From page 193... ...
Instruments for the general marital fertility rate include proportion of workers employed in religious occupations, mining, and manufacturing; measures of the development of financial services; and the married sex ratio (a measure of spousal separation)
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From page 194... ...
remain highly significantly greater than zero, but they also are decreased in size by 30 or 40 percent. Although our preferred estimates are those with only areal fixed effects, those with period effects also indicate a positive influence of infant mortality on fertility, on the whole.
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From page 195... ...
OVERVIEW OF PREVIOUS RESEARCH Nearly all earlier studies of European historical fertility decline regress levels of fertility on levels of independent variables. Although this strategy does tell us something about fertility levels, it tells us little about fertility change.
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From page 196... ...
examined fertility decline using his estimate of secular fertility decline in 71 provinces of Germany for the period 1875-1910, along with levels of religion, bank account, sectoral employment, literacy, and the infant mortality rate (which was sometimes positively and sometimes negatively associated with Ig decline, depending on which measures of fertility decline from onset that Knodel used)
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From page 197... ...
studied the general marital fertility rate (GMFR) in 619 urban districts of England and Wales for four periods from 1871 to 1911, along with single woman labor force participation rate, income, migration, literacy, sectoral employment, and child mortality (which was significantly positively associated with the GMFR in 1911, but negative and insignificant in 1871,1881, i6In much of the earlier research (Livi Bacci, 1971, on Portugal, Knodel, 1974, on Germany, and Coale et al., 1979, on Russia)
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From page 198... ...
(neg.) National 590 OLS Urban 222 OLS Rural 368 OLS Towns 101 OLS National 600 OLS POS France 81 OLS POS Germany National 71 OLS POS National 71 OLS Prussian Kreise 407 OLS Prussian Kreise 407 TSLS Prussian cities 54 OLS Prussian cities 54 TSLS Italy North and central 53 OLS neg South 34 OLS NEG Veneto 57 OLS (neg.)
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From page 200... ...
The number below the sign is the elasticity, defined as the estimated coefficient multiplied by the mean of infant or child mortality divided by the mean of marital fertility. It is calculated wherever possible.
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From page 201... ...
(1991:341) examined Ig in 600 districts of England and Wales for the period around 1870-1890 along with density, sectoral employment, females not in the labor force, urban proximity, and life expectancy at birth (which was significantly and negatively associated with Ig)
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From page 202... ...
202 · _4 ·_4 .~ o Cq o 0 Cq Cq a' be a' o ~ ~ a' I an no o 50 ~ ·0 VO Cq .
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From page 203... ...
(1994:152) analyzed general marital fertility in 407 Kreise covering all of Prussia using the average of quinquennial data from 1875 to 1910 along with religion, ethnicity, education, health, female labor force participation, income, mining, urbanization, financial, insurance, communication, sex ratio, and legitimate infant mortality variables.
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From page 204... ...
examined Ig in 92 provinces for the periods 1881, 1911, and 1931 along with urbanization, sectoral employment, literacy, proportion married, and infant mortality rate in north and central Italy and south Italy. In north and central Italy infant mortality rate was insignificant in 1881, but positively and significantly associated with Ig in 1911 and 1931.
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From page 205... ...
Mosk (1983:256-257) also studied Ig in the rural sector of 25 Swedish counties in 1900 along with sectoral employment, agricultural wage, social structure, and legitimate infant mortality rate, which was significantly positively associated with Ig.
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From page 206... ...
Among all the independent variables, legitimate infant mortality was the fourth most important in terms of contribution to predicted change in average GMFR from 1875 to 1910, just behind female labor force participation, insurance, and communication variables (Galloway et al., 1994:156~. A two-stage least-squares model also yielded a positive and significant association between fertility change and infant mortality change (see Appendix Table 6-A3~.
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From page 207... ...
examined change in the crude birth rate in 375 districts for the period from 1871 to 1890 along with change in density; change in crude death rate; and levels of net migration, religion, density, literacy, and soil type. Change in the crude death rate was significantly and positively associated with change in the crude birth rate.
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From page 208... ...
Although the study of fertility level may be interesting, analysis of fertility change is most relevant to demographic transition theory. Table 6-2 summarizes the ten regressions that examine the effects of changes in infant and child mortality on changes in fertility.
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From page 209... ...
This suggests that the fertility of urban populations in Prussia was much more responsive to mortality changes than that of rural populations. A possible explanation for the high urban elasticity might be that urban couples may have become relatively more aware of infant mortality decline and its relation to infant and child survivorship, which may in turn have caused them to reduce fertility at a relatively faster rate (as measured by elasticity)
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From page 210... ...
Let the number of children surviving to some age, say 15 years, be SF = (1 QjF, where F is the total number of births born over the reproductive years of a woman, and S is the survival probability from birth to age 15. Whereas in earlier equations M referred to general child mortality, here we use Q = i5qo and q = TO for specific measures, and S = 1 - TO and s = 1 - RIO for their complements.
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From page 211... ...
NOTES: Only interpretable estimates are included. Mean is 2.1 1 The dark shading indicates statistically significant estimates.
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From page 212... ...
For changes, the mean of (dFldqjlF is about 3.40. It is worth considering the possible role of the lactation interruption effect in bringing about a positive causal effect of infant mortality on marital fertility.
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From page 213... ...
In our actual two-stage least-squares estimates, we find that this product in Prussian Kreise is 0.53 (Appendix tables 6-A3 and 6-A6) and in Prussian cities 0.95 (Appendix tables 6-A4 and 6-A7)
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From page 214... ...
The evidence appears even stronger in studies that examine the association of changes in infant mortality with changes in marital fertility, which is more appropriate for examining secular fertility decline and most relevant for policy issues. In every case, changes in infant mortality are positively associated with changes in fertility and most are significant.
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From page 215... ...
Nonetheless, we believe that the repeated estimation of positive associations, particularly with instrumental variables and fixed-effects models, likely does reflect a true and substantial effect of mortality change on fertility change. In the case of Prussia, we have been able to include an unusually extensive array of variables measuring differing aspects of socioeconomic change, and we still find strong positive effects of mortality change on change in fertility.
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From page 216... ...
Bank Insurance Communications Population Infant mortality Married sex ratio Kreis born City born Sanitation ASDR NOTES: For details and sources see Galloway et al.
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From page 217... ...
) Expected Sign Dependent In dep en dent GMFR Catholic Slav Church Education Health FLFPR Income Mining Urban Bank Insurance Communications Infant mortality Married sex ratio GMFR Catholic Slav Church Education Health FLFPR Income Mining Manufacturing + + + + Bank Insurance Communications Population Infant mortality Married sex ratio + NOTES: In equation (1)
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From page 218... ...
Age-specific death rate for males aged 30-34 is used as an instrument for Infant Mortality in the two-stage least-squares regressions for both level and change. The two-stage least-squares t statistics are based on the structural residuals (Hall et al., 1992:133-134)
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From page 219... ...
LEE, AND EUGENE A HAMMEL TABLE 6-A4 Equation (2~: Summary of Ordinary and Two-Stage Least-Squares Fertility Regression Results for Cities in Prussia, 1875-1910 (dependent variable is GMFR)
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From page 220... ...
) Dependent In dep en dent Infant mortality Catholic Slav Education Health FLFPR Income Urban Communications GMFR Kreis born Infant mortality Catholic Slav Education Health FLFPR Income Communications Population GMFR City born Sanitation NOTES: In equation (3)
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From page 221... ...
LEE, AND EUGENE A HAMMEL TABLE 6-A6 Equation (3~: Summary of Ordinary and Two-Stage Least-Squares Infant Mortality Regression Results for Kreise in Prussia, 1875-1910 (dependent variable is infant mortality rate)
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From page 222... ...
Church, Mining, Manufacturing, Bank, Insurance, and Married sex ratio are used as instruments for GMFR in the two-level least-squares regressions for both level and change. The two-stage least-squares t statistics are based on the structural residuals (Hall et al., 1992:133-134)
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From page 223... ...
1968 Early fertility decline in Austria-Hungary: A lesson in demographic transition. Daedalus 97(2)
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From page 224... ...
Hammel, and R.D. Lee 1994 Fertility decline in Prussia 1875 to 1910: A pooled cross-section time series analysis.
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From page 225... ...
Teitelbaum, M.S. 1984 The British Fertility Decline: Demographic Transition in the Crucible of the Industrial Revolution.
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From page 226... ...
Yule, G.U. 1906 On the changes in the marriage and birth rates in England and Wales during the past half century; with an inquiry as to their probable causes.
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